DailyIQ
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Sector:Consumer DefensiveAll sectors
Last updated 3 minutes ago

SJM·The J. M. Smucker Company

$.
-. (-.%)
Pre-Market
High
$111.60
Open
$111.60
Market Cap
11.93B
52W High
$119.39
Low
$111.50
P. Close
$111.65
P/E
-
52W Low
$88.25
Fwd P/E
10.42
DailyIQ Est.
$124.57
Technical Score (1D)
91
BUY
News Sentiment
47
MIXED
SJM’s latest earnings, released 30 days ago, fell short of analyst expectations on EPS, prompting a negative market reaction. The company reported modest revenue growth but left EPS guidance uncertain, raising concerns about its ability to sustain profitability in a competitive snack market. At the same time, unit sales have declined for two consecutive years, and analysts project a 3.2 % revenue drop over the next 12 months, indicating ongoing demand erosion. The company’s strategy of relying on price hikes has not offset the sales slump, further stressing margins and raising questions about long‑term profitability. Insider activity shows the Chief People Officer sold 5,000 shares on June 29, 2026, and the Chief Legal Officer sold 4,353 shares on June 26, 2026, which could signal short‑term confidence concerns among executives. Meanwhile, SJM has benefited from mid‑single‑digit deflation in green coffee costs and low‑single‑digit inflation in packaging, ingredients, and transportation, which should support a resilient demand environment for core brands. The company has not yet committed to permanent price cuts for its Folgers line, so any margin boost from lower commodity costs remains contingent on sustained price reductions and consumer demand. Given the current earnings miss, declining sales, and insider sell‑offs, traders should monitor the next earnings guidance for clarity on EPS targets and any adjustments to the dividend policy. Additionally, keep an eye on coffee price volatility and competitive pricing moves, as these will determine whether the cost advantage translates into sustained margin growth. Finally, watch for any changes in the company’s product‑mix strategy, as shifting focus toward higher‑margin categories could mitigate the impact of demand erosion.
Earnings Summary
The J.M. Smucker Company is a global consumer‑packaged‑goods firm that markets a portfolio of well‑known brands such as Folgers, Jif, and Meow Mix across supermarkets, club stores, and online channels. Operating in the consumer‑defensive packaged foods industry, Smucker’s relies on brand equity and a broad distribution network to sustain sales. In the last two quarters, revenue rose modestly from $2.339 billion in Q3 2026 to $2.268 billion in Q4 2026, a slight decline of about 3%, while EPS improved from $2.38 to $2.77, a 16% increase, reversing the prior quarter’s 17% EPS decline. Compared with Q1 2025 ($2.144 billion) and Q2 2025 ($2.113 billion), revenue had been flat, and EPS had fallen from $2.31 to $1.90, indicating margin pressure. Across six quarters, Smucker’s has alternated between earnings beats and misses—beats in Q4 2024, Q1 2025, Q3 2025, and Q4 2026, misses in Q2 2025 and Q3 2026—showing a mixed but generally resilient earnings profile. Historically, revenue has hovered around $2.1–$2.3 billion with modest YoY growth, while EPS has fluctuated around $2.0–$2.8, reflecting the impact of commodity costs and pricing strategies. Recent news reports a Q4 2024 earnings miss on EPS despite modest revenue growth, raising concerns about margin erosion and competitive pressure; insider sales by senior executives and a projected 3.2% revenue decline over the next year add to short‑term uncertainty. Forward‑looking watch points include the upcoming Q1 2027 earnings call for guidance on pricing, cost‑control measures, and dividend policy, as well as any updates on product mix adjustments or commodity cost trends that could clarify whether the recent sales decline is temporary or indicative of deeper structural weakness.

EPS

EstBeatMiss
$1.77$2.05$2.33$2.62$2.90Q1'25Q2'25Q3'25Q3'26Q4'26Q1'27
QtrEstActual+/−
Q1'27$2.20 - -
Q4'26$2.64$2.77+5.0%
Q3'26$2.72$2.38-12.4%
Q3'25$2.10$2.10-0.0%
Q2'25$1.93$1.90-1.4%
Q1'25$2.25$2.31+2.8%

Revenue

EstBeatMiss
$2.1B$2.2B$2.2B$2.3B$2.4BQ1'25Q2'25Q3'25Q3'26Q4'26Q1'27
QtrEstActual+/−
Q1'27$2.1B - -
Q4'26$2.3B$2.3B-0.6%
Q3'26$2.3B$2.3B+1.4%
Q3'25 - $2.3B -
Q2'25 - $2.1B -
Q1'25 - $2.1B -
Full Earnings BreakdownEstimates, actuals, guidance, and historical context
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Market Data

SJM Stock Snapshot

SJM is currently trading at $111.50, giving The J. M. Smucker Company a market cap of 11.93B. Today's range spans $111.50–$111.60, with shares opening at $111.60 and moving down $0.15 (0.1%) from the prior close. DailyIQ's technical score sits at 91/100 (BUY) with a news sentiment reading of 47/100.

Over the past year SJM has traded between $88.25 and $119.39 - the current price is +26.3% off the 52-week low and -6.6% from the high. 26 analysts cover the stock with a Hold consensus and a mean 12-month target of $122.31 (range $98.00–$135.00), implying upside of +9.7%.

Growth-oriented Consumer Defensive investors looking for technical confirmation find it in SJM: BUY signal, 91/100 score, neutral sentiment at 47/100, price $111.50 (in the upper portion of its 52-week range). The 11.93B market cap is the sweet spot - big enough to absorb institutional sizing, small enough to move materially on conviction. Annual range: $88.25–$119.39.

What makes SJM's BUY setup (91/100) particularly actionable at 11.93B in Consumer Defensive capitalization is the scale-to-move ratio: large enough to feature on institutional mandates but not so large that the percentage upside is already compressed by index inertia. At $111.50 (in the upper portion of its 52-week range in $88.25–$119.39), with sentiment running neutral at 47/100, the setup rewards conviction-sized positioning more than it does speculative small bets.