HWM·Howmet Aerospace Inc.

Realized volatility (21d)

54.1% 90th pct

Below its peak

-24.3%

vs 200-day average

-9.2%

Up days (1y)

52%

Howmet Aerospace Inc. is currently running 54.1% annualised volatility over the last 21 sessions. Measured against HWM's own 13 years of daily returns rather than a market-wide average, that is the 90th percentile — an extreme by its own standards, against a typical reading of 30.8%. The distinction matters because a number that looks calm for one stock is turbulent for another, and the absolute figure on its own tells you neither.

HWM is trading -24.3% below its running peak. Across 12 full years on file, its median worst-drawdown-in-a-year was -22.8%, and the deepest was -64.8% in 2020. The current drawdown is already deeper than this stock's typical annual low point, which puts it in the part of its range where past recoveries began — and where past declines also continued.

Price sits -9.2% from its 200-day moving average. Against every other day in its history, that gap ranks at the 17th percentile — a narrower gap than it typically runs. Over the past year HWM closed higher on 52% of sessions, and it is currently 2 sessions into a falling streak.

On September specifically: over 14 years of records, HWM finished the month higher 6 of 14 times, with a median return of -1.2% and an average of -1.4%. Its strongest month historically has been February at +7.1% on average, its weakest March at -3.9%. Seasonality is a weak signal on its own — a decade is a small sample and regimes change — but it is a real distribution rather than a rule of thumb.

Overnight risk is measurable too: HWM has opened more than 2% away from the prior close in 237 of 3,267 sessions (7.3% of the time), with the largest gaps running +10.0% and -8.2%. For anyone holding through an event, that rate is a better guide to overnight exposure than the intraday range.

Across the last 3 dated reports on file, HWM moved an average of 1.5% in the session after earnings, closing higher 2 of those 3 times, with a median move of +0.1% and a largest of -3.2%.

All figures computed from 3,268 daily closes between 2013-09-16 and 2026-09-15, split-adjusted, recomputed daily. Percentiles are against HWM's own 13-year history, not a peer group or index.