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MEDP·Medpace Holdings, Inc.

$612.19
-2.99 (-0.49%)
Market Closed (Overnight)$612.33+0.14 (+0.02%)
High
$619.41
Open
$616.94
Market Cap
17.09B
52W High
$677.90
Low
$608.54
P. Close
$612.19
P/E
34.77
52W Low
$373.00
Fwd P/E
31.71
DailyIQ Est.
$582.71
Inst. Ownership
4.8%
Short Interest
5.99%
Days to Cover
8.2
Technical Score (1D)
82
BUY
News Sentiment
72
BULLISH
Medpace’s latest earnings outlook shows a Q4 EPS forecast of $4.45, up 15.3 % YoY, and a revenue target of $708.8 million, a 7.4 % increase, which signals continued contract‑research momentum and should support near‑term upside. The company’s Q2 results already beat expectations and lifted its full‑year guidance, making the upcoming earnings release a key catalyst that could confirm or revise the current valuation premium. A routine insider sale by CEO August J. Troendle of $403,000 in shares on August 31, while not materially dilutive, may temper short‑term sentiment and warrants monitoring for any accompanying commentary on confidence. Analysts have issued a Hold rating, reflecting cautious optimism amid market volatility, so any shift in analyst sentiment could quickly alter the stock’s trajectory. The combination of a strong earnings beat, upward guidance, and a modest insider divestiture creates a near‑term trading window that traders should watch for confirmation of the company’s growth trajectory. Keep an eye on the earnings release for guidance revisions and on any subsequent insider activity that might signal management’s outlook. Additionally, monitor the company’s backlog conversion and new contract wins, as these will underpin the sustainability of the revenue lift. Finally, watch for any changes in the analyst consensus or Zacks Rank, as a shift could materially affect the stock’s valuation range.
Earnings Summary
Medpace Holdings, Inc. is a clinical research organization providing end‑to‑end drug and medical device development services across North America, Europe, and Asia, operating within the diagnostics and research industry. In Q4 2024 Medpace reported EPS of $3.6813 versus an estimate of $3.11667 and revenue of $536.589 million, while Q4 2025 EPS rose to $4.67 against an estimate of $4.2264 and revenue climbed to $708.45 million, indicating a consistent upward trend in both earnings and top line over the two most recent quarters. Historically, Medpace has shown a YoY revenue growth trajectory, with Q2 2026 revenue of $707.33 million versus an estimate of $701.40 million, and EPS of $4.25 beating the $4.0502 estimate, reflecting a pattern of earnings beats even as revenue growth moderates. Recent insider activity, including multiple sales by CEO August J. Troendle and CFO Kevin M. Brady, signals short‑term confidence concerns; these transactions may influence investor sentiment and liquidity in the coming weeks. Investors should watch for any forthcoming earnings guidance or strategic updates that address the company’s growth trajectory, as well as any changes in insider trading patterns, which could signal shifts in management outlook. Monitoring updates on Medpace’s pipeline, partnership announcements, and regulatory developments will also be key to assessing whether the firm can sustain its earnings momentum and maintain its valuation premium in a competitive CRO landscape.

EPS

EstBeatMiss
$2.88$3.39$3.89$4.40$4.90Q4'24Q4'25Q2'26Q3'26
QtrEstActual+/−
Q3'26$4.44 - -
Q2'26$4.05$4.25+4.9%
Q4'25$4.23$4.67+10.5%
Q4'24$3.12$3.68+18.1%

Revenue

EstBeatMiss
$508M$570M$633M$695M$757MQ4'24Q4'25Q2'26Q3'26
QtrEstActual+/−
Q3'26$729M - -
Q2'26$701M$707M+0.8%
Q4'25$691M$708M+2.5%
Q4'24 - $537M -

Market Data

MEDP Stock Snapshot

BUY82/100
$612.33+$0.14 (0.0%)
Market cap
17.09B
P/E ratio
34.8
Day range
$608.54 – $619.41
News sentiment
72/100 · Bullish
Analyst target
$581.83 (-5.0%)
Consensus
Hold · 21 analysts
52-week range+64.2% off low · -9.7% from high
$373.00$677.90
Price $612.33 DailyIQ Est. $582.71

Price is in the upper part of its 52-week range, and the momentum read backs that positioning up. Sector peers are worth watching - large caps in Healthcare tend to move together on rotation.

Behaviour On Record

What MEDP's own history says about today's numbers

Realized volatility (21d)
19.2% 1st pct
Below its peak
-5.5%
vs 200-day average
+17.6%
Up days (1y)
51%

Medpace Holdings, Inc. is currently running 19.2% annualised volatility over the last 21 sessions. Measured against MEDP's own 10 years of daily returns rather than a market-wide average, that is the 1st percentile unusually subdued by its own history, against a typical reading of 35.8%. The distinction matters because a number that looks calm for one stock is turbulent for another, and the absolute figure on its own tells you neither.

MEDP is trading -5.5% below its running peak. Across 9 full years on file, its median worst-drawdown-in-a-year was -28.6%, and the deepest was -40.8% in 2020. The current pullback is therefore shallower than what this stock gives back in a typical year, which is context worth having before treating it as a dislocation.

Price sits +17.6% from its 200-day moving average. Against every other day in its history, that gap ranks at the 56th percentile a somewhat wider gap than its own norm. Over the past year MEDP closed higher on 51% of sessions, and it is currently 3 sessions into a falling streak.

On September specifically: over 11 years of records, MEDP finished the month higher 6 of 11 times, with a median return of +0.9% and an average of -0.6%. Its strongest month historically has been July at +13.7% on average, its weakest February at -4.8%. Seasonality is a weak signal on its own — a decade is a small sample and regimes change — but it is a real distribution rather than a rule of thumb.

Overnight risk is measurable too: MEDP has opened more than 2% away from the prior close in 131 of 2,539 sessions (5.2% of the time), with the largest gaps running +24.0% and -15.8%. For anyone holding through an event, that rate is a better guide to overnight exposure than the intraday range.

All figures computed from 2,540 daily closes between 2016-08-11 and 2026-09-18, split-adjusted, recomputed daily. Percentiles are against MEDP's own 10-year history, not a peer group or index.

Sector Rotation

Is money rotating into or out of MEDP's sector?

Medpace Holdings, Inc. sits in the Industrials sector, currently ranked 11th of 11 GICS sectors by relative-strength rotation score (improving).

Sector rank
#11 of 11
Sector state
Improving
Sector rotation score
30

Options Market

What is the options market pricing for MEDP?

CallsPuts

For Medpace Holdings, Inc.'s nearest expiry (2026-10-16, 26 days out), open interest is call-heavy, a bullish tilt (put/call ratio of 0.43), with at-the-money implied volatility around 55.4%. The options market is pricing roughly a ±12.1% move by that expiry — a range of about $642.94–$820.27.

Put/call ratio (2026-10-16)
0.43
ATM implied volatility
55.4%
Total open interest
97
Expected move by 2026-10-16
±12.1% ($642.94–$820.27)

Analyst Rating Changes

Are analysts turning bullish or bearish on MEDP?

Mizuho most recently reiterated its rating on Medpace Holdings, Inc. to Outperform on Jul 24, 2026 with a price target of $665 (from $586). Over the last 90 days, coverage has run 0 upgrades against 2 downgrades, a net bearish lean.

Latest action
MizuhoOutperform
90-day upgrades
0
90-day downgrades
2
Net rating momentum
-2
DateFirmActionRatingPrice target
Jul 24, 2026MizuhoMaintainedOutperform$586 → $665
Jul 24, 2026BMO CapitalMaintainedMarket Perform$400 → $600
Jul 24, 2026Truist SecuritiesMaintainedHold$462 → $609
Jul 24, 2026TD CowenMaintainedHold$419 → $492
Jul 24, 2026RBC CapitalMaintainedOutperform$484 → $692
Jul 24, 2026BairdMaintainedNeutral$547 → $624
Jul 13, 2026MizuhoMaintainedOutperform$495 → $586
Jul 8, 2026BairdDowngradeOutperform → Neutral$477 → $547
Jul 7, 2026JefferiesDowngradeBuy → Hold$490 → $515
Apr 24, 2026BarclaysMaintainedEqual-Weight$500 → $450
Apr 24, 2026BMO CapitalMaintainedMarket Perform$460 → $400
Apr 24, 2026RBC CapitalMaintainedOutperform$522 → $484

MEDP Competitive Positioning

Medpace Holdings, Inc. (MEDP) is tracked alongside these names in Diagnostics & Research on DailyIQ — ranked by market cap, with today's move alongside.