MTCH·Match Group, Inc.

Realized volatility (21d)

24.6% 23rd pct

Below its peak

-86.9%

vs 200-day average

+19.1%

Up days (1y)

53%

Match Group, Inc. is currently running 24.6% annualised volatility over the last 21 sessions. Measured against MTCH's own 13 years of daily returns rather than a market-wide average, that is the 23rd percentile — unusually subdued by its own history, against a typical reading of 32.1%. The distinction matters because a number that looks calm for one stock is turbulent for another, and the absolute figure on its own tells you neither.

MTCH is trading -86.9% below its running peak. Across 12 full years on file, its median worst-drawdown-in-a-year was -28.4%, and the deepest was -70.6% in 2022. The current drawdown is already deeper than this stock's typical annual low point, which puts it in the part of its range where past recoveries began — and where past declines also continued.

Price sits +19.1% from its 200-day moving average. Against every other day in its history, that gap ranks at the 86th percentile — a wider gap than this stock usually carries. Over the past year MTCH closed higher on 53% of sessions, and it is currently 3 sessions into a rising streak.

On October specifically: over 14 years of records, MTCH finished the month higher 7 of 14 times, with a median return of -0.8% and an average of -1.6%. Its strongest month historically has been May at +4.8% on average, its weakest March at -2.8%. Seasonality is a weak signal on its own — a decade is a small sample and regimes change — but it is a real distribution rather than a rule of thumb.

Overnight risk is measurable too: MTCH has opened more than 2% away from the prior close in 188 of 3,243 sessions (5.8% of the time), with the largest gaps running +6.9% and -12.0%. For anyone holding through an event, that rate is a better guide to overnight exposure than the intraday range.

Across the last 3 dated reports on file, MTCH moved an average of 2.3% in the session after earnings, closing higher 1 of those 3 times, with a median move of -1.0% and a largest of +4.5%.

All figures computed from 3,245 daily closes between 2013-10-15 and 2026-10-14, split-adjusted, recomputed daily. Percentiles are against MTCH's own 13-year history, not a peer group or index.