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Last updated1 minute ago

FWONA·Liberty Media Corporation - Series A Liberty Formula One

$86.95
-0.59 (-0.67%)
High
$87.53
Open
$87.53
Market Cap
23.88B
52W High
$99.52
Low
$86.39
P. Close
$86.95
P/E
40.47
52W Low
$72.50
Fwd P/E
36.20
DailyIQ Est.
$113.92
Inst. Ownership
1.1%
Short Interest
0.41%
Days to Cover
11.1
Technical Score (1D)
32
SELL
News Sentiment
81
BULLISH
Liberty Media’s Formula One Group reported Q2 sales of $934 million, a 0.87 % miss on consensus and a 30 % decline from the prior quarter, signaling a temporary slowdown in revenue growth that could dampen short‑term earnings momentum. The company’s unchanged full‑year guidance suggests management remains confident that the decline is transitory and that long‑term growth from media, sponsorship and race promotion contracts will persist. In light of the earnings dip, Guggenheim’s recent upgrade to a Buy rating and lift of the price target to $124 reflects optimism that the firm’s strategic initiatives—particularly its digital fan‑engagement push and premium broadcasting deals—will generate upside once the revenue dip normalizes. The upgrade also signals that analysts believe the current share price still offers room for upside, despite the recent sales miss. Meanwhile, a DCF analysis now places the firm’s value near the current market price, while traditional multiples flag the stock as expensive, raising concerns that margin pressure or higher capital needs for the series could erode future cash flows. The company’s 113.5 % five‑year return has been driven largely by media, sponsorship and race promotion contracts, but any tightening of those margins could compress earnings. Liberty’s strategy to grow MotoGP viewership and revenue through digital and broadcast initiatives, coupled with its 12 % CAGR in F1 since 2018, provides a solid growth foundation that could offset short‑term revenue volatility. Traders should watch the next earnings release for updates on cost‑management initiatives and any regulatory developments that could affect the company’s valuation, as well as the trajectory of digital engagement metrics that underpin the firm’s growth strategy.
Earnings Summary
Liberty Media Corporation’s Formula One Group (FWONA) operates within the global motorsports arena, owning commercial rights to the FIA Formula One World Championship and generating revenue through ticketing, hospitality, licensing, television production, and ancillary series such as Formula 2, Formula 3, and F1 Academy. The company’s business model blends high‑profile sporting events with media and entertainment services, positioning it within the broader communication services sector. In Q4 2024, FWONA reported a negative EPS of –$0.45932 against an estimate of $0.36208, while revenue reached $1.167 billion, a figure that is not comparable to prior estimates due to missing data. The next quarter’s earnings data (Q1 2025) are incomplete, with no EPS or revenue figures available, preventing a direct comparison of growth trends. Historically, the company has shown a mix of revenue growth and earnings volatility, with the Q4 2024 loss indicating a potential earnings slowdown despite a solid revenue base. The recent news rollups highlight a Q2 sales miss of $934 million, a 0.87% shortfall from consensus and a 30.35% decline from the prior quarter, suggesting short‑term revenue pressure. Analysts have upgraded the stock to a Buy and raised the price target to $124, reflecting confidence in long‑term media and entertainment initiatives, yet the downgrade in sales signals caution. Investors should watch the upcoming earnings release for any adjustments to cost‑management plans or revenue‑growth targets, as well as for updates on capital expenditure and regulatory developments that could impact media rights and margin dynamics. These factors will be key to determining whether the company can reverse the quarterly decline and sustain its growth narrative in the near term.

EPS

EstBeatMiss
$-0.60$-0.29$0.03$0.34$0.66Q4'24Q1'25
QtrEstActual+/−
Q1'25$0.51 - -
Q4'24$0.36$-0.46-226.9%

Revenue

EstBeatMiss
$1.2B$1.2B$1.2B$1.3B$1.3BQ4'24Q1'25
QtrEstActual+/−
Q1'25$1.3B - -
Q4'24 - $1.2B -
Full Earnings BreakdownEstimates, actuals, guidance, and historical context
→

Market Data

FWONA Stock Snapshot

SELL32/100
$86.95−$0.59 (0.7%)
Market cap
23.88B
P/E ratio
40.5
Day range
$86.39 – $87.53
News sentiment
81/100 · Bullish
Analyst target
$111.00 (+27.7%)
Consensus
Buy · 20 analysts
52-week range+19.9% off low · -12.6% from high
$72.50$99.52
Price $86.95 DailyIQ Est. $113.92

FWONA is on the weaker side of its setup, with little confirmation for a reversal yet. Earnings and guidance carry more weight than macro data at this capitalisation.

Reverse DCF

What growth is priced into FWONA?

FAIR

At today's price, Liberty Media Corporation - Series A Liberty Formula One needs to grow free cash flow about 15.6% a year for the next 10 years to justify its valuation at a 7.54% cost of capital. Over its actual history it has compounded free cash flow at 14.4% a year, so the market is asking for 1.2 percentage points above its own delivered rate. On that basis FWONA looks priced roughly in line with its own growth record.

Implied FCF growth
15.6%
Historical FCF CAGR
14.4%
Growth gap
+1.2 pts
Verdict
FAIR
Discount rate (WACC)
7.54%
Beta
0.67

Behaviour On Record

What FWONA's own history says about today's numbers

Realized volatility (21d)
21.7% 27th pct
Below its peak
-12.5%
vs 200-day average
+2.9%
Up days (1y)
49%

Liberty Media Corporation - Series A Liberty Formula One is currently running 21.7% annualised volatility over the last 21 sessions. Measured against FWONA's own 10 years of daily returns rather than a market-wide average, that is the 27th percentile — on the quiet side for this stock, against a typical reading of 25.8%. The distinction matters because a number that looks calm for one stock is turbulent for another, and the absolute figure on its own tells you neither.

FWONA is trading -12.5% below its running peak. Across 9 full years on file, its median worst-drawdown-in-a-year was -21.6%, and the deepest was -60.8% in 2020. The current pullback is therefore shallower than what this stock gives back in a typical year, which is context worth having before treating it as a dislocation.

Price sits +2.9% from its 200-day moving average. Against every other day in its history, that gap ranks at the 40th percentile — close to the gap it normally carries. Over the past year FWONA closed higher on 49% of sessions, and it is currently 1 session into a falling streak.

On September specifically: over 10 years of records, FWONA finished the month higher 4 of 10 times, with a median return of -1.8% and an average of -2.0%. Its strongest month historically has been April at +4.6% on average, its weakest March at -2.6%. Seasonality is a weak signal on its own — a decade is a small sample and regimes change — but it is a real distribution rather than a rule of thumb.

Overnight risk is measurable too: FWONA has opened more than 2% away from the prior close in 104 of 2,421 sessions (4.3% of the time), with the largest gaps running +24.7% and -24.4%. For anyone holding through an event, that rate is a better guide to overnight exposure than the intraday range.

All figures computed from 2,422 daily closes between 2017-01-25 and 2026-09-15, split-adjusted, recomputed daily. Percentiles are against FWONA's own 10-year history, not a peer group or index.

Sector Rotation

Is money rotating into or out of FWONA's sector?

Liberty Media Corporation - Series A Liberty Formula One sits in the Technology sector, currently ranked 6th of 11 GICS sectors by relative-strength rotation score (lagging). Within its narrower Software industry group, FWONA ranks 2nd of 15 tracked industries, leading.

Sector rank
#6 of 11
Sector state
Lagging
Sector rotation score
50
Industry rank
#2 of 15

Options Market

What is the options market pricing for FWONA?

CallsPuts

For Liberty Media Corporation - Series A Liberty Formula One's nearest expiry (2026-09-18, 3 days out), open interest is call-heavy, a bullish tilt (put/call ratio of 0.06), with at-the-money implied volatility around 170.9%. The options market is pricing roughly a ±15.5% move by that expiry — a range of about $73.35–$100.25.

Put/call ratio (2026-09-18)
0.06
ATM implied volatility
170.9%
Total open interest
19
Expected move by 2026-09-18
±15.5% ($73.35–$100.25)

Analyst Rating Changes

Are analysts turning bullish or bearish on FWONA?

Guggenheim most recently reiterated its rating on Liberty Media Corporation - Series A Liberty Formula One to Buy on Aug 17, 2026 with a price target of $124 (from $116). Over the last 90 days, coverage has run 0 upgrades against 0 downgrades, a net mixed lean.

Latest action
Guggenheim — Buy
90-day upgrades
0
90-day downgrades
0
Net rating momentum
0
DateFirmActionRatingPrice target
Aug 17, 2026GuggenheimMaintainedBuy$116 → $124
Jul 2, 2026CitizensReiteratedMarket Outperform$100 → $120
May 11, 2026CitigroupMaintainedBuy$95 → $100
Mar 30, 2026CitizensInitiatedMarket Outperform$100
Mar 25, 2026CitigroupMaintainedBuy$100 → $95
Jul 22, 2025GuggenheimMaintainedBuy$95 → $110
Jun 12, 2025BenchmarkReiteratedBuy$102
Feb 24, 2025Wells FargoInitiatedUnderweight$83
Nov 14, 2024BenchmarkReiteratedBuy$81
Aug 9, 2024BenchmarkMaintainedBuy$77 → $81
May 22, 2024BenchmarkReiteratedBuy$77
Apr 2, 2024Deutsche BankMaintainedHold$73

FWONA Competitive Positioning

Liberty Media Corporation - Series A Liberty Formula One (FWONA) is tracked alongside these names in Entertainment on DailyIQ — ranked by market cap, with today's move alongside.