DailyIQ
Last updated 2 minutes ago

COF·Capital One Financial Corporation

$.
-. (-.%)
Pre-Market
High
$207.25
Open
$206.99
Market Cap
128.12B
52W High
$259.64
Low
$206.84
P. Close
$207.29
P/E
39.75
52W Low
$174.24
Fwd P/E
8.54
DailyIQ Est.
$265.46
Technical Score (1D)
73
BUY
News Sentiment
74
BULLISH
Capital One’s latest earnings outlook remains a hold, underscoring that the bank sees only modest valuation upside while flagging continued margin compression as a key risk. The credit profile is improving, largely because the Discover integration is delivering higher‑quality loan balances and lower default rates. However, the firm’s caution about net‑interest‑margin pressure suggests that earnings growth may be capped in the near term. For the next 1–10 trading days, this balance of improving credit and tightening margins will likely keep the stock’s price range tight, as investors weigh the potential upside of a stronger loan book against the downside of a shrinking margin. Traders should watch the bank’s daily net‑interest‑margin figures for any signs of early improvement or further decline. Additionally, any updates on the Discover integration milestones—such as the completion of key technology or customer‑acquisition targets—could shift sentiment toward a more bullish stance. If margin trends remain flat or worsen, the hold rating may be reinforced or even downgraded, tightening the valuation range. Conversely, a surprise margin rebound or a faster-than‑expected integration pace could lift the outlook to a buy. Keep an eye on the next earnings release for guidance on projected NIM and any new initiatives aimed at offsetting margin pressure.
Earnings Summary
Capital One Financial Corporation, a diversified financial services holding company, operates through Credit Card, Consumer Banking, and Commercial Banking segments, offering deposit accounts, loans, and digital banking solutions across the United States, Canada, and the United Kingdom; it competes in the broader credit services sector. In the most recent two quarters, Q4 2025 and Q1 2026, the company reported EPS of $3.86 and $4.42 respectively, a decline from the $5.95 and $5.48 EPS seen in Q3 and Q2 2025, while revenue slipped from $15.36 B in Q3 2025 to $15.58 B in Q4 2025 and then to $15.23 B in Q1 2026, reflecting a modest revenue contraction after a strong Q3 surge; the company beat earnings estimates in four of the last six quarters but missed in the most recent two, indicating a recent shift in earnings momentum. Historically, Capital One has posted robust year‑on‑year growth, with Q4 2025 revenue up 53% and EPS up 25% versus Q4 2024, and Q1 2026 revenue up 52% and EPS up 9% versus Q1 2025, underscoring a consistent ability to grow top line even as earnings quality has fluctuated; the pattern of strong revenue growth paired with occasional EPS misses suggests margin pressure is a recurring theme. Recent news highlights margin compression as a key risk, with the Discover integration improving loan quality but not yet offsetting tightening net‑interest margins; the upcoming Q2 2026 earnings release is expected to reveal whether the 52.3% YoY revenue increase translates into improved profitability, while a pending $35 million settlement for a 2019 data breach could introduce legal cost pressure; investors should also monitor progress on Discover integration milestones and any updates on cost‑control initiatives. Forward‑looking watch points include monitoring net‑interest margin trends for early signs of improvement or further decline, assessing the pace of Discover integration and its impact on loan quality, and watching for any guidance on cost‑to‑income ratio adjustments that could influence future earnings resilience.}}

EPS

EstBeatMiss
$3.31$4.05$4.80$5.55$6.29Q1'25Q2'25Q3'25Q4'25Q1'26Q2'26
QtrEstActual+/−
Q2'26$4.72 - -
Q1'26$4.57$4.42-3.3%
Q4'25$4.15$3.86-6.9%
Q3'25$4.36$5.95+36.4%
Q2'25$3.70$5.48+48.0%
Q1'25$3.65$4.06+11.2%

Revenue

EstBeatMiss
$9.1B$11.0B$13.0B$14.9B$16.8BQ1'25Q2'25Q3'25Q4'25Q1'26Q2'26
QtrEstActual+/−
Q2'26$15.9B - -
Q1'26$15.4B$15.2B-0.9%
Q4'25$15.6B$15.6B-0.3%
Q3'25 - $15.4B -
Q2'25 - $12.5B -
Q1'25 - $10.0B -

Market Data

COF Stock Snapshot

COF is currently trading at $206.84, giving Capital One Financial Corporation a market cap of 128.12B and a P/E ratio of 39.8. Today's range spans $206.84–$207.25, with shares opening at $206.99 and moving down $0.45 (0.2%) from the prior close. DailyIQ's technical score sits at 73/100 (BUY) with a news sentiment reading of 74/100.

Over the past year COF has traded between $174.24 and $259.64 - the current price is +18.7% off the 52-week low and -20.3% from the high. 31 analysts cover the stock with a Buy consensus and a mean 12-month target of $256.09 (range $214.00–$310.00), implying upside of +23.8%.

COF is showing the kind of bullish setup that active managers add to on dips - 73/100 (BUY), bullish sentiment at 74/100, 128.12B market cap in Financial Services, price $206.84 (in the lower half of its 52-week range). The current P/E ratio stands at 39.8. At this cap tier, the combination of technical confirmation and positive sentiment is what separates speculative bullish positions from high-conviction ones. Annual range: $174.24–$259.64. The setup is in the latter category.

Earnings revision cycles in large-cap Financial Services names tend to compound: when technicals confirm a BUY thesis (73/100) and news sentiment (74/100, bullish) supports the narrative, analyst upgrades follow price rather than lead it. At $206.84 (in the lower half of its 52-week range), COF's position within the $174.24–$259.64 annual range suggests there's room for multiple expansion before the stock encounters meaningful technical resistance.