SMCI·Super Micro Computer, Inc.

Realized volatility (21d)

63.2% 63rd pct

Below its peak

-70.0%

vs 200-day average

+10.1%

Up days (1y)

45%

Super Micro Computer, Inc. is currently running 63.2% annualised volatility over the last 21 sessions. Measured against SMCI's own 13 years of daily returns rather than a market-wide average, that is the 63rd percentile — a little above its own norm, against a typical reading of 51.6%. The distinction matters because a number that looks calm for one stock is turbulent for another, and the absolute figure on its own tells you neither.

SMCI is trading -70.0% below its running peak. Across 12 full years on file, its median worst-drawdown-in-a-year was -42.0%, and the deepest was -85.1% in 2024. The current drawdown is already deeper than this stock's typical annual low point, which puts it in the part of its range where past recoveries began — and where past declines also continued.

Price sits +10.1% from its 200-day moving average. Against every other day in its history, that gap ranks at the 55th percentile — a somewhat wider gap than its own norm. Over the past year SMCI closed higher on 45% of sessions, and it is currently 5 sessions into a falling streak.

On October specifically: over 14 years of records, SMCI finished the month higher 5 of 14 times, with a median return of -3.5% and an average of -6.3%. Its strongest month historically has been May at +20.9% on average, its weakest October at -6.3%. Seasonality is a weak signal on its own — a decade is a small sample and regimes change — but it is a real distribution rather than a rule of thumb.

Overnight risk is measurable too: SMCI has opened more than 2% away from the prior close in 268 of 3,268 sessions (8.2% of the time), with the largest gaps running +10.3% and -24.1%. For anyone holding through an event, that rate is a better guide to overnight exposure than the intraday range.

Across the last 4 dated reports on file, SMCI moved an average of 5.1% in the session after earnings, closing higher 3 of those 4 times, with a median move of +4.7% and a largest of +9.8%.

All figures computed from 3,269 daily closes between 2013-10-15 and 2026-10-14, split-adjusted, recomputed daily. Percentiles are against SMCI's own 13-year history, not a peer group or index.