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Last updated2 minutes ago

TSM·Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing

$434.54
+4.28 (+0.99%)
Market Closed (Overnight)$433.34-1.20 (-0.28%)
High
$434.82
Open
$430.03
Market Cap
2.25T
52W High
$479.00
Low
$427.13
P. Close
$434.54
P/E
27.75
52W Low
$264.97
Fwd P/E
19.83
DailyIQ Est.
$584.17
Inst. Ownership
7.2%
Short Interest
0.57%
Days to Cover
3.1
Technical Score (1D)
73
BUY
News Sentiment
72
BULLISH
The most immediate catalyst is MediaTek’s announcement that its Dimensity 9600 Pro will ship with TSMC’s 2‑nanometer process, the first mainstream smartphone to use the node. This move turns a laboratory demonstration into a tangible revenue stream and confirms TSMC’s ramp‑up plans, giving investors a concrete upside for the next 1–10 trading days. The 2‑nm deployment also signals stronger demand for advanced nodes, reinforcing TSMC’s long‑term growth narrative, though the current revenue mix still shows only about 3 % from 2‑nm products, indicating a gradual transition. Meanwhile, the share price has slipped nearly 7 % over the past 90 days, suggesting that the market is pricing in near‑term valuation concerns and potential supply constraints even as it remains optimistic about long‑term upside. In parallel, a comparison with GlobalFoundries shows that GFA is achieving higher percentage growth in a niche AI silicon segment, which could erode TSMC’s dominance in that space. This raises a risk that TSMC’s market share in AI chips may be challenged, prompting investors to monitor GFA’s performance relative to TSMC’s earnings guidance. The combination of a new commercial 2‑nm deployment and competitive pressure from GFA creates a nuanced outlook: TSMC’s advanced node leadership remains intact, but its near‑term valuation and AI market share could be under scrutiny. Watch for next‑week earnings guidance to see how TSMC balances the 2‑nm revenue path against potential supply constraints and AI chip competition.
Earnings Summary
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) is a global leader in semiconductor fabrication, specializing in advanced wafer processes that power high‑performance computing, smartphones, and automotive electronics. Operating in the highly competitive technology sector, TSMC’s core business centers on providing cutting‑edge CMOS logic and mixed‑signal chips to a diverse customer base. In Q4 2024, TSMC reported EPS of $2.24 versus an estimate of $2.22 and revenue of $868.5 billion, slightly above expectations. The following quarter, Q1 2025, saw EPS rise to $2.12 from an estimate of $2.05 and revenue decline to $839.3 billion, indicating a modest revenue slowdown but continued earnings growth. Q2 2025 reversed the trend with EPS of $2.47 beating the $2.31 estimate and revenue climbing to $933.8 billion, while Q3 2025 delivered EPS of $2.92 against a $2.63 estimate and revenue of $989.9 billion, showing a clear acceleration in both earnings and top line. Q4 2025 continued the upward trajectory with EPS of $3.14 versus $2.98 and revenue of $1.046 trillion, marking the strongest quarterly performance in the series. Historically, TSMC has maintained a YoY revenue growth rate that has accelerated from the mid‑$800 billion range to over $1 trillion, with EPS consistently beating analyst estimates in each of the last four quarters, underscoring robust profitability and pricing power. Recent news highlights a 45 % jump in May sales driven by AI‑chip demand, a record margin improvement, and a $265 billion investment in Arizona that expands U.S. capacity and strengthens the company’s position in the AI market; these developments reinforce the narrative of sustained demand and operational efficiency. Investors should watch for the next earnings release to confirm whether AI demand and margin gains persist, monitor any updates on the Arizona plant’s construction milestones, and keep an eye on potential supply‑chain constraints that could impact production capacity.

EPS

EstBeatMiss
$1.72$2.44$3.16$3.87$4.59Q4'24Q1'25Q2'25Q3'25Q4'25Q2'26
QtrEstActual+/−
Q2'26$4.26 - -
Q4'25$2.98$3.14+5.5%
Q3'25$2.63$2.92+11.2%
Q2'25$2.31$2.47+6.8%
Q1'25$2.05$2.12+3.2%
Q4'24$2.22$2.24+0.7%

Revenue

EstBeatMiss
$756.5B$935.8B$1.1T$1.3T$1.5TQ4'24Q1'25Q2'25Q3'25Q4'25Q2'26
QtrEstActual+/−
Q2'26$1.4T - -
Q4'25 - $1.0T -
Q3'25 - $989.9B -
Q2'25 - $933.8B -
Q1'25 - $839.3B -
Q4'24 - $868.5B -
Full Earnings BreakdownEstimates, actuals, guidance, and historical context
→

Market Data

TSM Stock Snapshot

BUY73/100
$433.34−$1.20 (0.3%)
Market cap
2.25T
P/E ratio
27.8
Day range
$427.13 – $434.82
News sentiment
72/100 · Bullish
Analyst target
$552.26 (+27.4%)
Consensus
Buy · 45 analysts
52-week range+63.5% off low · -9.5% from high
$264.97$479.00
Price $433.34 DailyIQ Est. $584.17

Momentum is working in TSM's favour - the indicator set leans bullish rather than mixed. Positioning shifts among large allocators, not retail flow, set the tone for a name this size.

Behaviour On Record

What TSM's own history says about today's numbers

Realized volatility (21d)
26.0% 42nd pct
Below its peak
-8.7%
vs 200-day average
+14.5%
Up days (1y)
53%

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing is currently running 26.0% annualised volatility over the last 21 sessions. Measured against TSM's own 13 years of daily returns rather than a market-wide average, that is the 42nd percentile — close to its own typical level, against a typical reading of 27.9%. The distinction matters because a number that looks calm for one stock is turbulent for another, and the absolute figure on its own tells you neither.

TSM is trading -8.7% below its running peak. Across 12 full years on file, its median worst-drawdown-in-a-year was -22.4%, and the deepest was -57.5% in 2022. The current pullback is therefore shallower than what this stock gives back in a typical year, which is context worth having before treating it as a dislocation.

Price sits +14.5% from its 200-day moving average. Against every other day in its history, that gap ranks at the 64th percentile — a somewhat wider gap than its own norm. Over the past year TSM closed higher on 53% of sessions, and it is currently 3 sessions into a rising streak.

On September specifically: over 13 years of records, TSM finished the month higher 8 of 13 times, with a median return of +1.1% and an average of +2.0%. Its strongest month historically has been January at +4.6% on average, its weakest March at -0.9%. Seasonality is a weak signal on its own — a decade is a small sample and regimes change — but it is a real distribution rather than a rule of thumb.

Overnight risk is measurable too: TSM has opened more than 2% away from the prior close in 182 of 3,268 sessions (5.6% of the time), with the largest gaps running +4.6% and -9.1%. For anyone holding through an event, that rate is a better guide to overnight exposure than the intraday range.

All figures computed from 3,269 daily closes between 2013-09-20 and 2026-09-18, split-adjusted, recomputed daily. Percentiles are against TSM's own 13-year history, not a peer group or index.

Sector Rotation

Is money rotating into or out of TSM's sector?

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing sits in the Technology sector, currently ranked 1st of 11 GICS sectors by relative-strength rotation score (leading). Within its narrower Semiconductors industry group, TSM ranks 2nd of 15 tracked industries, leading.

Sector rank
#1 of 11
Sector state
Leading
Sector rotation score
90
Industry rank
#2 of 15

Options Market

What is the options market pricing for TSM?

CallsPuts

For Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing's nearest expiry (2026-09-25, 5 days out), open interest is roughly balanced between puts and calls (put/call ratio of 0.96), with at-the-money implied volatility around 32.8%. The options market is pricing roughly a ±3.7% move by that expiry — a range of about $417.22–$449.46.

Put/call ratio (2026-09-25)
0.96
ATM implied volatility
32.8%
Total open interest
47,757
Expected move by 2026-09-25
±3.7% ($417.22–$449.46)

Analyst Rating Changes

Are analysts turning bullish or bearish on TSM?

Stifel most recently initiated coverage on Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing to Buy on Sep 2, 2026 with a price target of $515. Over the last 90 days, coverage has run 0 upgrades against 0 downgrades, a net mixed lean.

Latest action
Stifel — Buy
90-day upgrades
0
90-day downgrades
0
Net rating momentum
0
DateFirmActionRatingPrice target
Sep 2, 2026StifelInitiatedBuy$515
Aug 11, 2026BernsteinMaintainedOutperform$430 → $554
Jul 27, 2026NeedhamMaintainedBuy$480 → $530
Jul 17, 2026DA DavidsonMaintainedBuy$450 → $500
Jul 17, 2026TD CowenMaintainedHold$400 → $440
Jul 17, 2026BarclaysMaintainedOverweight$625 → $650
Jul 16, 2026SusquehannaMaintainedPositive$575 → $600
Jun 24, 2026B of A SecuritiesMaintainedBuy$490 → $590
Jun 22, 2026SusquehannaMaintainedPositive$500 → $575
Apr 22, 2026BarclaysMaintainedOverweight$450 → $470
Apr 17, 2026DA DavidsonMaintainedBuy$450
Apr 16, 2026NeedhamMaintainedBuy$410 → $480

TSM Competitive Positioning

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) is tracked alongside these names in Semiconductors on DailyIQ — ranked by market cap, with today's move alongside.

Held by These ETFs

TSM is a top holding in these ETFs tracked on DailyIQ — bar length shows portfolio weight.