TSM·Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing

Realized volatility (21d)

22.5% 27th pct

Below its peak

-0.2%

vs 200-day average

+23.9%

Up days (1y)

54%

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing is currently running 22.5% annualised volatility over the last 21 sessions. Measured against TSM's own 13 years of daily returns rather than a market-wide average, that is the 27th percentile — on the quiet side for this stock, against a typical reading of 27.8%. The distinction matters because a number that looks calm for one stock is turbulent for another, and the absolute figure on its own tells you neither.

TSM is at its running peak. Across 12 full years on file its median worst-drawdown-in-a-year was -22.4%, with the deepest at -57.5% in 2022 — so highs have historically been given back before they were extended.

Price sits +23.9% from its 200-day moving average. Against every other day in its history, that gap ranks at the 81st percentile — a wider gap than this stock usually carries. Over the past year TSM closed higher on 54% of sessions, and it is currently 1 session into a falling streak.

On October specifically: over 13 years of records, TSM finished the month higher 10 of 13 times, with a median return of +3.7% and an average of +2.5%. Its strongest month historically has been January at +4.6% on average, its weakest March at -0.9%. Seasonality is a weak signal on its own — a decade is a small sample and regimes change — but it is a real distribution rather than a rule of thumb.

Overnight risk is measurable too: TSM has opened more than 2% away from the prior close in 182 of 3,271 sessions (5.6% of the time), with the largest gaps running +4.6% and -9.1%. For anyone holding through an event, that rate is a better guide to overnight exposure than the intraday range.

All figures computed from 3,272 daily closes between 2013-10-07 and 2026-10-06, split-adjusted, recomputed daily. Percentiles are against TSM's own 13-year history, not a peer group or index.