DailyIQ
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Last updated2 minutes ago

TD·Toronto Dominion Bank (The)

$113.87
-4.31 (-3.65%)
Overnight$113.90+0.03 (+0.03%)
High
$117.72
Open
$116.73
Market Cap
186.60B
52W High
$125.51
Low
$113.67
P. Close
$113.87
P/E
17.45
52W Low
$77.58
Fwd P/E
14.56
DailyIQ Est.
$122.30
Inst. Ownership
-
Short Interest
0.52%
Days to Cover
4.6
Technical Score (1D)
32
BEARISH
News Sentiment
71
BULLISH
On Oct 7, Toronto‑Dominion Bank announced that its board had approved a large‑scale share repurchase program, pending regulatory sign‑off. The plan is described as a core element of the bank’s capital management strategy, intended to return capital to shareholders while preserving flexibility for other corporate priorities. The announcement signals confidence in the bank’s capital base and is positioned to support dividend sustainability. On Oct 6, TD Bank released a U.S. survey showing that 69 % of respondents would allow a bank‑provided AI assistant to complete at least one financial task, an increase from earlier research that found 48 % interest in AI‑powered assistants for bill payment, alerts, and transfers. The survey results suggest growing consumer openness to AI, reinforcing TD’s digital transformation initiatives. Also on Oct 6, a TD Insurance survey revealed that 48 % of Canadians plan to leave their primary residence unattended for more than one day during the fall or winter, with 81 % of secondary property owners intending to do so, and only 61 % of respondents understand their insurance requirements for unattended homes. These findings highlight a gap between preparedness and policy knowledge, underscoring potential risks for homeowners and insurers alike.
LOW TARGET
$95 -16.3%
2 analysts
MEAN TARGET
$119 +4.9%
13 analysts
HIGH TARGET
$135 +18.7%
9 analysts
PRICE RANGE
$95.28 - $135.14
SB / B / H / S / SS
5/11/6/1/1
DAILYIQ EST.
$122.30 (+7.4%)

EPS

EstBeatMiss
$1.95$2.11$2.28$2.45$2.61Q2'25Q3'26
QtrEstActual+/−
Q3'26$2.54 - -
Q2'25$2.02$2.20+8.7%

Revenue

EstBeatMiss
$15.5B$15.5B$15.5B$15.6B$15.6BQ2'25Q3'26
QtrEstActual+/−
Q3'26$15.6B - -
Q2'25 - $15.5B -
Full Earnings BreakdownEstimates, actuals, guidance, and historical context
→

Market Data

TD Stock Snapshot

BEARISH32/100
$113.90+$0.03 (0.0%)
Market cap
186.60B
P/E ratio
17.4
Day range
$113.67 – $117.72
News sentiment
71/100 · Bullish
Analyst target
$119.40 (+4.8%)
Consensus
Buy · 24 analysts
52-week range+46.8% off low · -9.3% from high
$77.58$125.51
Price $113.90 DailyIQ Est. $122.30

The signals on TD lean bearish, and the range position backs that up. The stock is liquid enough that positioning changes get absorbed without distorting the trend.

Behaviour On Record

What TD's own history says about today's numbers

Realized volatility (21d)
16.1% 44th pct
Below its peak
-6.1%
vs 200-day average
+8.5%
Up days (1y)
59%

Toronto Dominion Bank (The) is currently running 16.1% annualised volatility over the last 21 sessions. Measured against TD's own 13 years of daily returns rather than a market-wide average, that is the 44th percentile — close to its own typical level, against a typical reading of 17.0%. The distinction matters because a number that looks calm for one stock is turbulent for another, and the absolute figure on its own tells you neither.

TD is trading -6.1% below its running peak. Across 12 full years on file, its median worst-drawdown-in-a-year was -18.4%, and the deepest was -40.9% in 2020. The current pullback is therefore shallower than what this stock gives back in a typical year, which is context worth having before treating it as a dislocation.

Price sits +8.5% from its 200-day moving average. Against every other day in its history, that gap ranks at the 72nd percentile — a somewhat wider gap than its own norm. Over the past year TD closed higher on 59% of sessions, and it is currently 1 session into a falling streak.

On October specifically: over 13 years of records, TD finished the month higher 8 of 13 times, with a median return of +1.0% and an average of -0.8%. Its strongest month historically has been November at +3.2% on average, its weakest March at -2.1%. Seasonality is a weak signal on its own — a decade is a small sample and regimes change — but it is a real distribution rather than a rule of thumb.

Overnight risk is measurable too: TD has opened more than 2% away from the prior close in 69 of 3,267 sessions (2.1% of the time), with the largest gaps running +5.7% and -7.7%. For anyone holding through an event, that rate is a better guide to overnight exposure than the intraday range.

All figures computed from 3,268 daily closes between 2013-10-07 and 2026-10-05, split-adjusted, recomputed daily. Percentiles are against TD's own 13-year history, not a peer group or index.

Sector Rotation

Is money rotating into or out of TD's sector?

Toronto Dominion Bank (The) sits in the Financials sector, currently ranked 11th of 12 GICS sectors by relative-strength rotation score (improving). Within its narrower Banks industry group, TD ranks 11th of 15 tracked industries, lagging.

Sector rank
#11 of 12
Sector state
Improving
Sector rotation score
27
Industry rank
#11 of 15

Options Market

What is the options market pricing for TD?

CallsPuts

For Toronto Dominion Bank (The)'s nearest expiry (2026-10-16, 8 days out), open interest is roughly balanced between puts and calls (put/call ratio of 1.02), with at-the-money implied volatility around 26.8%. The options market is pricing roughly a ±5.7% move by that expiry — a range of about $112.87–$126.43.

Put/call ratio (2026-10-16)
1.02
ATM implied volatility
26.8%
Total open interest
22,651
Expected move by 2026-10-16
±5.7% ($112.87–$126.43)

Analyst Rating Changes

Are analysts turning bullish or bearish on TD?

RBC Capital most recently reiterated its rating on Toronto Dominion Bank (The) to Outperform on Jun 1, 2026 with a price target of $156 (from $138). Over the last 90 days, coverage has run 0 upgrades against 0 downgrades, a net mixed lean.

Latest action
RBC Capital — Outperform
90-day upgrades
0
90-day downgrades
0
Net rating momentum
0
DateFirmActionRatingPrice target
Jun 1, 2026RBC CapitalMaintainedOutperform$138 → $156
May 4, 2026ScotiabankUpgradeSector Perform → Sector Outperform$150
Oct 3, 2025RBC CapitalUpgradeSector Perform → Outperform$93 → $120
May 23, 2025RBC CapitalMaintainedSector Perform$87 → $93
Feb 28, 2025RBC CapitalMaintainedSector Perform$86 → $87
Dec 18, 2024BMO CapitalUpgradeMarket Perform → Outperform$90
Dec 6, 2024RBC CapitalMaintainedSector Perform$82 → $77
May 24, 2024BMO CapitalMaintainedMarket Perform$86 → $84
Dec 18, 2023B of A SecuritiesDowngradeBuy → Neutral-
Aug 25, 2023Credit SuisseMaintainedOutperform$93 → $92
Aug 25, 2023RBC CapitalMaintainedOutperform$96 → $94
Aug 25, 2023BarclaysMaintainedEqual-Weight$84 → $82

Held by These ETFs

TD is a top holding in these ETFs tracked on DailyIQ — bar length shows portfolio weight.

News Sentiment Analysis

Sentiment gathered from recent headlines

71/100
Strong NegativeNeutralStrong Positive
BULLISH

Recent News Coverage

Most recent articles, ranked by recency (click to expand).

10+ articles
What did this article say?
Toronto‑Dominion Bank announced a board‑approved share repurchase program, pending regulatory approval. The plan is positioned as a core element of the bank’s capital management strategy, aimed at returning capital to shareholders while preserving flexibility for other corporate priorities. The move signals confidence in the bank’s capital position and supports dividend sustainability. The announcement was made on October 7, 2024, and reflects TD’s ongoing focus on shareholder value creation.
What did this article say?
A TD Bank U.S. survey released on October 6 found that 69% of respondents would allow a bank‑provided AI assistant to complete at least one financial task on their behalf, indicating growing consumer openness to AI in banking. The study also revealed that 49% of users had employed an AI assistant in the past year for financial research or decision‑making, though 83% still verified the information with another source or professional. These findings suggest that while consumers view AI as a helpful tool, they do not yet see it as a full replacement for human judgment, underscoring a cautious but positive trend for TD’s AI initiatives.
What did this article say?
A recent TD Insurance survey found that 48% of Canadians plan to leave their primary residence unattended for more than one day during the fall or winter, while the figure rises to 81% among owners of secondary properties. The survey also revealed that 25% of respondents had experienced a property issue while away, increasing to 62% for seasonal owners, and that only 61% of Canadians understand what their insurance policy requires when they are away. These findings highlight a gap between preparedness and policy knowledge, underscoring potential risks for homeowners and insurers alike.
What did this article say?
The article compares UBS and TD Bank, noting TD’s Zacks Rank of #2 (Buy) and a solid Value grade in the Style Scores system. It highlights that TD’s earnings outlook is improving, though not as strong as UBS’s #1 rank. The piece positions TD as a solid value option for investors seeking undervalued banks.
What did this article say?
The TD Small Business Year-End Outlook & Preparedness Survey, conducted by Wakefield Research, found that 85% of small business owners expected stronger revenue through the remainder of 2026. Seventy‑two percent of respondents were more optimistic about the U.S. economy than six months ago, and 62% planned to seek financing before year‑end. The results suggest a resilient small‑business sector and a potential uptick in loan demand for TD.
What did this article say?
TD announced a call for applications to its Indigenous Peoples Scholarship program for the year 2027. The initiative aims to support Indigenous students pursuing post-secondary education. The announcement was made through a press release issued by CNW Group on October 1. No immediate financial impact or change to TD’s guidance was disclosed.
What did this article say?
Toronto‑Dominion Bank announced a new share‑buyback program worth up to $10 billion, slated to conclude by July 2027. The plan will repurchase up to 61 million shares, representing roughly 3.74 % of the bank’s outstanding equity. By reducing the share count, the buyback is expected to lift earnings per share and return on equity, key metrics for investors. The program follows a prior $7 billion buyback that began in January 2026. Approval from Canada’s Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions is required, and TD intends to cancel all repurchased shares.
What did this article say?
Toronto‑Dominion Bank announced a new CA$10 billion share buyback program, representing up to 3.74% of its outstanding shares. The program, capped at 61 million shares, will run until July 2027 under a normal course issuer bid and may include purchases on U.S. exchanges. The move follows a completed CA$7 billion buyback and signals management’s confidence in the bank’s valuation. The program is subject to TSX approval and aims to return capital to shareholders while supporting the share price.
What did this article say?
Toronto‑Dominion Bank announced a new share buyback program worth up to 10 billion Canadian dollars ($7.05 billion). The plan would repurchase up to 61 million shares and is slated to run through July, pending regulatory approval. The move signals confidence in the bank’s balance sheet and aims to enhance shareholder returns.
What did this article say?
On September 30, 2026, TD Bank Group announced its intention to start a new share buyback program that could repurchase up to C$10 billion of common shares, subject to OSFI approval. The program would not exceed 61 million shares and is expected to conclude by July 2027. TD had already repurchased C$7 billion of shares earlier that month under its existing normal course issuer bid. The move signals confidence in the bank’s balance sheet and aims to enhance shareholder value.

Technical Analysis

Real-time indicators across multiple timeframes

32
BEARISH
Technical indicators reflect the latest computed signal mix for this timeframe.
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Congressional Trading Activity
2 disclosed trades · ~$40.5K est. traded value · 1 buys, 1 sells
MemberChamberStateTypeAmountTradedFiled
Donald W. NorcrossHouseNJ01▼ Sell$15K - $50K2024-06-042025-09-04
Shelley Moore CapitoSenateWV▲ Buy$1K - $15K2017-09-052017-10-16
View full congressional trading history →

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