DailyIQ
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Sector:TechnologyAll sectors
Last updated 6 minutes ago

BBAI·BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc.

$.
+. (+.%)
High
$5.50
Open
$5.08
Market Cap
2.37B
52W High
$9.39
Low
$4.71
P. Close
$4.94
P/E
-
52W Low
$3.01
Fwd P/E
-24.25
Mean Target
$5.33
Technical Score (1D)
73
BUY
News Sentiment
60
BULLISH
BigBear.ai shares saw a surge on Thursday, aligning with broader strength in AI-focused equities and positive market sentiment. This upward movement follows recent news of BigBear.ai's AI-powered cargo security solution being deployed in Panama by the nation's largest logistics operator, marking a significant expansion into global trade security. This commercial deployment with Panama Transshipment Group could reshape the narrative around the company's international growth prospects. Earlier in the week, the company reported a first-quarter backlog increase of 14% to $281.9 million, bolstered by a significant classified award and other national security wins, while reaffirming full-year revenue guidance. Gross margin expansion was also noted, driven by higher-margin generative AI revenue. Despite these positive developments, the company is also facing a class action lawsuit linked to accounting errors, necessitating financial restatements and causing delays in regulatory filings, introducing a new layer of risk. Investors will be watching to see if the company can sustain its momentum in both its defense and expanding commercial AI applications while navigating these governance challenges.
Earnings Summary
BigBear.ai Holdings (BBAI) provides artificial intelligence-driven decision intelligence solutions for national security, supply chain management, and digital identity applications. Operating in the Technology sector, specifically Information Technology Services, the company offers data processing, predictive analytics, and advanced visualization. BBAI's recent earnings performance has been mixed. In Q1 2026, EPS was -$0.08, meeting analyst expectations, while revenue of $34.44 million exceeded the estimate of $34.27 million. This follows a Q4 2025 where EPS of -$0.04 missed the estimate of -$0.0612, and revenue of $27.30 million missed the estimate of $33.97 million. Earlier quarters also showed variability, with Q3 2025 EPS of $0.01 beating the -$0.07333 estimate, and Q2 2025 EPS of -$0.71 missing the -$0.06333 estimate. Revenue has generally trended downwards in recent reported quarters, with Q1 2026 being an exception. Historically, BBAI has shown a pattern of EPS misses, though Q3 2025 and Q1 2026 showed beats or met expectations. Recent news highlights a significant classified national security contract award of over $60 million, bolstering the company's backlog to $281.9 million, and the acquisition of Ask Sage to enhance generative AI capabilities. Management has affirmed full-year 2026 revenue guidance. Investors will be watching how new contracts and enhanced generative AI offerings translate into sustained revenue growth and profitability, especially given past revenue declines and cash burn concerns, while also noting the company's strong cash position and strategic expansion in national security and AI.

EPS

EstBeatMiss
$-0.82$-0.58$-0.35$-0.12$0.12Q1'25Q2'25Q3'25Q4'25Q1'26
QtrEstActual+/−
Q1'26$-0.08$-0.08+2.0%
Q4'25$-0.06$-0.04+34.6%
Q3'25$-0.07$0.01+113.6%
Q2'25$-0.06$-0.71-1021.1%
Q1'25$-0.06$-0.25-341.2%

Revenue

EstBeatMiss
$26M$29M$31M$33M$36MQ1'25Q2'25Q3'25Q4'25Q1'26
QtrEstActual+/−
Q1'26$34M$34M+0.5%
Q4'25$34M$27M-19.6%
Q3'25 - $33M -
Q2'25 - $32M -
Q1'25 - $35M -
Full Earnings BreakdownEstimates, actuals, guidance, and historical context
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Market Data

BBAI Stock Snapshot

BBAI is currently trading at $5.04, giving BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. a market cap of 2.37B. Today's range spans $4.71–$5.50, with shares opening at $5.08 and moving up $0.10 (2.1%) from the prior close. DailyIQ's technical score sits at 73/100 (BUY) with a news sentiment reading of 60/100.

Over the past year BBAI has traded between $3.01 and $9.39 - the current price is +67.5% off the 52-week low and -46.3% from the high. 11 analysts cover the stock with a Buy consensus and a mean 12-month target of $5.33 (range $5.00–$6.00), implying upside of +5.7%.

Discovery is a key element of the BBAI setup - at 2.37B in Technology market cap, a BUY technical read (73/100) with bullish sentiment (60/100) is the point where research-driven buy-side investors begin to build initial positions before the name enters mainstream screens. Price: $5.04 (in the lower half of its 52-week range). Annual range: $3.01–$9.39. The discovery phase in small-cap names is where the largest asymmetric returns are generated - and the current setup is in that zone.

News sentiment (60/100, bullish) plays a larger role in small-cap price discovery than in mega-cap names, because the analyst coverage base is narrower and each incremental news item carries more weight in the information set. For BBAI — 2.37B in Technology market cap, technical score 73/100 (BUY), price $5.04 (in the lower half of its 52-week range) — a sustained improvement in the news backdrop could accelerate the bullish technical thesis toward the upper end of the $3.01–$9.39 range faster than fundamental models would suggest.