BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. (BBAI) Stock Price, News, Analysis

Technical Score (1D)

SELL

News Sentiment

BEARISH

BigBear.ai’s board just lost a senior director, Kirk Konert, who resigned effective September 13, 2026, with no operational disagreement cited. The departure removes a long‑time audit and compensation voice, potentially tightening oversight of the company’s aggressive expansion and upcoming acquisition plans, especially those tied to government contracts. For the next 1–10 trading days, the market will likely focus on how the board fills the vacancy and whether any changes to governance structure or committee composition are announced. A swift appointment of a board member with similar experience could reassure investors that oversight remains robust, while a delay or a less experienced replacement might raise concerns about strategic direction. The company’s statement that day‑to‑day operations remain stable should dampen immediate volatility, but the loss of a seasoned governance figure could prompt scrutiny of future deal approvals and risk management practices. Watch for any board meeting minutes or press releases that detail the succession plan, as this will signal whether the company is maintaining its governance standards. Additionally, monitor any shifts in the audit or compensation committees that could affect financial reporting timelines or executive remuneration. Finally, keep an eye on the company’s upcoming earnings call, where management may address how the board change could influence its growth strategy and contract negotiations.

BBAI|Analyst Targets

LOW TARGET

$4 +41.8%

4 analysts

MEAN TARGET

$4 +41.8%

3 analysts

HIGH TARGET

$4 +41.8%

4 analysts

PRICE RANGE

$4.00 - $4.00

SB / B / H / S / SS

2/4/3/1/1

DAILYIQ EST.

$4.00 (+41.8%)

BBAI|Company Info

Sector

Technology

Industry

Information Technology Services

Exchange

NYQ

Country

United States

Website

bigbear.ai

Symbol

BBAI

Description

BigBear.ai (BBAI) specializes in providing artificial intelligence-driven decision intelligence solutions. The company's core offerings are designed to enhance operational efficiency and strategic insights across several key sectors. BigBear.ai supports clients in national security, supply chain management, and digital identity applications. These solutions are delivered through a suite of services, including data processing, predictive analytics, and advanced visualization capabilities. The company's customer base includes U.S. government agencies, as well as businesses in manufacturing, logistics, and travel-related industries. Founded in 1988, BigBear.ai is headquartered in McLean, Virginia.

BBAI|Insider Trading

Bought (1Y)

0 shares

Sold (1Y)

62,409 shares

$238K

Gainey Sean Alexander-

Award/Grant32,776 shares2026-08-13

McAleenan KevinChief Executive Officer

Tax Withholding23,562 shares2026-06-30

Blankenship CarolynGeneral Counsel and Secretary

Tax Withholding9,019 shares2026-06-30

Ricker Sean RaymondChief Financial Officer

Tax Withholding10,069 shares2026-06-30

BATTLE SEAN BERNARD-

Award/Grant36,070 shares2026-06-14

BBAI|Fundamentals

Bearish

Verdict: Bearish

✕Revenue declining year over year

✕Negative net margin

✕Negative operating cash flow

Gross Margin

22.3%

Net Margin

-230.2%

Revenue CAGR

11.6%

Current Ratio

1.78x

Debt / Equity

0.17x

Return on Equity

-48.0%

BBAI|Earnings Snapshot

Earnings Summary

BigBear.ai (BBAI) is a technology firm specializing in artificial intelligence‑driven decision intelligence solutions for national security, supply chain management, and digital identity, serving U.S. government agencies and commercial clients in manufacturing, logistics, and travel. Operating within the Information Technology Services sector, the company focuses on data processing, predictive analytics, and advanced visualization to enhance operational efficiency and strategic insights. In the most recent quarters, Q4 2025 revenue fell to $27.3 million from $33.9 million in Q4 2024, while Q1 2026 revenue slightly increased to $34.4 million, reflecting a modest rebound after a decline in the prior year. EPS, however, remained negative, with Q4 2025 at –$0.04 versus –$0.06 in Q4 2024, and Q1 2026 at –$0.08 versus –$0.08 in Q1 2025, indicating a flattening of earnings despite revenue volatility. The company has consistently missed EPS estimates in all reported quarters, with the only positive EPS in Q3 2025 (0.01) still below analyst expectations. Historically, BBAI has shown a downward trend in revenue growth, with a 19.3 % drop in FY 2025, while gross margins improved to 32.8 % YoY, suggesting cost discipline but limited top‑line expansion. Recent news highlights a high concentration risk, with 51 % of sales from a single U.S. government contract, and concerns over potentially problematic accounting practices that could affect the reliability of future profit disclosures. Investors should watch for any announcements of new commercial or international contracts that could diversify revenue, updates on accounting policy clarifications, and guidance on cost management, as these factors will be key to assessing the company’s ability to stabilize earnings and mitigate concentration risk.

Read full report

EPS

EstBeatMiss

Qtr	Est	Actual	+/−
Q3'26	$-0.06	-	-
Q1'26	$-0.08	$-0.08	+2.0%
Q4'25	$-0.06	$-0.04	+34.6%
Q3'25	$-0.07	$0.01	+113.6%
Q2'25	$-0.06	$-0.71	-1021.1%
Q1'25	$-0.06	$-0.25	-341.2%

Revenue

EstBeatMiss

Qtr	Est	Actual	+/−
Q3'26	$40M	-	-
Q1'26	$34M	$34M	+0.5%
Q4'25	$34M	$27M	-19.6%
Q3'25	-	$33M	-
Q2'25	-	$32M	-
Q1'25	-	$35M	-

Full Earnings BreakdownEstimates, actuals, guidance, and historical context

→

BBAI|Monthly Returns

Market Data

BBAI Stock Snapshot

SELL18/100

$2.82+$0.01 (0.5%)

Market cap: 1.34B
Day range: $2.76 – $2.92
News sentiment: 33/100 · Bearish
Analyst target: $4.00 (+41.8%)
Consensus: Buy · 11 analysts

52-week range+11.9% off low · -70.0% from high

$2.52$9.39

Price $2.82 DailyIQ Est. $4.00

The signals on BBAI lean bearish, and the range position backs that up. Company-specific news dominates here; sector-level flows matter less than for larger names.

Behaviour On Record

What BBAI's own history says about today's numbers

Realized volatility (21d): 44.5% 2nd pct
Below its peak: -78.9%
vs 200-day average: -32.9%
Up days (1y): 44%

BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. is currently running 44.5% annualised volatility over the last 21 sessions. Measured against BBAI's own 4 years of daily returns rather than a market-wide average, that is the 2nd percentile — unusually subdued by its own history, against a typical reading of 96.7%. The distinction matters because a number that looks calm for one stock is turbulent for another, and the absolute figure on its own tells you neither.

BBAI is trading -78.9% below its running peak. Across 3 full years on file, its median worst-drawdown-in-a-year was -75.6%, and the deepest was -95.5% in 2022. The current drawdown is already deeper than this stock's typical annual low point, which puts it in the part of its range where past recoveries began — and where past declines also continued.

Price sits -32.9% from its 200-day moving average. Against every other day in its history, that gap ranks at the 20th percentile — a narrower gap than it typically runs. Over the past year BBAI closed higher on 44% of sessions, and it is currently 1 session into a falling streak.

On September specifically: over 5 years of records, BBAI finished the month higher 3 of 5 times, with a median return of +1.4% and an average of +3.6%. Its strongest month historically has been December at +8.6% on average, its weakest September at +3.6%. Seasonality is a weak signal on its own — a decade is a small sample and regimes change — but it is a real distribution rather than a rule of thumb.

Overnight risk is measurable too: BBAI has opened more than 2% away from the prior close in 284 of 1,046 sessions (27.2% of the time), with the largest gaps running +64.7% and -15.3%. For anyone holding through an event, that rate is a better guide to overnight exposure than the intraday range.

All figures computed from 1,047 daily closes between 2021-12-08 and 2026-09-18, split-adjusted, recomputed daily. Percentiles are against BBAI's own 5-year history, not a peer group or index.

Sector Rotation

Is money rotating into or out of BBAI's sector?

BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. sits in the Technology sector, currently ranked 1st of 11 GICS sectors by relative-strength rotation score (leading). Within its narrower Software industry group, BBAI ranks 3rd of 15 tracked industries, leading.

Sector rank: #1 of 11
Sector state: Leading
Sector rotation score: 90
Industry rank: #3 of 15

Options Market

What is the options market pricing for BBAI?

CallsPuts

For BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc.'s nearest expiry (2026-09-25, 5 days out), open interest is call-heavy, a bullish tilt (put/call ratio of 0.24), with at-the-money implied volatility around 62.5%. The options market is pricing roughly a ±8.6% move by that expiry — a range of about $2.82–$3.34.

Put/call ratio (2026-09-25): 0.24
ATM implied volatility: 62.5%
Total open interest: 9,871
Expected move by 2026-09-25: ±8.6% ($2.82–$3.34)

Analyst Rating Changes

Are analysts turning bullish or bearish on BBAI?

Cantor Fitzgerald most recently reiterated its rating on BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. to Neutral on Jul 31, 2026 with a price target of $4 (from $5). Over the last 90 days, coverage has run 0 upgrades against 0 downgrades, a net mixed lean.

Latest action: Cantor Fitzgerald — Neutral
90-day upgrades: 0
90-day downgrades: 0
Net rating momentum: 0

Date	Firm	Action	Rating	Price target
Jul 31, 2026	Cantor Fitzgerald	Maintained	Neutral	$5 → $4
Mar 3, 2026	Cantor Fitzgerald	Maintained	Neutral	$6 → $5
Mar 3, 2026	HC Wainwright & Co.	Maintained	Buy	$8 → $6
Jan 7, 2026	Cantor Fitzgerald	Downgrade	Overweight → Neutral	$7 → $6
Nov 11, 2025	HC Wainwright & Co.	Reiterated	Buy	$8
Aug 12, 2025	HC Wainwright & Co.	Maintained	Buy	$9 → $8
Jul 1, 2025	HC Wainwright & Co.	Maintained	Buy	$6 → $9
Mar 7, 2025	Cantor Fitzgerald	Maintained	Overweight	$8 → $6
Mar 7, 2025	HC Wainwright & Co.	Maintained	Buy	$7 → $6
Dec 30, 2024	HC Wainwright & Co.	Maintained	Buy	$3 → $7
Nov 6, 2024	HC Wainwright & Co.	Reiterated	Buy	$3
Oct 15, 2024	HC Wainwright & Co.	Reiterated	Buy	$3

BBAI Competitive Positioning

BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. (BBAI) is tracked alongside these names in Information Technology Services on DailyIQ — ranked by market cap, with today's move alongside.

BBAIyou're hereBigBear.ai Holdings, Inc.$1.3B+0.53%
IBMInternational Business Machines Corporation$216.3B+0.24%
NBISNebius Group N.V.$60.8B-0.50%
CDWCDW Corporation$18.3B-0.10%
LDOSLeidos Holdings, Inc.$16.0B+0.05%
JKHYJack Henry & Associates, Inc.$10.9B0.00%

Held by These ETFs

BBAI is a top holding in these ETFs tracked on DailyIQ — bar length shows portfolio weight.

News Sentiment Analysis

Sentiment gathered from recent headlines

33/100

Strong NegativeNeutralStrong Positive

BEARISH

Recent News Coverage

Most recent articles, ranked by recency (click to expand).

10+ articles

What did this article say?

BigBear.ai’s stock has surged nearly 100% over three years, prompting analysts to scrutinize whether the current $2.80 price reflects the company’s underlying sales and growth prospects. The firm’s ability to convert AI and analytics contracts into sustainable revenue is a key focus, as is the capital required to scale further. Analysts compare BBAI’s price‑to‑sales ratio to a broader set of AI small caps to assess valuation fairness. The next price move may hinge on whether investors accept the current market value as justified by the sales base and growth trajectory.

What did this article say?

Director Kirk Konert resigned from BigBear.ai’s board effective September 13, 2026, with the company stating no operational disagreement was the cause. Konert had served on audit and compensation committees, making his departure a notable governance change. While the resignation does not signal immediate operational risk, it adds a governance risk factor that could affect investor confidence. Market watchers should track any subsequent board appointments and the company’s governance disclosures for signs of stability or further changes.

What did this article say?

BigBear.ai Holdings (BBAI) fell 2.08% to $2.82, trailing the broader market and lagging its sector by a wide margin. The company’s stock has declined 10.28% over the past month, reflecting investor concern over its earnings outlook. Analysts project a modest earnings loss of $0.05 per share for the current quarter, with revenue expected to rise 15% year‑over‑year. Despite the revenue upside, the negative earnings forecast and the steep monthly decline signal a cautious stance for traders. Monitoring the upcoming earnings release will be critical to gauge whether the market’s concerns are justified.

What did this article say?

The article contrasts BigBear.ai’s software‑driven AI solutions for supply chains and defense with IonQ’s quantum‑hardware focus, highlighting each company’s early‑stage status and distinct business models. BigBear.ai’s revenue is heavily concentrated in a few key government contracts, exposing it to budget cycle risk, while IonQ’s hardware development is still nascent. The piece offers investors a framework for evaluating the relative upside and risk of each technology sector, but does not report any new financial guidance or material corporate action for BBAI.

What did this article say?

BigBear.ai (BBAI) is highlighted for its strong government contracts, yet the company’s revenue is heavily concentrated with the U.S. government accounting for about 51% of sales. The analysis points to potential accounting challenges that could impact future earnings. Compared to D‑Wave Quantum, BBAI’s growth prospects are more modest but steadier, while D‑Wave’s rapid cash burn raises concerns. The piece suggests that BBAI’s sustainability hinges on diversifying its client base and resolving internal accounting issues. Investors should monitor any updates on revenue diversification and financial reporting clarity.

What did this article say?

BigBear.ai Holdings (BBAI) has fallen 29.4% over the last three months, lagging behind the broader IT services sector and the S&P 500. The decline stems from doubts over government‑contract conversion, intense peer competition, and ongoing cash burn despite first‑half revenue and earnings growth. Management is focusing on expanding liquidity and margin improvement, but the short‑term outlook remains pressured. Investors are watching how quickly the company can convert contracts into revenue and reduce burn to stabilize the stock.

What did this article say?

BigBear.ai reported FY2025 revenue of $127.7 million, down 19.3% YoY, driven by a single customer accounting for 51% of sales. The company’s decision‑intelligence platform remains focused on U.S. government and defense clients, but the high concentration adds risk. While gross margins improved to 32.8%, the revenue contraction signals potential pressure on future growth.

What did this article say?

BigBear.ai added more than 20 new government contracts in Q2 2026, including NASA and Naval Air Systems Command, boosting its backlog by 9% and reinforcing its position in secure generative AI for defense. The company’s ConductorOS platform demonstrated interoperability in Army exercises, and its CMMC Level 2 certification strengthens its appeal to federal agencies.

What did this article say?

BigBear.ai’s stock has fallen 46% year‑to‑date, trading below $3 per share, reflecting investor doubts about its growth trajectory. The company’s revenue growth has been uneven, and analysts question whether its government ties and Palantir‑style positioning can sustain long‑term expansion. Despite occasional optimism about a turnaround, the current market view remains cautious, with no new catalysts to justify a rebound. Traders should monitor earnings guidance and any sign of renewed customer acquisition momentum.

What did this article say?

BigBear.ai’s stock fell below the $3 threshold after a modest post‑earnings rally, raising concerns about a potential reverse split. The company reported Q2 revenue of $36.7 million, up 13% YoY, and improved gross margin to 32.8%, yet net losses dropped only to $25.7 million from $228.6 million a year earlier. Management reaffirmed full‑year revenue guidance but did not address lingering operational issues. The decline suggests the market is pricing in continued weakness and possible dilution. Traders should monitor the stock’s price trajectory and any corporate action announcements.

Technical Analysis

Real-time indicators across multiple timeframes

SELL

Technical indicators reflect the latest computed signal mix for this timeframe.

Unlock full technicals

Create a free account to access more indicators and deeper timeframe data.

Institutional & Hedge Fund Ownership

3 tracked managers · $45.61M combined position · 1 adding, 1 trimming, 1 unchanged (latest 13F filings)

Manager	Trend	Shares Held	% of Co.	Position Value	Filed
Geode Capital Management, LLC	▲ Buy	12,396,241	2.60%	$45.50M	2026-08-12
Neuberger Berman Group LLC	▼ Sell	23,714	0.00%	$87.0K	2026-08-13
Ancora Advisors LLC	• Hold	6,104	0.00%	$22.4K	2026-08-14

Q2 2026 flow:1.80M sh bought ($6.62M)1.7K sh sold ($6.1K)net +1.80M sh (+$6.61M)

Congressional Trading Activity

2 disclosed trades · ~$40.5K est. traded value · 2 buys, 0 sells

Member	Chamber	State	Type	Amount	Traded	Filed
Lisa McClain	House	MI09	▲ Buy	$1K - $15K	2026-02-04	2026-03-04
Lisa McClain	House	MI09	▲ Buy	$15K - $50K	2025-08-07	2025-09-12

BBAI·BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc.

EPS

Revenue

BBAI Stock Snapshot

What BBAI's own history says about today's numbers

Is money rotating into or out of BBAI's sector?

What is the options market pricing for BBAI?

Are analysts turning bullish or bearish on BBAI?

BBAI Competitive Positioning

Held by These ETFs

News Sentiment Analysis

Recent News Coverage

Technical Analysis

Real-time indicators across multiple timeframes

News Sentiment Analysis

Recent News Coverage

Technical Analysis

Real-time indicators across multiple timeframes

Market Status

Recently Viewed

Portfolio

Email Alerts

Portfolio News

Economic Events

Earnings Events

Economic News

BBAI·BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc.

EPS

Revenue

BBAI Stock Snapshot

What BBAI's own history says about today's numbers

Is money rotating into or out of BBAI's sector?

What is the options market pricing for BBAI?

Are analysts turning bullish or bearish on BBAI?

BBAI Competitive Positioning

Held by These ETFs

News Sentiment Analysis

Recent News Coverage

Technical Analysis

Real-time indicators across multiple timeframes

Discover More

News Sentiment Analysis

Recent News Coverage

Technical Analysis

Real-time indicators across multiple timeframes

Discover More

Market Status

Recently Viewed

Portfolio

Email Alerts

Portfolio News

Economic Events

Earnings Events

Economic News