TSLA·Tesla, Inc.

Realized volatility (21d)

28.2% 4th pct

Below its peak

-25.2%

vs 200-day average

-5.1%

Up days (1y)

51%

Tesla, Inc. is currently running 28.2% annualised volatility over the last 21 sessions. Measured against TSLA's own 13 years of daily returns rather than a market-wide average, that is the 4th percentile — unusually subdued by its own history, against a typical reading of 47.4%. The distinction matters because a number that looks calm for one stock is turbulent for another, and the absolute figure on its own tells you neither.

TSLA is trading -25.2% below its running peak. Across 13 full years on file, its median worst-drawdown-in-a-year was -35.4%, and the deepest was -73.5% in 2022. The current pullback is therefore shallower than what this stock gives back in a typical year, which is context worth having before treating it as a dislocation.

Price sits -5.1% from its 200-day moving average. Against every other day in its history, that gap ranks at the 32nd percentile — close to the gap it normally carries. Over the past year TSLA closed higher on 51% of sessions, and it is currently 3 sessions into a falling streak.

On October specifically: over 14 years of records, TSLA finished the month higher 5 of 14 times, with a median return of -1.6% and an average of +0.7%. Its strongest month historically has been June at +9.3% on average, its weakest March at -3.7%. Seasonality is a weak signal on its own — a decade is a small sample and regimes change — but it is a real distribution rather than a rule of thumb.

Overnight risk is measurable too: TSLA has opened more than 2% away from the prior close in 159 of 3,274 sessions (4.9% of the time), with the largest gaps running +11.3% and -7.3%. For anyone holding through an event, that rate is a better guide to overnight exposure than the intraday range.

Across the last 3 dated reports on file, TSLA moved an average of 5.2% in the session after earnings, closing higher 0 of those 3 times, with a median move of -3.4% and a largest of -9.6%.

All figures computed from 3,275 daily closes between 2013-10-15 and 2026-10-14, split-adjusted, recomputed daily. Percentiles are against TSLA's own 13-year history, not a peer group or index.