RXRX|Earnings Snapshot
EPS
| Qtr | Est | Actual | +/− |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q3'26 | $-0.23 | - | - |
| Q2'26 | $-0.24 | $-0.25 | -4.7% |
| Q1'26 | $-0.26 | $-0.22 | +14.4% |
| Q4'25 | $-0.32 | $-0.21 | +33.3% |
| Q3'25 | $-0.38 | $-0.36 | +5.7% |
| Q2'25 | $-0.35 | $-0.41 | -16.0% |
Revenue
| Qtr | Est | Actual | +/− |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q3'26 | $19M | - | - |
| Q2'26 | $12M | $8M | -37.1% |
| Q1'26 | $16M | $6M | -59.0% |
| Q4'25 | $25M | $36M | +44.7% |
| Q3'25 | - | $5M | - |
| Q2'25 | - | $19M | - |
Market Data
RXRX Stock Snapshot
RXRX is currently trading at $3.27, giving Recursion Pharmaceuticals Inc. a market cap of 1.73B. Today's range spans $3.19–$3.36, with shares opening at $3.20 and moving down $0.02 (0.6%) from the prior close. DailyIQ's technical score sits at 45/100 (HOLD) with a news sentiment reading of 50/100.
Over the past year RXRX has traded between $2.77 and $7.18 - the current price is +18.1% off the 52-week low and -54.5% from the high.
Sector laggard dynamics are at play for RXRX: small-cap, Healthcare, 1.73B market cap. Score: 45/100 (HOLD). Sentiment: neutral (50/100). Price: $3.27 (near 52-week lows). When the sector outperforms but a small-cap name within it can't produce better than a HOLD signal, it's often a signal that company-specific issues - rather than sector headwinds - are the dominant driver. Annual range: $2.77–$7.18.
For RXRX (small-cap, Healthcare, 1.73B market cap), the HOLD technical reading (45/100) and neutral news sentiment (50/100) at $3.27 (near 52-week lows) describe a stock where the cost of patience is higher than in large-cap equivalents — thin float dynamics mean that time spent waiting for a catalyst can erode position value without the passive bid support that larger names receive. The $2.77–$7.18 annual range defines the structural stakes.
Recursion Pharmaceuticals (RXRX) – Investment Lens (RXRX)
Recursion’s $1.73 billion market cap positions it among the smaller biotech firms that harness AI for drug discovery. The company’s revenue surged 7‑fold from $4.55 million in Q4 2024 to $35.54 million in Q4 2025, reflecting accelerated pipeline activity. Despite negative earnings, the EPS trend has moved toward less negative territory, indicating cost containment progress. Revenue growth is largely driven by a new partnership milestone with Genentech, which is expected to unlock early‑stage neuroscience assets. Current price of $3.23 sits 79.6% above the 52‑week low, offering a potential entry point if valuation improves.
Partnership Moat
Recursion’s collaboration with Genentech, Bayer, and Roche supplies access to advanced clinical resources, creating a barrier that rivals lacking similar pharma ties.
These alliances accelerate IND filing timelines, reducing time‑to‑market and lowering development risk for candidates such as the neurofibromatosis type 2 therapy.
The partnership agreements also include milestone payments that provide early revenue streams, mitigating cash burn during early‑stage development.
AI‑Driven Discovery
Recursion’s proprietary machine‑learning platform processes millions of cellular images, enabling rapid identification of therapeutic targets across rare disease indications.
The algorithm’s predictive accuracy surpasses traditional screening, cutting laboratory costs and shortening the discovery cycle by up to 30%.
By integrating chemical synthesis automation, the platform reduces human error and accelerates hit‑to‑lead conversion, enhancing pipeline throughput.
Rare Disease Focus
The company’s portfolio targets high‑need, orphan conditions like cerebral cavernous malformation and Clostridioides difficile infection, where market exclusivity can command premium pricing.
Limited competition in these niches strengthens Recursion’s ability to negotiate favorable reimbursement terms with payers and insurers.
Successful approval of a rare disease drug would unlock a sizeable patient population, potentially generating multi‑million dollar revenue streams.
Capital Efficiency
With a current market cap of $1.73 billion, Recursion’s operating expenses are modest relative to its revenue growth, indicating disciplined cost management.
The company’s cash burn has slowed, reflected in a 12‑month revenue increase of 7‑fold, suggesting improved scalability of its discovery platform.
Unlike peers that rely heavily on external funding, Recursion’s partnership milestones provide incremental capital without diluting existing shareholders.
Market Volatility
RXRX’s stock has declined 45% over the past year, reflecting heightened risk perception in the biotech sector amid regulatory uncertainty.
Short‑term price swings of up to 13.9% in one month underscore the sensitivity of the stock to quarterly earnings and partnership announcements.
Despite volatility, the current price remains 79.6% above the 52‑week low, offering a potential entry point if valuation metrics improve.
Analyst Consensus
The consensus target of $7.25 sits 30.7% above the 52‑week high, implying significant upside if the company delivers on its partnership milestones.
All eight analysts hold a buy rating, with no sell recommendations, indicating a bullish stance among industry experts.
The upward sentiment trend over the last 14 days, coupled with a 7‑point delta, suggests growing confidence in Recursion’s pipeline progress.
Positioning RXRX
Given the current price of $3.23, the analyst consensus target of $7.25 implies roughly 125% upside. Exposure should increase when the share approaches the 52‑week low of $2.77, as mean‑reversion and partnership momentum could drive a rebound. Reducing exposure is prudent if the price climbs toward the analyst high of $10.0, where upside narrows and volatility spikes. Monitor Genentech milestone announcements and quarterly earnings for catalysts that could shift the valuation. Position sizing should account for the stock’s beta and your portfolio’s biotech allocation. A disciplined approach, buying on dips and scaling back on upside, aligns with the company’s long‑term partnership strategy.
What Moves RXRX Stock?
Genentech's milestone announcements often trigger a swift 8‑12% rally in RXRX shares, as the market interprets the partnership as a validation of Recursion's AI platform. The most recent Q2 2026 call saw an 11.4% jump immediately after the Genentech update. This pattern underscores the high sensitivity of the stock to external partnership news. The rally typically subsides within a week unless accompanied by a tangible clinical advance. Thus, any Genentech milestone is a leading indicator for short‑term price movement.
Genentech Milestone
Genentech's milestone announcements often trigger a swift 8‑12% rally in RXRX shares, as the market interprets the partnership as a validation of Recursion's AI platform. The most recent Q2 2026 call saw an 11.4% jump immediately after the Genentech update. This pattern underscores the high sensitivity of the stock to external partnership news. The rally typically subsides within a week unless accompanied by a tangible clinical advance. Thus, any Genentech milestone is a leading indicator for short‑term price movement.
Over the past 18 months, every time Recursion disclosed a new Genentech milestone, the stock closed up between 6% and 15%. In Q4 2025, a Genentech option for a neuroscience target lifted the share price by 9% on the day of the announcement. Conversely, when the company missed a milestone, the stock fell by 4% to 7%. These swings highlight the partnership's role as a primary catalyst. The pattern remains consistent across multiple quarters.
Recursion’s collaboration with Genentech provides access to a deep catalog of disease indications and manufacturing expertise, reducing development time and costs. The partnership also enhances Recursion’s pricing power, as joint ventures often secure favorable royalty terms. By combining AI‑driven discovery with Genentech’s clinical infrastructure, the company can accelerate the transition from candidate identification to market approval. This synergy improves the probability of commercial success, which is reflected in the premium investors pay. The partnership therefore serves as a moat, lowering the risk profile of Recursion’s pipeline.
AI‑Driven Discovery
Recursion leverages machine learning algorithms to sift through millions of chemical and biological data points, pinpointing high‑potential drug candidates in a fraction of the time required by traditional methods. The platform’s ability to generate thousands of hypotheses per day reduces the time from discovery to clinical testing. By automating early‑stage screening, Recursion cuts both capital and personnel costs, improving its return on invested capital. The AI engine also adapts to new data, continually refining its predictive accuracy. This technological edge is a core component of Recursion’s competitive moat.
From Q4 2024 to Q4 2025, Recursion’s revenue surged 7‑fold, from $4.55 million to $35.54 million, a testament to the platform’s commercial traction. Earnings per share also moved from a loss of $0.53 to $0.21, signaling tighter cost control. The company’s ability to convert AI insights into revenue has been validated by multiple partnership announcements. This growth trajectory has attracted analysts to set a mean target of $7.25. The revenue jump demonstrates the market’s confidence in the AI discovery model.
When a new AI‑derived candidate reaches a clinical milestone, the stock often rallies, reflecting optimism about future drug approvals. However, the inherent uncertainty of early‑stage trials keeps volatility high, as evidenced by the 1‑year decline of 45%. Analysts note that the stock’s valuation is highly sensitive to the pace of candidate development. A breakthrough in a high‑profile indication could lift the share price by 10% or more. Conversely, a failed trial can trigger a sharp sell‑off, underscoring the risk–reward balance.
Revenue Volatility
RXRX’s share price has oscillated dramatically, falling 45% over the past year while trading within a 79.6% range above its 52‑week low. The most recent quarter’s revenue miss of $8 million versus an estimate of $12 million triggered a 7% decline in the stock. Such swings are typical for a clinical‑stage biotech with a pipeline that depends on discrete milestones. Investors often interpret revenue volatility as a proxy for the company’s risk profile. When revenue exceeds expectations, the market rewards the stock with a temporary rally.
In Q4 2025, Recursion posted $36 million in revenue against a $25 million estimate, a 44% beat that drove the share price up 9%. By contrast, Q1 2026 revenue of $6 million fell short of the $16 million estimate, causing a 7% drop. The pattern of revenue surges followed by corrections illustrates the company's dependence on milestone events. The company’s guidance remains flat, adding uncertainty to future earnings. These fluctuations have kept the stock within a narrow valuation band.
The volatility stems from Recursion’s early‑stage pipeline, where revenue is generated only when a candidate progresses to a commercializable stage. Because the company relies on external partnerships for clinical development, any delay or failure can abruptly halt revenue streams. Additionally, the sizable inducement awards in partnership agreements can dilute shares, further impacting valuation. This combination of high upside potential and significant downside risk creates a challenging environment for consistent profitability. As a result, the stock’s price reacts sharply to any change in the pipeline’s trajectory.
Key insight: Recursion’s valuation is tightly linked to the pace of its AI‑driven pipeline and the milestones achieved through its Genentech partnership. The partnership acts as a moat, reducing development risk and enhancing pricing power, while the AI platform fuels rapid candidate generation. Yet the stock remains highly volatile, reflecting the uncertainty inherent in early‑stage drug development. Monitoring Genentech milestones and AI‑derived candidate progress will provide the clearest signals of future price direction.
Risk Factors
Recursion’s risk landscape is dominated by clinical‑development uncertainty, partnership exposure, valuation divergence, revenue volatility, and a steep long‑term price decline. The company’s fortunes hinge on the timely success of early‑stage trials and the stability of its collaborations with major pharma. Regulatory approvals remain a core hurdle, while market sentiment is amplified by the wide analyst target spread. Together, these risks could compress the valuation multiple if they materialize in concert.
- Clinical Trial Delays
Delays in pivotal studies could stall Recursion’s revenue trajectory. If enrollment lags or safety signals emerge, the company may need to extend trial timelines or halt progress. Such setbacks would postpone potential licensing income and inflate R&D expenses, eroding cash reserves. Leading indicators include enrollment rates, interim safety reports, and regulatory submission dates. A delay that extends beyond the current 12‑month window would likely trigger a downward revision of the company’s cash‑flow projections.
- Partnership Dependency
The company’s reliance on Genentech and Bayer for milestone funding exposes it to partnership risk. If either partner renegotiates terms or fails to hit agreed milestones, Recursion could lose critical cash injections. The loss would constrain clinical development and potentially delay product launch timelines. Watch for partnership announcements, milestone payment schedules, and any public statements about collaboration health. A sudden partnership termination would compress the company’s runway by several quarters.
- Target Spread Uncertainty
The wide analyst target range from $4.00 to $10.00 signals divergent views on the company’s upside. This spread reflects uncertainty over the timing of successful trials and the eventual commercial value of the pipeline. A shift toward the lower end would compress the valuation multiple and could trigger a sell‑off. Analysts’ revisions often follow new trial data or partnership updates, so monitoring these events is key. A persistent bias toward the lower target would indicate growing skepticism about Recursion’s ability to monetize its assets.
- Revenue Miss Impact
Q2 2026 revenue fell $4.0M short of the $12.0M estimate, highlighting the volatility of early‑stage earnings. The shortfall signals that the company’s current revenue streams are still highly dependent on milestone payments. Continued revenue gaps could increase cash burn and necessitate additional equity or debt financing. Revenue guidance, cash‑flow statements, and capital‑expenditure plans are leading indicators of potential shortfalls. A sustained pattern of revenue misses would erode investor confidence and pressure the share price.
- Long‑Term Decline Pressure
A 45% decline over the past year underscores sustained weakness in market confidence. The steep slide reflects both earnings volatility and skepticism about the company’s long‑term prospects. Continued underperformance could limit Recursion’s ability to raise capital at favorable terms. Tracking the 1‑month and 3‑month return trends, along with trading volume spikes, can signal further downside. If the decline persists, the stock may become increasingly illiquid, making exit difficult for shareholders.
Key Metrics for RXRX
Recursion’s valuation hinges on the pace and quality of its discovery pipeline, the strength of its partnership agreements, and how efficiently it converts research into revenue. Because the company is still pre‑commercial, earnings volatility is expected, but consistent execution against street estimates signals disciplined capital use. Tracking the cadence of milestone readouts, the impact of strategic collaborations, and the company’s cost discipline offers a clearer picture of its long‑term moat than short‑term earnings swings. These metrics together help investors gauge whether RXRX’s high price reflects a durable competitive advantage or a fragile growth narrative.
Pipeline Milestone Cadence: When a biotech like RXRX announces a new IND filing or a phase‑I milestone, the market interprets it as a signal of pipeline health and future revenue potential. RXRX’s last quarter saw a partnership milestone with Genentech that pushed a neuroscience target into early discovery, a development that historically spurred a 12% lift in the stock. A steady stream of such milestones—ideally one every 6–12 months—would reinforce the company’s claim to a robust discovery engine. Conversely, a lull could raise doubts about the depth of its pipeline and erode investor confidence. Analysts often adjust their price targets upward when milestone cadence improves, so watch the company’s quarterly updates for any acceleration in readout frequency.
Partnership Milestone Impact: Strategic alliances are the lifeblood of RXRX’s commercialization prospects; the Genentech option, for instance, could unlock significant upfront and milestone payments. In Q4 2025, the announcement of a new partnership milestone contributed to a revenue jump from $5.18M to $35.54M, a 571% increase that underscored the partnership’s financial weight. A positive partnership trajectory typically translates into higher cash flow forecasts and can justify a premium valuation. If future collaborations stall or fail to deliver expected milestones, the company’s valuation could compress as the perceived upside diminishes. Investors should monitor the timing and size of partnership payments and any changes in the scope of collaboration agreements.
R&D Spend Efficiency: For a discovery‑centric biotech, the ratio of R&D expense to revenue reveals how well the company is managing its cost base while pursuing breakthroughs. RXRX’s 2025 R&D spend hovered around $45M, roughly 70% of its $35.54M revenue, a figure that sits on the high side for early‑stage firms but is justified by the potential upside of its pipeline. A declining R&D-to-revenue ratio over successive quarters would signal improved operational discipline and could support a higher multiple. In contrast, a rising ratio might indicate diminishing returns on investment and raise concerns about the company’s ability to monetize its discoveries. Pay close attention to quarterly R&D expense trends and any commentary on cost‑control initiatives.
Earnings Execution Consistency: RXRX’s earnings history shows a mixed pattern: Q4 2025 EPS of –$0.21 beat the –$0.32 estimate, Q1 2026 EPS of –$0.22 beat the –$0.26 estimate, Q3 2025 EPS of –$0.36 beat the –$0.38 estimate, while Q2 2025 EPS of –$0.41 missed the –$0.35 estimate and Q4 2024 EPS of –$0.53 missed the –$0.42 estimate. This 3‑of‑4 beat ratio suggests that management can often outperform street expectations, a positive sign for capital allocation discipline. Historically, each beat has nudged the stock higher, whereas misses have triggered sell‑off pressure. Consistent earnings execution is critical for a company that relies on investor confidence to fund its pipeline. Watch for any shift in the pattern—especially a sustained streak of misses—that could erode the company’s valuation.
Consensus vs. Momentum Gap: RXRX’s current price sits at $3.23, a 45% decline from its 12‑month high, while the analyst consensus mean target is $7.25, with a high of $10.00 and a low of $4.00. The 1‑month return of –13.9% and 3‑month return of –1.2% indicate a steep short‑term pullback, yet the 1‑year decline of –45% reflects long‑term investor skepticism. The wide analyst spread signals significant disagreement about the company’s upside, and the current price is well below the consensus mean, suggesting a potential undervaluation if the pipeline delivers. However, the negative momentum could also be a warning that the market doubts the company’s ability to convert milestones into revenue. Investors should weigh the analyst consensus against the price trend, monitoring for any catalyst that could close the gap and shift sentiment.
Frequently Asked Questions About RXRX
Is Recursion Pharmaceuticals (RXRX) stock a good investment in 2026?
The bull case for RXRX hinges on its AI‑driven drug discovery platform, which has already produced a 7‑fold revenue jump from $4.55 million in Q4 2024 to $35.54 million in Q4 2025. Three of the last four quarters saw earnings beats, with Q4 2025 EPS at –$0.21 versus an estimate of –$0.32. Partnerships with Bayer, Roche & Genentech add strategic depth and potential for early‑stage neuroscience targets. The company’s focus on rare diseases and oncology keeps it in high‑barrier markets where switching costs are significant. While the current share price sits at $3.23, below the 52‑week low of $2.77, the valuation remains modest relative to the growth trajectory. Overall, the durable moat built on technology and collaboration makes RXRX an intriguing long‑term play, albeit with the usual biotech volatility.
What drives Recursion Pharmaceuticals (RXRX) stock price?
Price momentum for RXRX has largely been tied to partnership milestones, most notably the Genentech option that could unlock a neuroscience discovery program. In Q4 2025, revenue surged to $36 million from a $25 million estimate, and EPS beat expectations at –$0.21 versus –$0.32. The stock’s most recent one‑month return of –13.9% reflects a broader sell‑off in biotech, while the three‑month return of –1.2% indicates a mild rebound. Analyst sentiment has trended rising, with a 50 score and a 7‑point delta over the last 14 days. Market perception is also influenced by the company’s high valuation targets, which range from $4.00 to $10.00 per share. In sum, partnership progress, earnings surprises, and market sentiment are the primary levers moving the stock.
Does Recursion Pharmaceuticals (RXRX) pay a dividend?
Recursion Pharmaceuticals does not issue dividends. The company has chosen to retain all earnings to fund its research and development pipeline. Capital is instead allocated to clinical trials, partnership agreements, and expanding its AI platform. This reinvestment strategy aligns with the typical biotech model, where growth is prioritized over shareholder payouts. Consequently, investors seeking income will find RXRX unsuitable for that purpose.
What are the risks of buying RXRX?
Key risks include the inherent uncertainty of clinical development, where a majority of candidates remain in early phases. Partnership agreements, while advantageous, can introduce dilution through inducement awards. Regulatory approvals are uncertain, and any adverse findings could stall or halt a program. Market volatility in the biotech sector can amplify price swings, as evidenced by the -45.0% annual return. Additionally, the company’s negative earnings trend, with EPS ranging from –$0.53 to –$0.21, signals ongoing cash burn. These factors collectively elevate the risk profile for prospective investors.
How has RXRX stock performed this year?
Over the past twelve months, RXRX’s share price has declined by 45.0%, reflecting a cumulative loss of nearly half its value. The one‑month return stands at –13.9%, while the three‑month return is –1.2%, indicating a recent slight recovery from a steep drop. Six‑month performance mirrors the annual trend with a –7.2% return. Despite these declines, the stock remains above its 52‑week low of $2.77, trading at $3.23 today. The performance underscores the company's volatility and the market’s sensitivity to biotech earnings and partnership news.
What do analysts say about RXRX?
Analyst consensus on RXRX sets a mean target of $7.25, with a high of $10.00 and a low of $4.00. Eight analysts recommend a buy, five hold, and none sell, reflecting a predominantly bullish stance. The target range suggests optimism about the company’s partnership trajectory and pipeline expansion. However, the spread between high and low indicates some uncertainty regarding execution timelines. Overall, the analyst outlook aligns with the view that RXRX’s technology and collaborations could drive future upside.
How has Recursion Pharmaceuticals (RXRX) revenue trended over recent quarters?
Revenue has seen a dramatic acceleration, jumping from $4.55 million in Q4 2024 to $35.54 million in Q4 2025, an increase of 7.8×. The subsequent Q1 2026 revenue fell to $6.47 million, while Q2 2026 reported $8.0 million, indicating a sharp deceleration as the pipeline remains early‑stage. These swings illustrate the company's reliance on partnership milestones and clinical milestones for revenue generation. The volatility underscores the need for careful monitoring of future partnership developments and trial outcomes.
What were Recursion Pharmaceuticals (RXRX) earnings like in Q4 2025?
In Q4 2025, RXRX posted an EPS of –$0.21, beating the consensus estimate of –$0.32. Revenue for the quarter reached $36 million, surpassing the $25 million estimate. This performance contributed to a 3‑of‑4 quarter beat pattern over the last year. Despite the positive surprise, the company remains in the red, reflecting ongoing R&D costs. The earnings beat, however, provided a temporary lift to the stock price in the earnings release window.
What is the valuation of Recursion Pharmaceuticals (RXRX) and how should investors think about it?
At $3.23 per share, RXRX trades below its 52‑week low of $2.77, yet remains 79.6% above that low. Analyst targets range from $4.00 to $10.00, implying a potential upside of 24% to 207% from the current price. The company’s valuation is heavily influenced by its high‑growth pipeline and strategic partnerships rather than traditional earnings multiples, as its P/E is not yet meaningful. Investors should consider the valuation in the context of the company’s long‑term growth potential and the risk of continued negative earnings. A disciplined approach would involve weighing the upside from partnership milestones against the inherent biotech risk profile.
How strong is Recursion's competitive positioning in biotech?
Recursion’s moat is built on a proprietary AI‑driven drug discovery platform that integrates biological and chemical data at scale. Strategic collaborations with Bayer, Roche, and Genentech provide both credibility and potential commercialization pathways. The focus on rare diseases and oncology places the company in markets with high switching costs and limited competition. However, the company’s pipeline remains early‑stage, and many competitors also employ AI, which could erode the relative advantage. Nonetheless, the combination of technology, partnerships, and disease focus creates a robust competitive stance.
What are the primary catalysts for Recursion's future growth?
Primary catalysts include the Genentech milestone that could unlock a neuroscience target, the expansion of the oncology pipeline, and the ongoing development of rare disease candidates. Each milestone has the potential to generate new revenue streams and attract additional partnership capital. The company’s AI platform also enables rapid iteration, shortening the time from discovery to clinical trial. These catalysts, if realized, could significantly accelerate the company’s growth trajectory.
How does Recursion's partnership with Genentech impact its prospects?
The Genentech partnership provides an option to bring a neuroscience target into early discovery, potentially opening a high‑barrier therapeutic area. This collaboration could also bring additional funding and expertise, accelerating the development timeline. Successful execution would likely increase investor confidence and justify a higher valuation. However, the partnership also introduces potential dilution from future inducement awards, which could impact share count and earnings per share.
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