NTR·Nutrien Ltd.

Realized volatility (21d)

29.5% 46th pct

Below its peak

-40.2%

vs 200-day average

-1.3%

Up days (1y)

56%

Nutrien Ltd. is currently running 29.5% annualised volatility over the last 21 sessions. Measured against NTR's own 9 years of daily returns rather than a market-wide average, that is the 46th percentile — close to its own typical level, against a typical reading of 30.5%. The distinction matters because a number that looks calm for one stock is turbulent for another, and the absolute figure on its own tells you neither.

NTR is trading -40.2% below its running peak. Across 8 full years on file, its median worst-drawdown-in-a-year was -25.8%, and the deepest was -48.0% in 2020. The current drawdown is already deeper than this stock's typical annual low point, which puts it in the part of its range where past recoveries began — and where past declines also continued.

Price sits -1.3% from its 200-day moving average. Against every other day in its history, that gap ranks at the 47th percentile — close to the gap it normally carries. Over the past year NTR closed higher on 56% of sessions, and it is currently 2 sessions into a rising streak.

On October specifically: over 8 years of records, NTR finished the month higher 2 of 8 times, with a median return of -3.6% and an average of -2.6%. Its strongest month historically has been July at +4.0% on average, its weakest June at -3.0%. Seasonality is a weak signal on its own — a decade is a small sample and regimes change — but it is a real distribution rather than a rule of thumb.

Overnight risk is measurable too: NTR has opened more than 2% away from the prior close in 77 of 2,206 sessions (3.5% of the time), with the largest gaps running +11.1% and -3.7%. For anyone holding through an event, that rate is a better guide to overnight exposure than the intraday range.

All figures computed from 2,207 daily closes between 2018-01-02 and 2026-10-13, split-adjusted, recomputed daily. Percentiles are against NTR's own 9-year history, not a peer group or index.