PEN·Penumbra Inc.

Realized volatility (21d)

9.0% 4th pct

Below its peak

-12.5%

vs 200-day average

-2.3%

Up days (1y)

50%

Penumbra Inc. is currently running 9.0% annualised volatility over the last 21 sessions. Measured against PEN's own 11 years of daily returns rather than a market-wide average, that is the 4th percentile — unusually subdued by its own history, against a typical reading of 36.3%. The distinction matters because a number that looks calm for one stock is turbulent for another, and the absolute figure on its own tells you neither.

PEN is trading -12.5% below its running peak. Across 10 full years on file, its median worst-drawdown-in-a-year was -29.8%, and the deepest was -59.1% in 2022. The current pullback is therefore shallower than what this stock gives back in a typical year, which is context worth having before treating it as a dislocation.

Price sits -2.3% from its 200-day moving average. Against every other day in its history, that gap ranks at the 26th percentile — a narrower gap than it typically runs. Over the past year PEN closed higher on 50% of sessions, and it is currently 2 sessions into a rising streak.

On October specifically: over 11 years of records, PEN finished the month higher 5 of 11 times, with a median return of -7.4% and an average of +1.9%. Its strongest month historically has been November at +8.9% on average, its weakest May at -1.3%. Seasonality is a weak signal on its own — a decade is a small sample and regimes change — but it is a real distribution rather than a rule of thumb.

Overnight risk is measurable too: PEN has opened more than 2% away from the prior close in 135 of 2,780 sessions (4.9% of the time), with the largest gaps running +9.4% and -9.8%. For anyone holding through an event, that rate is a better guide to overnight exposure than the intraday range.

All figures computed from 2,781 daily closes between 2015-09-18 and 2026-10-09, split-adjusted, recomputed daily. Percentiles are against PEN's own 11-year history, not a peer group or index.