PEN·Penumbra Inc.

Realized volatility (21d)

8.2% 3rd pct

Below its peak

-13.1%

vs 200-day average

-3.0%

Up days (1y)

50%

Penumbra Inc. is currently running 8.2% annualised volatility over the last 21 sessions. Measured against PEN's own 11 years of daily returns rather than a market-wide average, that is the 3rd percentile — unusually subdued by its own history, against a typical reading of 36.3%. The distinction matters because a number that looks calm for one stock is turbulent for another, and the absolute figure on its own tells you neither.

PEN is trading -13.1% below its running peak. Across 10 full years on file, its median worst-drawdown-in-a-year was -29.8%, and the deepest was -59.1% in 2022. The current pullback is therefore shallower than what this stock gives back in a typical year, which is context worth having before treating it as a dislocation.

Price sits -3.0% from its 200-day moving average. Against every other day in its history, that gap ranks at the 24th percentile — a narrower gap than it typically runs. Over the past year PEN closed higher on 50% of sessions, and it is currently 2 sessions into a falling streak.

On October specifically: over 11 years of records, PEN finished the month higher 5 of 11 times, with a median return of -7.4% and an average of +1.9%. Its strongest month historically has been November at +8.9% on average, its weakest May at -1.3%. Seasonality is a weak signal on its own — a decade is a small sample and regimes change — but it is a real distribution rather than a rule of thumb.

Overnight risk is measurable too: PEN has opened more than 2% away from the prior close in 135 of 2,776 sessions (4.9% of the time), with the largest gaps running +9.4% and -9.8%. For anyone holding through an event, that rate is a better guide to overnight exposure than the intraday range.

All figures computed from 2,777 daily closes between 2015-09-18 and 2026-10-05, split-adjusted, recomputed daily. Percentiles are against PEN's own 11-year history, not a peer group or index.