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EXE·Expand Energy Corporation

$85.34
-1.97 (-2.26%)
Pre-Market
High
$85.50
Open
$85.11
Market Cap
19.71B
52W High
$126.63
Low
$85.11
P. Close
$85.34
P/E
7.09
52W Low
$83.25
Fwd P/E
10.52
DailyIQ Est.
$129.87
Inst. Own.
76.1%
Short Interest
4.86%
Days to Cover
3.9
Div. Yield
2.69%
Next Ex-Div
~Nov 13
NewEarnings release, scored · filed Oct 27, 2026tone -8.4 vs prior release · 72 lines scoredSee the breakdown
Technical Score (1D)
22
BEARISH
News Sentiment
40
BEARISH
On Nov 5, Expand Energy reported that its free cash flow had reached 12.2 % of its market value over the past year, a figure well above the S&P 500 median of 4.1 %. The same day the company’s stock had fallen 18.9 % during that period, while the broader market had gained 14.9 %. Analysts noted that the company’s revenue is heavily weighted toward natural gas sales, which accounted for $10.3 billion of its $12.2 billion fiscal 2025 revenue. This concentration in natural gas has raised concerns about future growth prospects and valuation. The high cash‑yield figure was cited as a signal that the business might be on sale or expected to shrink, contributing to the negative market reaction. The cash flow remains a key metric for shareholders, but the stock’s performance indicates investor skepticism about the company’s future growth prospects.
LOW TARGET
$92 +7.6%
2 analysts
MEAN TARGET
$123 +44.3%
15 analysts
HIGH TARGET
$156 +82.5%
18 analysts
PRICE RANGE
$92.00 - $156.00
SB / B / H / S / SS
10/17/6/1/1
DAILYIQ EST.
$129.87 (+51.9%)
Sector
Energy
Industry
Oil & Gas E&P
Exchange
NMS
Country
United States
Symbol
EXE
Description
Expand Energy Corporation is an independent energy producer focused on natural gas production within the United States. The company's strategy centers on acquiring, exploring, and developing oil and natural gas properties, including natural gas liquids. Its asset portfolio is concentrated in key shale formations, specifically the Marcellus Shale in Pennsylvania, the Marcellus and Utica Shales across Ohio and West Virginia, and the Haynesville and Bossier Shales located in Louisiana. Formerly known as Chesapeake Energy Corporation, the company rebranded to Expand Energy Corporation in October 2024. Headquartered in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, Expand Energy Corporation has a long-standing history, tracing its origins back to 1989.
Bought (1Y)
4,000 shares
$368K
Sold (1Y)
2,554 shares
$232K
Grose Sarah TinteraVP-Chief Accounting Officer
Tax Withholding204 shares2026-11-01
Brown Daniel EPresident and CEO
Award/Grant20,430 shares2026-10-26
Brown Daniel EPresident and CEO
Award/Grant20,431 shares2026-10-26
Brown Daniel EPresident and CEO
Award/Grant6,661 shares2026-10-26
Brown Daniel EPresident and CEO
Award/Grant58,742 shares2026-10-26
92/ 100
Strong bullish
Overall: Bullish
✓Revenue growing year over year
✓Positive net margin
✓Positive operating cash flow
Net Margin
15.0%
Revenue CAGR
2.6%
Current Ratio
1.01x
Debt / Equity
0.27x
Return on Equity
9.8%
Earnings Summary
In Q3 2026, the company reported EPS of $1.46 versus an estimate of $1.28, and revenue of $3.286 billion against an estimate of $2.634 billion, marking a 24.5% year‑over‑year revenue increase and a 24.5% rise from the prior quarter; Q2 2026 EPS of $1.33 beat the $1.12 estimate, while revenue rose 58.4% to $1.83 billion. Compared to Q4 2025, where EPS was $2.00 versus an estimate of $1.90 and revenue was $2.305 billion versus an estimate of $2.724 billion, the recent quarters show a reversal in revenue growth and a continued EPS beat, though the company’s revenue trajectory has been volatile. Historically, Expand Energy has demonstrated strong earnings beats in the last three quarters, with revenue growth fluctuating due to commodity price swings, yet the company has maintained a pattern of exceeding EPS estimates, reflecting disciplined cost management and marketing margin improvements. Recent news highlights include the announcement of a $305 million share repurchase program, a $3 billion capital investment plan for 2026, and a new CEO appointment, all signaling a shift toward integrated gas operations and capital returns; the company also reported a $0.575 per share dividend, underscoring its commitment to shareholder value.

EPS

EstBeatMiss
$0.22$0.75$1.28$1.81$2.34Q4'24Q4'25Q2'26Q3'26Q4'26
QtrEstActual+/−
Q4'26$2.10 - -
Q3'26$1.28$1.46+14.1%
Q2'26$1.12$1.33+19.1%
Q4'25$1.90$2.00+5.1%
Q4'24$0.47$0.55+17.5%

Revenue

EstBeatMiss
$1.3B$1.9B$2.4B$3.0B$3.5BQ4'24Q4'25Q2'26Q3'26Q4'26
QtrEstActual+/−
Q4'26$3.0B - -
Q3'26$2.6B$3.3B+24.7%
Q2'26$2.8B$1.8B-35.6%
Q4'25$2.7B$2.3B-15.4%
Q4'24 - $1.6B -

Market Data

EXE Stock Snapshot

BEARISH22/100
$85.50+$0.16 (0.2%)
Market cap
19.71B
P/E ratio
7.1
Day range
$85.11 – $85.50
News sentiment
40/100 · Bearish
Analyst target
$123.33 (+44.2%)
Consensus
Buy · 35 analysts
52-week range+2.7% off low · -32.5% from high
$83.25$126.63
Price $85.50 DailyIQ Est. $129.87

Momentum has rolled over on Expand Energy Corporation, which is what drives the bearish read. Institutional coverage is thorough here, so shifts in analyst expectations show up in price quickly.

Reverse DCF

What growth is priced into EXE?

CHEAP

At today's price, Expand Energy Corporation needs to grow free cash flow about -3.0% a year for 3 years, slowing to a long-run rate by year 10, to justify its valuation at a 6.49% cost of capital. Over the last five years its revenue has trended at 21.5% a year, so the market is asking for 24.6 percentage points below its own delivered rate. On that basis EXE looks priced below what its own growth record supports.

Implied FCF growth
-3.0%
Growth trend
21.5%
Growth gap
-24.6 pts
Verdict
CHEAP
Discount rate (WACC)
6.49%
Beta
0.54

Behaviour On Record

What EXE's own history says about today's numbers

Realized volatility (21d)
22.8% 19th pct
Below its peak
-30.0%
vs 200-day average
-9.7%
Up days (1y)
49%

Expand Energy Corporation is currently running 22.8% annualised volatility over the last 21 sessions. Measured against EXE's own 6 years of daily returns rather than a market-wide average, that is the 19th percentile — unusually subdued by its own history, against a typical reading of 31.9%.

EXE is trading -30.0% below its running peak. Across 6 full years on file, its median worst-drawdown-in-a-year was -24.3%, and the deepest was -27.5% in 2022. The current drawdown is already deeper than this stock's typical annual low point, which puts it in the part of its range where past recoveries began, and where past declines also continued.

Price sits -9.7% from its 200-day moving average. Against every other day in its history, that gap ranks at the 15th percentile — a narrower gap than it typically runs. Over the past year EXE closed higher on 49% of sessions, and it is currently 1 session into a falling streak.

On November specifically: over 5 years of records, EXE finished the month higher 3 of 5 times, with a median return of +0.3% and an average of +2.8%. Its strongest month historically has been May at +4.9% on average, its weakest June at -4.7%.

Overnight risk is measurable too: EXE has opened more than 2% away from the prior close in 100 of 1,439 sessions (6.9% of the time), with the largest gaps running +6.6% and -5.8%.

Across the last 3 dated reports on file, EXE moved an average of 2.5% in the session after earnings, closing higher 1 of those 3 times, with a median move of -2.2% and a largest of -2.8%.

All figures computed from 1,440 daily closes between 2021-02-10 and 2026-11-04, split-adjusted, recomputed daily. Percentiles are against EXE's own 6-year history, not a peer group or index.

Sector Rotation

Is money rotating into or out of EXE's sector?

Expand Energy Corporation sits in the Energy sector, currently ranked 9th of 12 GICS sectors by relative-strength rotation score (lagging).

Sector rank
#9 of 12
Sector state
Lagging
Sector rotation score
9

Options Market

What is the options market pricing for EXE?

CallsPuts

For Expand Energy Corporation's nearest expiry (2027-01-15, 70 days out), open interest is call-heavy, a bullish tilt (put/call ratio of 0.00).

Put/call ratio (2027-01-15)
0.00
Total open interest
4

Analyst Consensus Estimates

What do analysts expect EXE to earn?

Analysts expect Expand Energy Corporation to earn $8.71 per share in the fiscal year ending Dec 2026 and $12.13 in the fiscal year ending Dec 2029, from 2 estimates. These are analyst forecasts, not company guidance, and later years rest on fewer analysts.

Quarter endingEPS estimateEPS rangeEPS analystsRevenue estimateRevenue analysts
Dec 2026$2.06$1.81 to $2.4813$2.29B2
Mar 2027$2.59$1.83 to $3.138$2.53B2
Jun 2027$1.38$1.07 to $1.945--
Sep 2027$1.46$0.98 to $1.905--
Fiscal year endingEPS estimateEPS rangeEPS analystsRevenue estimateRevenue analysts
Dec 2026$8.71$7.85 to $9.7315$9.52B3
Dec 2027$8.09$6.23 to $9.9715$10.18B3
Dec 2028$10.64$9.78 to $11.645~$13.70B-
Dec 2029$12.13$11.72 to $12.532~$15.62B-

Revenue marked ~ is our calculation from the EPS estimate, not analyst consensus.

Analyst Rating Changes

Are analysts turning bullish or bearish on EXE?

UBS most recently reiterated its rating on Expand Energy Corporation to Buy on Oct 29, 2026 with a price target of $117 (from $120). Over the last 90 days, coverage has run 0 upgrades against 1 downgrade, a net bearish lean.

Latest action
UBS: Buy
90-day upgrades
0
90-day downgrades
1
Net rating momentum
-1
DateFirmActionRatingPrice target
Oct 29, 2026UBSMaintainedBuy$120 → $117
Oct 29, 2026Morgan StanleyMaintainedOverweight$124 → $123
Oct 29, 2026Truist SecuritiesMaintainedBuy$120 → $122
Oct 15, 2026UBSMaintainedBuy$122 → $120
Oct 15, 2026Morgan StanleyMaintainedOverweight$129 → $124
Oct 6, 2026MizuhoMaintainedOutperform$145 → $138
Oct 5, 2026Raymond JamesMaintainedStrong Buy$147 → $141
Oct 5, 2026BernsteinMaintainedOutperform$160 → $127
Oct 5, 2026Truist SecuritiesMaintainedBuy$121 → $120
Oct 2, 2026UBSMaintainedBuy$129 → $122
Oct 2, 2026JefferiesMaintainedBuy$143 → $136
Sep 14, 2026UBSMaintainedBuy$124 → $129

Earnings Release, Scored

What did Expand Energy Corporation's latest earnings release say?

Filed Oct 27, 2026 · SEC Form 8-K, Exhibit 99

Tone48.8/ 100-8.4 vs prior release
Hedging words1.68per 100 words+0.50 vs prior release
Tone, last 3 releasesScale 43–69

Most important lines

  1. 1

    Additional detail on the Company’s 2026 third quarter financial and operational results, along with non-GAAP measures that adjust for items typically excluded by securities analysts, are available on the Company’s website.

    New this quarter
  2. 2

    other factors that are described under Risk Factors in Item 1A of our 2025 Form 10-K, as updated by our Form 10-Qs and other filings with the SEC.

    New this quarter
  3. 3

    During the third quarter, the Company repurchased $305 million of common stock and has $1 billion of capacity for additional repurchases under its previously announced expanded authorization.

    New this quarter

Peers & ETF holders

EXE peers & ETF holders

News & sentiment

What is the news saying about EXE?

EXE fell 3.1% over the month to Nov 6. News tone held between 39 and 92 from Oct 6 to Oct 22, then dropped to 32 on Oct 26.

Daily close and news tone, Oct 6 to Nov 6
$85$90$95Oct 6: tone 47Oct 7Oct 8: tone 64Oct 9Oct 12: tone 42Oct 13: tone 39Oct 14: tone 42Oct 15: tone 62Oct 16Oct 19: tone 54Oct 20: tone 64Oct 21Oct 22: tone 92Oct 23Oct 26: tone 32Oct 27: tone 72Oct 28: tone 59Oct 29: tone 66Oct 30: tone 31Nov 2Nov 3Nov 4: tone 42Nov 5Nov 6: tone 32Oct 6News toneNov 6123
  1. Oct 16 +3.3%
  2. Oct 28 -2.8%same day: Expand Energy Q3 Adjusted Earnings Jump 44% as Gas Output Rises
  3. Nov 4 -2.9%same day: Expand Energy (NASDAQ:EXE): A Decent Value Stock Worth Investigating

Technical analysis

How strong is EXE's momentum right now?

On the daily chart EXE ranks at the 22nd percentile for momentum against 1,060 stocks and ETFs, a bearish reading.

Momentum rank by timeframe0 = weakest, 100 = strongest
See what drives the rankThe inputs behind each timeframe's momentum rank, plus RSI, stochastics, Bollinger Bands and moving averages. Free with an account.

Institutional ownership

Are big funds buying or selling EXE?

104 of the 195 tracked managers added to EXE in their latest 13F and 88 trimmed. Together they own 76.1% of the company, worth $15.9B. BlackRock and Vanguard Capital Management alone hold 15.2%.

104adding88trimming3unchanged
Largest holders by stake, latest 13FBar = share of EXE
  1. $1.8B positionAdded 4.6% last quarter
  2. $1.4B positionAdded 0.5% last quarter
  3. $1.4B positionAdded 7.8% last quarter
  4. $1.1B positionAdded 4.2% last quarter
  5. $611.7M positionAdded 1.7% last quarter
  6. $605.8M positionTrimmed 2.3% last quarter
  7. $552.7M positionAdded 23.2% last quarter
  8. $492.1M positionAdded 13.4% last quarter
  9. $491.1M positionAdded 39.7% last quarter
  10. $477.6M positionUnchanged last quarter
Full holdings history

Congressional trading

Is Congress trading EXE?

3 members of Congress disclosed 7 EXE trades between Oct 23, 2024 and Feb 17, 2026: 4 buys and 3 sells, about $56.0K in estimated value.

BuysSellsOctJan ’25AprJulOctJan ’26
BuySell$1K–$15K$15K–$50K$50K–$100K$100K–$250K

What stands out

Click one to highlight its trades in the chart

Discover more

How has EXE done against its peers?

Over the six months to Nov 6, EXE returned −11.7%. Of the 15 related stocks and ETFs, 13 did better, led by MPC at +54.1%.

Change since May 6, through Nov 6
−50%0%+50%+100%May 6JunJulAugSepOctNov 6MPC +54.1%EXE −11.7%OIH −19.7%