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DailyIQ
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Sector:Consumer DefensiveAll sectors
Last updated1 minute ago

STZ·Constellation Brands, Inc.

$144.56
-0.93 (-0.64%)
Pre-Market
High
$143.70
Open
$142.99
Market Cap
24.62B
52W High
$168.66
Low
$142.99
P. Close
$144.56
P/E
12.79
52W Low
$107.40
Fwd P/E
11.96
DailyIQ Est.
$156.54
Inst. Own.
74.1%
Short Interest
4.96%
Days to Cover
2.6
Div. Yield
2.86%
Next Ex-Div
~Jan 30
Div. Growth
10+ yrs
NewEarnings release, scored · filed Oct 6, 2026Guidance raised · tone +3.8 vs prior release · 53 lines scoredSee the breakdown
Technical Score (1D)
30
BEARISH
News Sentiment
78
BULLISH
On Nov 5, Bank of America upgraded Constellation Brands after the company posted stronger‑than‑expected second‑quarter fiscal 2027 earnings, a move that helped the stock rally nearly 25 % over the month following the upgrade. The same day, analysts noted that the stock had risen 22.9 % since the last earnings report, a figure that was reported without detailed financial metrics or guidance. Earlier that month, Constellation Brands reported a 4.3 % decline in revenue for the twelve months ended August 31 , 2026, but highlighted that its Pacifico and Victoria beer brands were growing at about 20 % each in fiscal 2027, with Pacifico now a top‑10 beer brand. Management attributed this growth to increased marketing spend that expanded distribution and dollar share in beverage alcohol. The combination of the upgrade, the stock’s recent rally, and the brand‑specific growth signals renewed investor confidence in the company’s valuation and growth prospects.
LOW TARGET
$99 -31.5%
2 analysts
MEAN TARGET
$151 +4.6%
17 analysts
HIGH TARGET
$209 +44.6%
11 analysts
PRICE RANGE
$99.00 - $209.00
SB / B / H / S / SS
3/15/9/2/1
DAILYIQ EST.
$156.54 (+8.3%)
Sector
Consumer Defensive
Industry
Beverages - Brewers
Exchange
NYQ
Country
United States
Website
cbrands.com
Symbol
STZ
Description
Constellation Brands is a global beverage alcohol company that cultivates a diverse portfolio of leading beer, wine, and spirits brands. Its core business centers on the production, import, marketing, and sales of these beverages across the United States, Canada, Mexico, New Zealand, and Italy. The company's prominent beer brands include Corona and Modelo, while its wine offerings feature labels such as Kim Crawford and Robert Mondavi Winery. Constellation Brands also boasts a spirits portfolio with brands like SVEDKA and High West. Distribution channels encompass wholesale distributors, retailers, on-premise establishments, and government agencies, solidifying its market reach.
Bought (1Y)
0 shares
$0
Sold (1Y)
326 shares
$44K
Baldwin Christopher J-
Award/Grant1,400 shares2026-07-22
Clark Christy-
Award/Grant1,400 shares2026-07-22
Daniels Jennifer-
Award/Grant1,400 shares2026-07-22
Flatley Edith Morgan-
Award/Grant1,400 shares2026-07-22
GILES WILLIAM T-
Award/Grant1,400 shares2026-07-22
View full insider trading history →
65/ 100
Neutral / mixed
Overall: Neutral
✕Revenue declining year over year
✓Positive net margin
✓Positive operating cash flow
Gross Margin
51.6%
Net Margin
18.5%
Revenue CAGR
4.0%
Current Ratio
1.08x
Debt / Equity
1.27x
Return on Equity
20.9%
View full financials →
Earnings Summary
In the most recent fiscal year, the company posted Q3 2026 revenue of $2.22 billion, up from $1.84 billion in Q3 2025, and Q4 2026 revenue of $1.92 billion versus $2.22 billion in Q4 2025, indicating a modest revenue decline in the fourth quarter but a strong rebound in the third quarter; EPS in Q3 2026 rose to $3.06 from $1.68 in Q3 2025, while Q4 2026 EPS of $1.90 was slightly below the $2.63 estimate, reflecting a mixed earnings trajectory. Over the last four quarters, Constellation has consistently beat earnings estimates in three of the four periods, with Q1 2025 EPS of $2.63 versus a $2.27 estimate and Q3 2025 EPS of $3.63 versus a $3.41 estimate, though Q4 2025 EPS of $3.06 fell short of the $2.63 estimate. Historically, the company has maintained a positive YoY revenue growth trend, with Q3 2026 revenue up 20.5% YoY, while EPS growth has been more volatile, reflecting margin pressures and strategic investments. Recent news highlights a Bank of America upgrade on November 5, 2025, following stronger‑than‑expected Q2 2027 earnings, and a broader narrative that a Democratic majority in Congress could ease immigration restrictions, potentially lifting beer demand among Hispanic consumers who represent roughly 40% of U.S. beer sales; this development may reduce downside risk to volumes.

EPS

EstBeatMiss
$1.38$2.04$2.71$3.38$4.05Q3'25Q4'25Q3'26Q4'26Q2'27Q3'27
QtrEstActual+/−
Q3'27$2.75 - -
Q2'27$3.55$3.74+5.5%
Q4'26$1.71$1.90+10.9%
Q3'26$1.68$3.06+81.6%
Q4'25$2.63$3.06+16.2%
Q3'25$3.41$3.63+6.5%

Revenue

EstBeatMiss
$1.7B$2.0B$2.2B$2.5B$2.8BQ3'25Q4'25Q3'26Q4'26Q2'27Q3'27
QtrEstActual+/−
Q3'27$2.2B - -
Q2'27$2.6B$2.6B+2.5%
Q4'26$1.9B$1.9B+2.3%
Q3'26$1.8B$2.2B+20.5%
Q4'25 - $2.2B -
Q3'25 - $2.5B -
Full Earnings BreakdownEstimates, actuals, guidance, and historical context
→

Market Data

STZ Stock Snapshot

BEARISH30/100
$143.05−$0.65 (0.5%)
Market cap
24.62B
P/E ratio
12.8
Day range
$142.99 – $143.70
News sentiment
78/100 · Bullish
Analyst target
$151.17 (+5.7%)
Consensus
Buy · 30 analysts
52-week range+33.2% off low · -15.2% from high
$107.40$168.66
Price $143.05 DailyIQ Est. $156.54

Price action on STZ is defensive - rallies are being sold rather than extended. Institutional coverage is thorough here, so shifts in analyst expectations show up in price quickly.

Reverse DCF

What growth is priced into STZ?

CHEAP

At today's price, Constellation Brands, Inc. needs to grow free cash flow about -4.8% a year for 3 years, slowing to a long-run rate by year 10, to justify its valuation at a 6.00% cost of capital. Over the last five years its revenue has trended at 1.5% a year, so the market is asking for 6.3 percentage points below its own delivered rate. On that basis STZ looks priced below what its own growth record supports.

Implied FCF growth
-4.8%
Growth trend
1.5%
Growth gap
-6.3 pts
Verdict
CHEAP
Discount rate (WACC)
6.00%
Beta
0.49

Behaviour On Record

What STZ's own history says about today's numbers

Realized volatility (21d)
36.7% 94th pct
Below its peak
-46.1%
vs 200-day average
+4.0%
Up days (1y)
47%

Constellation Brands, Inc. is currently running 36.7% annualised volatility over the last 21 sessions. Measured against STZ's own 13 years of daily returns rather than a market-wide average, that is the 94th percentile — an extreme by its own standards, against a typical reading of 21.4%.

STZ is trading -46.1% below its running peak. Across 13 full years on file, its median worst-drawdown-in-a-year was -16.6%, and the deepest was -49.3% in 2020. The current drawdown is already deeper than this stock's typical annual low point, which puts it in the part of its range where past recoveries began, and where past declines also continued.

Price sits +4.0% from its 200-day moving average. Against every other day in its history, that gap ranks at the 55th percentile — close to the gap it normally carries. Over the past year STZ closed higher on 47% of sessions, and it is currently 2 sessions into a rising streak.

On November specifically: over 13 years of records, STZ finished the month higher 10 of 13 times, with a median return of +3.5% and an average of +3.0%. Its strongest month historically has been April at +4.2% on average, its weakest September at -2.5%.

Overnight risk is measurable too: STZ has opened more than 2% away from the prior close in 74 of 3,268 sessions (2.3% of the time), with the largest gaps running +4.9% and -6.4%.

Across the last 3 dated reports on file, STZ moved an average of 6.3% in the session after earnings, closing higher 3 of those 3 times, with a median move of +6.4% and a largest of +9.1%.

All figures computed from 3,269 daily closes between 2013-11-06 and 2026-11-05, split-adjusted, recomputed daily. Percentiles are against STZ's own 13-year history, not a peer group or index.

Sector Rotation

Is money rotating into or out of STZ's sector?

Constellation Brands, Inc. sits in the Consumer Staples sector, currently ranked 2nd of 12 GICS sectors by relative-strength rotation score (leading).

Sector rank
#2 of 12
Sector state
Leading
Sector rotation score
82

Analyst Consensus Estimates

What do analysts expect STZ to earn?

Analysts expect Constellation Brands, Inc. to earn $11.82 per share in the fiscal year ending Feb 2027 and $12.69 in the fiscal year ending Feb 2029, from 4 estimates. These are analyst forecasts, not company guidance, and later years rest on fewer analysts.

Quarter endingEPS estimateEPS rangeEPS analystsRevenue estimateRevenue analysts
Nov 2026$2.73$2.52 to $2.9719$2.19B16
Feb 2027$1.93$1.62 to $2.1019$1.87B16
May 2027$3.32$3.02 to $3.505~$2.55B-
Aug 2027$3.85$3.78 to $3.955--
Nov 2027$2.90$2.76 to $3.195~$2.23B-
Fiscal year endingEPS estimateEPS rangeEPS analystsRevenue estimateRevenue analysts
Feb 2027$11.82$11.29 to $12.1224$9.12B22
Feb 2028$12.09$10.51 to $12.9523$9.26B21
Feb 2029$12.69$12.24 to $13.234~$9.76B-

Revenue marked ~ is our calculation from the EPS estimate, not analyst consensus.

Analyst Rating Changes

Are analysts turning bullish or bearish on STZ?

JP Morgan most recently reiterated its rating on Constellation Brands, Inc. to Neutral on Oct 8, 2026 with a price target of $136 (from $133). Over the last 90 days, coverage has run 1 upgrade against 1 downgrade, a net mixed lean.

Latest action
JP Morgan: Neutral
90-day upgrades
1
90-day downgrades
1
Net rating momentum
0
DateFirmActionRatingPrice target
Oct 8, 2026JP MorganMaintainedNeutral$133 → $136
Oct 8, 2026Freedom BrokerUpgradeHold → Buy$173 → $158
Oct 8, 2026UBSMaintainedBuy$145 → $144
Oct 8, 2026Piper SandlerMaintainedNeutral$161 → $125
Oct 8, 2026Deutsche BankMaintainedHold$136 → $127
Oct 8, 2026RBC CapitalMaintainedOutperform$185 → $182
Oct 8, 2026NeedhamMaintainedBuy$185 → $150
Oct 8, 2026Morgan StanleyMaintainedEqual-Weight$158 → $145
Oct 8, 2026HSBCDowngradeBuy → Hold$192 → $135
Oct 5, 2026Wells FargoMaintainedOverweight$170 → $140
Oct 2, 2026RBC CapitalReiteratedOutperform$185
Sep 25, 2026JP MorganMaintainedNeutral$165 → $133

Earnings Release, Scored

What did Constellation Brands, Inc.'s latest earnings release say?

Filed Oct 6, 2026 · SEC Form 8-K, Exhibit 99

Guidance raised
Tone71.7/ 100+3.8 vs prior release
Hedging words0.44per 100 words-0.46 vs prior release
Tone, last 2 releasesScale 50–77

Most important lines

  1. 1

    Operating margin decreased 160 bps to 39.0% as lower tariff expenses and favorable fixed cost absorption were more than offset by increased marketing investment and other SG&A spend.

    New this quarter
  2. 2

    Generates year-to-date operating cash flow of $1.5 billion and free cash flow of $1.1 billion, a decrease of 1% and an increase of 4%, respectively

    New this quarterNegative tone
  3. 3

    Operating margin improved to 3.8% driven by favorability in COGS from recoveries of U.S. tariffs and savings across marketing and other SG&A from our optimization and restructuring initiatives.

    New this quarter

Scores describe the release's wording. They are not a forecast.

Read all 53 scored lines →

Peers & ETF holders

STZ peers & ETF holders

Beverages - BrewersMarket cap · today

Top ETF holdersWeight

News & sentiment

What is the news saying about STZ?

STZ rose 27.4% over the month to Nov 5. News tone held between 16 and 94 from Oct 5 to Oct 22, then dropped to 30 on Oct 23.

Daily close and news tone, Oct 5 to Nov 5
$120$140Oct 5: tone 34Oct 6: tone 57Oct 7: tone 55Oct 8: tone 50Oct 9: tone 68Oct 12: tone 68Oct 13Oct 14Oct 15Oct 16: tone 16Oct 19Oct 20: tone 65Oct 21: tone 57Oct 22: tone 94Oct 23: tone 30Oct 26Oct 27: tone 61Oct 28: tone 37Oct 29: tone 45Oct 30: tone 64Nov 2: tone 75Nov 3Nov 4: tone 71Nov 5: tone 75Oct 5News toneNov 5123
  1. Oct 7 +6.4%same day: Constellation Maintains Full-Year Profit Outlook, Posts Surprise Fiscal Second-Quarter Earnings Growth
  2. Oct 22 +5.3%
  3. Nov 4 +5.3%same day: Constellation Brands Could See Immigration Headwinds Ease Under Democratic Congress, BofA Says
Latest stories naming Constellation Brands

Technical analysis

How strong is STZ's momentum right now?

On the daily chart STZ ranks at the 30th percentile for momentum against 1,060 stocks and ETFs, a bearish reading.

Momentum rank by timeframe0 = weakest, 100 = strongest
See what drives the rankThe inputs behind each timeframe's momentum rank, plus RSI, stochastics, Bollinger Bands and moving averages. Free with an account.

Institutional ownership

Are big funds buying or selling STZ?

93 of the 198 tracked managers added to STZ in their latest 13F and 102 trimmed. Together they own 74.1% of the company, worth $17.6B. BlackRock and Capital World Investors alone hold 13.2%.

93adding102trimming3unchanged
Largest holders by stake, latest 13FBar = share of STZ
  1. 1BlackRock, Inc.6.71%
    $1.6B positionAdded 3.8% last quarter
  2. 2Capital World Investors6.51%
    $1.6B positionTrimmed 8.2% last quarter
  3. 3Vanguard Capital Management LLC5.43%
    $1.3B positionAdded 2.9% last quarter
  4. 4Vanguard Portfolio Management LLC4.55%
    $1.1B positionAdded 4.3% last quarter
  5. 5State Street Corp3.94%
    $944.3M positionTrimmed 3.4% last quarter
  6. 6FMR LLC (Fidelity)2.67%
    $639.9M positionTrimmed 10.3% last quarter
  7. 7Grantham, Mayo, Van Otterloo & Co. LLC (GMO)2.32%
    $556.1M positionTrimmed 0.7% last quarter
  8. 8Geode Capital Management, LLC2.22%
    $529.3M positionAdded 0.3% last quarter
  9. 9Wellington Management Group LLP2.22%
    $531.0M positionTrimmed 42.4% last quarter
  10. 10Ameriprise Financial Inc2.01%
    $481.1M positionAdded 1.5% last quarter
Full holdings history

Congressional trading

Is Congress trading STZ?

8 members of Congress disclosed 16 STZ trades between Jun 18, 2018 and May 15, 2026: 9 buys and 7 sells, about $460.0K in estimated value.

BuysSells2020202220242026
BuySell$1K–$15K$15K–$50K$50K–$100K$100K–$250K

What stands out

Click one to highlight its trades in the chart
Full trading history

Discover more

How has STZ done against its peers?

Over the six months to Nov 5, STZ returned −3.5%. Of the 15 related stocks and ETFs, 13 did better, led by KDP at +28.3%.

Change since May 5, through Nov 5
−40%−20%0%+20%+40%May 5JunJulAugSepOctNov 5KDP +28.3%STZ −3.5%PEP −7.7%