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Sector:Consumer DefensiveAll sectors
Last updatedjust now

STZ·Constellation Brands, Inc.

$118.97
-3.48 (-2.84%)
After Hours
High
$122.40
Open
$121.54
Market Cap
15.94B
52W High
$168.66
Low
$118.91
P. Close
$118.97
P/E
8.74
52W Low
$120.25
Fwd P/E
9.91
DailyIQ Est.
$173.23
Inst. Ownership
63.5%
Short Interest
6.10%
Days to Cover
4.6
Technical Score (1D)
9
SELL
News Sentiment
65
BULLISH
TD Cowen’s latest revision of Constellation Brands’ valuation—cutting the price target from $174 to $150 while keeping a buy rating—signals a more conservative view of the brewer’s near‑term upside, likely reflecting concerns over margin pressure and commodity pricing. The downgrade comes just days after the company redeemed its $600 million 4.350 % senior notes due 2027, a move that trims long‑term debt and interest expense, improves leverage, and frees cash that management says could be deployed for acquisitions or shareholder returns. The early debt repayment therefore offsets some of the valuation tightening by enhancing financial flexibility, but the market is still weighing whether the freed capital will translate into higher earnings or simply support a more aggressive capital‑allocation strategy. Constellation’s recent presentation at the Barclays Global Consumer Staples Conference reiterated its focus on premium beer and wine brands, continued marketing investment, and disciplined capital allocation, underscoring a steady, incremental growth outlook rather than a dramatic pivot. Management’s warning of modest gross‑profit margin pressure in the second half of the year—driven by rising commodity costs and tighter pricing power—adds a potential downside to the earnings profile that could temper the upside implied by the debt‑free cash. The company’s full‑year outlook remains unchanged, with $600 million in supply‑chain savings highlighted, but the combination of margin headwinds and a more conservative valuation suggests that the next 1–10 trading days will see the stock trading within a tighter range as investors digest the balance‑sheet improvement against the backdrop of a margin‑driven operating model. Watch for the Q2 fiscal 2027 earnings release on October 6, 2026, for updated guidance on revenue growth, margin performance, and any new capital‑allocation initiatives that could confirm or refute the current market sentiment.
Earnings Summary
Constellation Brands is a global beverage alcohol company that cultivates a diverse portfolio of leading beer, wine, and spirits brands, with core operations spanning production, import, marketing, and sales across the United States, Canada, Mexico, New Zealand, and Italy. Operating within the consumer defensive sector and the beverages‑brewers industry, the company relies heavily on flagship beer brands such as Corona and Modelo, alongside wine and spirits offerings. In the most recent fiscal quarters, Constellation delivered strong revenue growth, with Q3 2025 revenue at $2.481 billion and Q4 2025 at $2.222 billion, both up from the prior year’s $2.164 billion and $2.214 billion respectively. EPS trends were mixed: Q3 2025 EPS of $3.63 beat the $3.408 estimate, while Q4 2025 EPS of $3.06 exceeded the $2.633 estimate, indicating consistent earnings beats in the last two quarters despite a slight decline in Q2 2025 EPS relative to its $3.295 estimate. Historically, the company has maintained year‑over‑year revenue growth, with Q3 2026 revenue at $2.222 billion versus a $1.844 billion estimate, and Q4 2026 revenue at $1.920 billion against a $1.878 billion estimate, underscoring a pattern of revenue resilience even when EPS guidance is modest. Recent news highlights Constellation’s sharpened beer playbook, emphasizing brand‑specific marketing and supply‑chain savings of $600 million to support margins, while acknowledging potential second‑half margin pressure from seasonal demand swings and inflationary headwinds. This strategic focus on on‑premise sales aligns with the company’s recent revenue trajectory and suggests that marketing spend effectiveness will be a key determinant of future performance. Investors should watch the upcoming Q2 2027 earnings release for confirmation of the supply‑chain savings impact, margin trajectory, and any adjustments to the marketing strategy, as these factors will likely influence the company’s ability to sustain revenue growth and earnings beats in the near term.

EPS

EstBeatMiss
$1.39$2.03$2.66$3.29$3.92Q2'25Q3'25Q4'25Q3'26Q4'26Q2'27
QtrEstActual+/−
Q2'27$3.60 - -
Q4'26$1.71$1.90+10.9%
Q3'26$1.68$3.06+81.6%
Q4'25$2.63$3.06+16.2%
Q3'25$3.41$3.63+6.5%
Q2'25$3.29$3.22-2.3%

Revenue

EstBeatMiss
$1.7B$2.0B$2.2B$2.4B$2.7BQ2'25Q3'25Q4'25Q3'26Q4'26Q2'27
QtrEstActual+/−
Q2'27$2.6B - -
Q4'26$1.9B$1.9B+2.3%
Q3'26$1.8B$2.2B+20.5%
Q4'25 - $2.2B -
Q3'25 - $2.5B -
Q2'25 - $2.5B -
Full Earnings BreakdownEstimates, actuals, guidance, and historical context
→

Market Data

STZ Stock Snapshot

SELL9/100
$118.99+$0.02 (0.0%)
Market cap
15.94B
P/E ratio
8.7
Day range
$118.91 – $122.40
News sentiment
65/100 · Bullish
Analyst target
$168.65 (+41.7%)
Consensus
Buy · 30 analysts
52-week range-1.0% off low · -29.4% from high
$120.25$168.66
Price $118.99 DailyIQ Est. $173.23

Price action on STZ is defensive - rallies are being sold rather than extended. Institutional coverage is thorough here, so shifts in analyst expectations show up in price quickly.

Reverse DCF

What growth is priced into STZ?

CHEAP

At today's price, Constellation Brands, Inc. needs to grow free cash flow about -12.5% a year for the next 10 years to justify its valuation at a 6.00% cost of capital. Over its actual history it has compounded free cash flow at 11.8% a year, so the market is asking for 24.4 percentage points below its own delivered rate. On that basis STZ looks priced below what its own growth record supports.

Implied FCF growth
-12.5%
Historical FCF CAGR
11.8%
Growth gap
-24.4 pts
Verdict
CHEAP
Discount rate (WACC)
6.00%
Beta
0.50

Behaviour On Record

What STZ's own history says about today's numbers

Realized volatility (21d)
27.0% 76th pct
Below its peak
-54.9%
vs 200-day average
-15.0%
Up days (1y)
47%

Constellation Brands, Inc. is currently running 27.0% annualised volatility over the last 21 sessions. Measured against STZ's own 13 years of daily returns rather than a market-wide average, that is the 76th percentile — elevated for this stock, against a typical reading of 21.3%. The distinction matters because a number that looks calm for one stock is turbulent for another, and the absolute figure on its own tells you neither.

STZ is trading -54.9% below its running peak. Across 12 full years on file, its median worst-drawdown-in-a-year was -16.3%, and the deepest was -49.3% in 2020. The current drawdown is already deeper than this stock's typical annual low point, which puts it in the part of its range where past recoveries began — and where past declines also continued.

Price sits -15.0% from its 200-day moving average. Against every other day in its history, that gap ranks at the 9th percentile — a narrower gap than it typically runs. Over the past year STZ closed higher on 47% of sessions, and it is currently 2 sessions into a falling streak.

On September specifically: over 13 years of records, STZ finished the month higher 4 of 13 times, with a median return of -1.4% and an average of -1.9%. Its strongest month historically has been April at +4.2% on average, its weakest September at -1.9%. Seasonality is a weak signal on its own — a decade is a small sample and regimes change — but it is a real distribution rather than a rule of thumb.

Overnight risk is measurable too: STZ has opened more than 2% away from the prior close in 74 of 3,267 sessions (2.3% of the time), with the largest gaps running +4.9% and -6.4%. For anyone holding through an event, that rate is a better guide to overnight exposure than the intraday range.

All figures computed from 3,268 daily closes between 2013-09-18 and 2026-09-16, split-adjusted, recomputed daily. Percentiles are against STZ's own 13-year history, not a peer group or index.

Sector Rotation

Is money rotating into or out of STZ's sector?

Constellation Brands, Inc. sits in the Consumer Staples sector, currently ranked 6th of 11 GICS sectors by relative-strength rotation score (improving).

Sector rank
#6 of 11
Sector state
Improving
Sector rotation score
60

Options Market

What is the options market pricing for STZ?

CallsPuts

For Constellation Brands, Inc.'s nearest expiry (2026-09-18, 0 days out), open interest is roughly balanced between puts and calls (put/call ratio of 1.04), with at-the-money implied volatility around 55.9%.

Put/call ratio (2026-09-18)
1.04
ATM implied volatility
55.9%
Total open interest
12,083

Analyst Rating Changes

Are analysts turning bullish or bearish on STZ?

TD Cowen most recently reiterated its rating on Constellation Brands, Inc. to Buy on Sep 17, 2026 with a price target of $150 (from $174). Over the last 90 days, coverage has run 0 upgrades against 0 downgrades, a net mixed lean.

Latest action
TD Cowen — Buy
90-day upgrades
0
90-day downgrades
0
Net rating momentum
0
DateFirmActionRatingPrice target
Sep 17, 2026TD CowenMaintainedBuy$174 → $150
Sep 14, 2026JefferiesMaintainedHold$147 → $135
Sep 11, 2026Deutsche BankMaintainedHold$150 → $136
Jul 21, 2026BarclaysMaintainedEqual-Weight$139 → $132
Jul 2, 2026JefferiesMaintainedHold$157 → $147
Jul 2, 2026BMO CapitalReiteratedOutperform$190
Jul 2, 2026Roth CapitalReiteratedBuy$209
Jul 2, 2026B of A SecuritiesMaintainedUnderperform$152 → $145
Jul 2, 2026JP MorganMaintainedNeutral$169 → $165
Jul 2, 2026Deutsche BankMaintainedHold$155 → $150
Jul 2, 2026RBC CapitalReiteratedOutperform$185
Jul 2, 2026NeedhamReiteratedBuy$185

STZ Competitive Positioning

Constellation Brands, Inc. (STZ) is tracked alongside these names in Beverages - Brewers on DailyIQ — ranked by market cap, with today's move alongside.

Held by These ETFs

STZ is a top holding in these ETFs tracked on DailyIQ — bar length shows portfolio weight.