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TAP·Molson Coors Beverage Company

$42.23
-0.91 (-2.11%)
Pre-Market
High
$42.00
Open
$41.81
Market Cap
7.84B
52W High
$54.82
Low
$40.24
P. Close
$42.23
P/E
-
52W Low
$35.52
Fwd P/E
8.82
DailyIQ Est.
$40.54
Inst. Own.
83.1%
Short Interest
11.66%
Days to Cover
7.0
Div. Yield
4.55%
Next Ex-Div
~Nov 27
NewEarnings release, scored · filed Nov 5, 2026tone +0.6 vs prior release · 143 lines scoredSee the breakdown
Technical Score (1D)
23
BEARISH
News Sentiment
34
BEARISH
On Nov 5, Molson Coors Beverage Co announced that it had cut its 2026 full‑year outlook after reporting third‑quarter revenue that fell 1.6 % year‑over‑year to $2.93 billion, below analyst expectations. The company cited weaker sales volumes and higher operating costs, including increased Midwest Premium, freight and fuel expenses, as the reasons for the downgrade. Net sales for the quarter slipped to $2.93 billion from $2.97 billion, and non‑GAAP earnings per share fell to $1.46, missing the $1.44 consensus estimate. In its earnings call, executives explained that the guidance revision reflected a confirmed material hit to profitability for the year, with underlying EPS expected to decline 16 %‑19 % from the prior range. The company also noted that brand volumes had fallen 4.9 % and that margin pressure was confirmed by higher cost of goods sold and other cost pressures. The guidance cut and the revenue shortfall were reported as material downgrades to the firm’s outlook.
LOW TARGET
$33 -18.0%
6 analysts
MEAN TARGET
$44 +8.4%
20 analysts
HIGH TARGET
$61 +51.6%
4 analysts
PRICE RANGE
$33.00 - $61.00
SB / B / H / S / SS
1/5/14/9/1
DAILYIQ EST.
$40.54 (+0.7%)
Sector
Consumer Defensive
Industry
Beverages - Brewers
Exchange
NYQ
Country
United States
Symbol
TAP
Description
Molson Coors Beverage Company is a global beverage producer with a long history, tracing its origins back to 1774. The company's core business centers on the manufacturing, marketing, and distribution of beer and other malt-based beverages. Its extensive portfolio includes a diverse range of brands, spanning premium, above premium, and economy segments, such as Coors Light, Miller Lite, and Blue Moon. Molson Coors strategically positions its offerings across various regions, including the Americas, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and the Asia Pacific, catering to a broad consumer base. The company also offers flavored malt beverages, including hard seltzers, spirits, and ready-to-drink options, demonstrating its commitment to evolving consumer preferences.
Bought (1Y)
0 shares
$0
Sold (1Y)
6,654 shares
$278K
Cocks Christian P-
Award/Grant789 shares2026-09-30
HERINGTON CHARLES M-
Award/Grant395 shares2026-09-30
HERINGTON CHARLES M-
Award/Grant369 shares2026-06-30
Cocks Christian P-
Award/Grant738 shares2026-06-30
Molson Geoffrey E.-
Sell1,245 shares2026-05-21
44/ 100
Bearish
Overall: Bearish
✕Revenue declining year over year
✕Negative net margin
✓Positive operating cash flow
Gross Margin
32.8%
Net Margin
-16.4%
Revenue CAGR
4.2%
Current Ratio
0.55x
Debt / Equity
0.61x
Return on Equity
-20.9%
Earnings Summary
In the most recent quarter, Q4 2026, the company reported a non‑GAAP EPS of $1.46, a decline from $1.67 a year earlier and below the $1.44 consensus, while net sales fell to $2.93 billion versus $2.97 billion a year prior, missing the $2.94 billion forecast; this mirrors the trend seen in Q3 2026 where EPS of $1.46 matched expectations and revenue of $2.93 billion was slightly below the $2.97 billion estimate. Over the last two quarters, Molson Coors has experienced a modest acceleration in EPS growth from $1.3 in Q4 2024 to $2.05 in Q2 2025, but revenue growth has decelerated, with Q2 2025 revenue at $3.20 billion up from $2.73 billion in Q4 2024, followed by a decline to $2.97 billion in Q3 2025 and $2.66 billion in Q4 2025, indicating a recent slowdown; the company has consistently beat estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters for EPS but has struggled to meet revenue forecasts in the same period. Historically, Molson Coors has shown a YoY revenue growth trajectory that has recently turned negative, with a 1.3 % decline projected for Q3 2026, while EPS has remained relatively stable, reflecting a pattern of revenue volatility amid steady earnings; the company’s guidance has been revised downward for 2026, signaling a cautious outlook. Recent news highlights a downgrade of the 2026 non‑GAAP EPS outlook to a 16‑19 % decline from the prior 11‑15 % range and a 1‑2 % decline in full‑year net sales on a constant‑currency basis, underscoring weaker earnings and sales growth expectations; institutional sentiment has also shifted with ETFs net selling $38 million in early November.

EPS

EstBeatMiss
$0.89$1.22$1.54$1.87$2.20Q2'25Q3'25Q4'25Q2'26Q3'26Q4'26
QtrEstActual+/−
Q4'26$1.04 - -
Q3'26$1.47$1.46-0.4%
Q2'26$1.51$1.58+4.4%
Q4'25$1.17$1.21+3.6%
Q3'25$1.70$1.67-1.5%
Q2'25$1.82$2.05+12.9%

Revenue

EstBeatMiss
$2.6B$2.8B$2.9B$3.1B$3.3BQ2'25Q3'25Q4'25Q2'26Q3'26Q4'26
QtrEstActual+/−
Q4'26$2.7B - -
Q3'26$3.0B$2.9B-1.4%
Q2'26$3.1B$3.1B-0.5%
Q4'25$2.7B$2.7B-3.0%
Q3'25 - $3.0B -
Q2'25 - $3.2B -

Market Data

TAP Stock Snapshot

BEARISH23/100
$40.24−$1.76 (4.2%)
Market cap
7.84B
Day range
$40.24 – $42.00
News sentiment
34/100 · Bearish
Analyst target
$43.62 (+8.4%)
Consensus
Hold · 30 analysts
52-week range+13.3% off low · -26.6% from high
$35.52$54.82
Price $40.24 DailyIQ Est. $40.54

The chart on TAP has not stabilised: price is in the lower half of its 52-week range and the trend is still down. At this size, a single catalyst moves the stock further than it would a larger peer.

Reverse DCF

What growth is priced into TAP?

CHEAP

At today's price, Molson Coors Beverage Company needs to grow free cash flow about -13.0% a year for 3 years, slowing to a long-run rate by year 10, to justify its valuation at a 6.00% cost of capital. Over the last five years its revenue has trended at 1.6% a year, so the market is asking for 14.6 percentage points below its own delivered rate. On that basis TAP looks priced below what its own growth record supports.

Implied FCF growth
-13.0%
Growth trend
1.6%
Growth gap
-14.6 pts
Verdict
CHEAP
Discount rate (WACC)
6.00%
Beta
0.47

Behaviour On Record

What TAP's own history says about today's numbers

Realized volatility (21d)
41.5% 92nd pct
Below its peak
-61.2%
vs 200-day average
+1.8%
Up days (1y)
51%

Molson Coors Beverage Company is currently running 41.5% annualised volatility over the last 21 sessions. Measured against TAP's own 13 years of daily returns rather than a market-wide average, that is the 92nd percentile — an extreme by its own standards, against a typical reading of 24.0%.

TAP is trading -61.2% below its running peak. Across 13 full years on file, its median worst-drawdown-in-a-year was -24.8%, and the deepest was -43.8% in 2020. The current drawdown is already deeper than this stock's typical annual low point, which puts it in the part of its range where past recoveries began, and where past declines also continued.

Price sits +1.8% from its 200-day moving average. Against every other day in its history, that gap ranks at the 66th percentile — a somewhat wider gap than its own norm. Over the past year TAP closed higher on 51% of sessions, and it is currently 1 session into a rising streak.

On November specifically: over 13 years of records, TAP finished the month higher 7 of 13 times, with a median return of +3.7% and an average of +3.5%. Its strongest month historically has been November at +3.5% on average, its weakest May at -1.6%.

Overnight risk is measurable too: TAP has opened more than 2% away from the prior close in 89 of 3,267 sessions (2.7% of the time), with the largest gaps running +6.2% and -5.6%.

All figures computed from 3,268 daily closes between 2013-11-06 and 2026-11-04, split-adjusted, recomputed daily. Percentiles are against TAP's own 13-year history, not a peer group or index.

Sector Rotation

Is money rotating into or out of TAP's sector?

Molson Coors Beverage Company sits in the Consumer Staples sector, currently ranked 2nd of 12 GICS sectors by relative-strength rotation score (weakening).

Sector rank
#2 of 12
Sector state
Weakening
Sector rotation score
73

Options Market

What is the options market pricing for TAP?

CallsPuts

For Molson Coors Beverage Company's nearest expiry (2026-11-20, 14 days out), open interest is call-heavy, a bullish tilt (put/call ratio of 0.47), with at-the-money implied volatility around 0.8%. The options market is pricing roughly a ±0.2% move by that expiry — a range of about $41.94–$42.06.

Put/call ratio (2026-11-20)
0.47
ATM implied volatility
0.8%
Total open interest
5,743
Expected move by 2026-11-20
±0.2% ($41.94–$42.06)

Analyst Consensus Estimates

What do analysts expect TAP to earn?

Analysts expect Molson Coors Beverage Company to earn $4.69 per share in the fiscal year ending Dec 2026 and $5.14 in the fiscal year ending Dec 2028, from 4 estimates. These are analyst forecasts, not company guidance, and later years rest on fewer analysts.

Quarter endingEPS estimateEPS rangeEPS analystsRevenue estimateRevenue analysts
Sep 2026$1.45$1.34 to $1.5916$2.94B15
Dec 2026$1.02$0.89 to $1.0716$2.66B14
Mar 2027$0.55$0.51 to $0.584--
Jun 2027$1.65$1.56 to $1.764--
Sep 2027$1.51$1.36 to $1.624~$3.43B-
Fiscal year endingEPS estimateEPS rangeEPS analystsRevenue estimateRevenue analysts
Dec 2026$4.69$4.43 to $4.8720$11.05B20
Dec 2027$4.79$3.95 to $5.7120$11.05B19
Dec 2028$5.14$4.74 to $5.724~$11.69B-

Revenue marked ~ is our calculation from the EPS estimate, not analyst consensus.

Analyst Rating Changes

Are analysts turning bullish or bearish on TAP?

JP Morgan most recently reiterated its rating on Molson Coors Beverage Company to Neutral on Oct 26, 2026 with a price target of $41 (from $42). Over the last 90 days, coverage has run 0 upgrades against 0 downgrades, a net mixed lean.

Latest action
JP Morgan: Neutral
90-day upgrades
0
90-day downgrades
0
Net rating momentum
0
DateFirmActionRatingPrice target
Oct 26, 2026JP MorganMaintainedNeutral$42 → $41
Oct 16, 2026BarclaysMaintainedUnderweight$41 → $36
Oct 14, 2026CitigroupMaintainedNeutral$42 → $40
Oct 13, 2026TD CowenMaintainedHold$43 → $37
Oct 5, 2026Wells FargoMaintainedEqual-Weight$41 → $38
Aug 10, 2026JP MorganMaintainedNeutral$41 → $42
Aug 7, 2026UBSMaintainedNeutral$40 → $45
Aug 7, 2026NeedhamReiteratedBuy$50
Aug 7, 2026Piper SandlerMaintainedNeutral$45 → $44
Jul 16, 2026UBSMaintainedNeutral$46 → $40
Jul 14, 2026CitigroupMaintainedNeutral$47 → $42
Jul 8, 2026Wells FargoMaintainedEqual-Weight$43 → $41

Earnings Release, Scored

What did Molson Coors Beverage Company's latest earnings release say?

Filed Nov 5, 2026 · SEC Form 8-K, Exhibit 99

Tone51.6/ 100+0.6 vs prior release
Hedging words0.65per 100 words-0.11 vs prior release
Tone, last 3 releasesScale 46–66

Most important lines

  1. 1

    Goodwill impairment: During the third quarter of 2025, we identified a triggering event that indicated it was more likely than not that the carrying value of the Americas reporting unit exceeded its fair value resulting in a $3,645.7 million partial goodwill impairment charge.

    New this quarterNegative tone
  2. 2

    We have adjusted our 2026 guidance for certain key financial metrics due to the impacts of the global macroeconomic environment on the beer industry and on consumer behavior along with persistent promotional activity in the U.K. While we have included in our guidance our best estimate of some of these factors, including higher than anticipated logistics costs, the impacts of these trends are difficult to predict and include inherent uncertainties that could impact our financial performance beyond what is contemplated in our guidance.

    New this quarterNegative tone
  3. 3

    Financial volume decreased 2.9%, primarily due to lower brand volume in the U.S. and industry softness in Canada, partially offset by the favorable timing of shipments.

    New this quarterNegative tone

Peers & ETF holders

TAP peers & ETF holders

News & sentiment

What is the news saying about TAP?

TAP rose 11.6% over the month to Nov 6. News tone held between 10 and 100 from Oct 6 to Oct 15, then jumped to 92 on Oct 21.

Daily close and news tone, Oct 6 to Nov 6
$40Oct 6: tone 49Oct 7Oct 8: tone 92Oct 9: tone 27Oct 12: tone 100Oct 13: tone 30Oct 14: tone 38Oct 15: tone 10Oct 16Oct 19Oct 20Oct 21: tone 92Oct 22: tone 17Oct 23: tone 38Oct 26: tone 32Oct 27: tone 30Oct 28: tone 33Oct 29: tone 31Oct 30Nov 2Nov 3: tone 0Nov 4: tone 62Nov 5: tone 32Nov 6: tone 50Oct 6News toneNov 6123
  1. Oct 22 +5.3%same day: Deutsche Bank Adjusts Molson Coors Beverage PT to $40 From $43, Maintains Hold Rating
  2. Oct 26 -3.4%same day: JP Morgan Maintains Neutral on Molson Coors Beverage, Lowers Price Target to $41
  3. Nov 2 +7.2%

Technical analysis

How strong is TAP's momentum right now?

On the daily chart TAP ranks at the 23rd percentile for momentum against 1,060 stocks and ETFs, a bearish reading.

Momentum rank by timeframe0 = weakest, 100 = strongest
See what drives the rankThe inputs behind each timeframe's momentum rank, plus RSI, stochastics, Bollinger Bands and moving averages. Free with an account.

Institutional ownership

Are big funds buying or selling TAP?

78 of the 171 tracked managers added to TAP in their latest 13F and 84 trimmed. Together they own 83.1% of the company, worth $6.2B. Dodge & Cox and BlackRock alone hold 16.3%.

78adding84trimming9unchanged
Largest holders by stake, latest 13FBar = share of TAP
  1. $742.8M positionAdded 2.9% last quarter
  2. $473.4M positionAdded 3.9% last quarter
  3. $432.8M positionAdded 136.6% last quarter
  4. $413.7M positionAdded 17.4% last quarter
  5. $403.8M positionTrimmed 2.5% last quarter
  6. $351.8M positionAdded 9.3% last quarter
  7. $326.2M positionTrimmed 4.3% last quarter
  8. $246.1M positionAdded 21.4% last quarter
  9. $173.3M positionTrimmed 2.9% last quarter
  10. $153.0M positionAdded 55.6% last quarter
Full holdings history

Congressional trading

Is Congress trading TAP?

5 members of Congress disclosed 12 TAP trades between Aug 13, 2015 and Mar 27, 2026: 6 buys and 6 sells, about $430.0K in estimated value.

BuysSells201620182020202220242026
BuySell$1K–$15K$15K–$50K$50K–$100K$100K–$250K

What stands out

Click one to highlight its trades in the chart

Discover more

How has TAP done against its peers?

Over the six months to Nov 6, TAP returned −4.4%. Of the 7 related stocks, 4 did better, led by KDP at +27.6%.

Change since May 6, through Nov 6
−40%−20%0%+20%+40%May 6JunJulAugSepOctNov 6KDP +27.6%TAP −4.4%PEP −10.5%