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TAP·Molson Coors Beverage Company

$37.53
-1.55 (-3.97%)
After Hours
High
$39.31
Open
$38.75
Market Cap
7.34B
52W High
$54.82
Low
$37.31
P. Close
$37.53
P/E
-
52W Low
$37.76
Fwd P/E
7.98
DailyIQ Est.
$42.32
Inst. Ownership
41.2%
Short Interest
15.20%
Days to Cover
11.2
Technical Score (1D)
36
SELL
News Sentiment
41
BEARISH
BNP Paribas has lowered its price target for Molson Coors Beverage from $34 to $33 and kept an underperform rating, signaling a more cautious view of the brewer’s near‑term earnings. The downgrade reflects the firm’s concern that competitive pressures in the beer market will continue to squeeze margins, which could dampen revenue growth over the next few weeks. Because the new target sits below the current market price, the rating suggests that traders may see limited upside in the short run. The adjustment also underscores the broader uncertainty around consumer spending on discretionary beverages, a factor that could keep the stock’s volatility elevated. Investors should watch for the company’s upcoming earnings release, where guidance on margin trends and pricing power will be critical. Pay attention to any updates on the competitive landscape, such as new product launches or pricing moves by rivals, as these could validate or challenge the underperformance thesis. Finally, monitor macro‑economic data on consumer confidence and disposable income, which can influence beer demand and, by extension, TAP’s profitability.
Earnings Summary
Molson Coors Beverage Company, a long‑standing global brewer, produces and markets a broad portfolio of beer and malt‑based beverages, including premium, above‑premium, and economy brands such as Coors Light, Miller Lite, and Blue Moon, and has expanded into flavored malt, hard seltzers, spirits, and ready‑to‑drink options to meet evolving consumer preferences. Operating in the consumer defensive sector, the company’s performance is closely tied to beer demand, pricing power, and cost control initiatives. In the most recent quarters, Q4 2024 revenue of $2.74 billion exceeded the $2.71 billion estimate, while EPS of $1.30 beat the $1.13 estimate, marking a strong earnings beat. Q1 2025 revenue fell to $2.30 billion, a decline from the prior quarter, and EPS of $0.50 missed the $0.80 estimate, reflecting a slowdown in sales and margin pressure. Q2 2025 revenue surged to $3.20 billion, the highest in the series, with EPS of $2.05 beating the $1.82 estimate, indicating a rebound in volume and pricing. Q3 2025 revenue dipped to $2.97 billion and EPS of $1.67 narrowly missed the $1.70 estimate, suggesting a modest contraction. Q4 2025 revenue of $2.66 billion fell short of the $2.74 billion estimate, and EPS of $1.21 beat the $1.17 estimate, while Q2 2026 revenue of $3.10 billion was slightly below the $3.11 billion estimate and EPS of $1.58 beat the $1.52 estimate. Historically, the company has shown a YoY revenue growth trajectory that has accelerated in Q2 2025 but has been punctuated by EPS misses in Q1 and Q3, reflecting a pattern of revenue expansion amid margin compression. Recent news highlights Goldman Sachs and Jefferies lowering price targets to $47 and $44, respectively, citing expectations of slower revenue growth and tighter margins, and noting U.S. beer shipment declines that underscore volume erosion and competitive pressure. Investors should watch for the next earnings release to gauge the effectiveness of cost‑control initiatives, the impact of digital marketing on brand mix, and any shifts in pricing strategy that could influence margin resilience amid persistent volume weakness.}}

EPS

EstBeatMiss
$0.27$0.77$1.27$1.78$2.28Q1'25Q2'25Q3'25Q4'25Q2'26Q3'26
QtrEstActual+/−
Q3'26$1.48 - -
Q2'26$1.52$1.58+3.7%
Q4'25$1.17$1.21+3.6%
Q3'25$1.70$1.67-1.5%
Q2'25$1.82$2.05+12.9%
Q1'25$0.80$0.50-37.2%

Revenue

EstBeatMiss
$2.2B$2.5B$2.8B$3.0B$3.3BQ1'25Q2'25Q3'25Q4'25Q2'26Q3'26
QtrEstActual+/−
Q3'26$3.0B - -
Q2'26$3.1B$3.1B-0.5%
Q4'25$2.7B$2.7B-3.0%
Q3'25 - $3.0B -
Q2'25 - $3.2B -
Q1'25 - $2.3B -
Full Earnings BreakdownEstimates, actuals, guidance, and historical context
→

Market Data

TAP Stock Snapshot

HOLD36/100
$37.63+$0.10 (0.3%)
Market cap
7.34B
Day range
$37.31 – $39.31
News sentiment
41/100 · Neutral
Analyst target
$45.29 (+20.4%)
Consensus
Hold · 30 analysts
52-week range-0.3% off low · -31.4% from high
$37.76$54.82
Price $37.63 DailyIQ Est. $42.32

The setup on Molson Coors Beverage Company is patient: consolidation, not accumulation or distribution. At this size, a single catalyst moves the stock further than it would a larger peer.

Reverse DCF

What growth is priced into TAP?

CHEAP

At today's price, Molson Coors Beverage Company needs to grow free cash flow about -16.7% a year for the next 10 years to justify its valuation at a 6.00% cost of capital. Over its actual history it has compounded free cash flow at 8.3% a year, so the market is asking for 25.0 percentage points below its own delivered rate. On that basis TAP looks priced below what its own growth record supports.

Implied FCF growth
-16.7%
Historical FCF CAGR
8.3%
Growth gap
-25.0 pts
Verdict
CHEAP
Discount rate (WACC)
6.00%
Beta
0.49

Behaviour On Record

What TAP's own history says about today's numbers

Realized volatility (21d)
23.5% 48th pct
Below its peak
-64.8%
vs 200-day average
-10.9%
Up days (1y)
51%

Molson Coors Beverage Company is currently running 23.5% annualised volatility over the last 21 sessions. Measured against TAP's own 13 years of daily returns rather than a market-wide average, that is the 48th percentile — close to its own typical level, against a typical reading of 23.9%. The distinction matters because a number that looks calm for one stock is turbulent for another, and the absolute figure on its own tells you neither.

TAP is trading -64.8% below its running peak. Across 12 full years on file, its median worst-drawdown-in-a-year was -24.8%, and the deepest was -43.8% in 2020. The current drawdown is already deeper than this stock's typical annual low point, which puts it in the part of its range where past recoveries began — and where past declines also continued.

Price sits -10.9% from its 200-day moving average. Against every other day in its history, that gap ranks at the 19th percentile — a narrower gap than it typically runs. Over the past year TAP closed higher on 51% of sessions, and it is currently 1 session into a falling streak.

On September specifically: over 13 years of records, TAP finished the month higher 6 of 13 times, with a median return of -1.9% and an average of +0.3%. Its strongest month historically has been November at +3.6% on average, its weakest May at -1.6%. Seasonality is a weak signal on its own — a decade is a small sample and regimes change — but it is a real distribution rather than a rule of thumb.

Overnight risk is measurable too: TAP has opened more than 2% away from the prior close in 87 of 3,267 sessions (2.7% of the time), with the largest gaps running +6.2% and -5.6%. For anyone holding through an event, that rate is a better guide to overnight exposure than the intraday range.

All figures computed from 3,268 daily closes between 2013-09-18 and 2026-09-16, split-adjusted, recomputed daily. Percentiles are against TAP's own 13-year history, not a peer group or index.

Sector Rotation

Is money rotating into or out of TAP's sector?

Molson Coors Beverage Company sits in the Consumer Staples sector, currently ranked 6th of 11 GICS sectors by relative-strength rotation score (improving).

Sector rank
#6 of 11
Sector state
Improving
Sector rotation score
60

Options Market

What is the options market pricing for TAP?

CallsPuts

For Molson Coors Beverage Company's nearest expiry (2026-09-18, 0 days out), open interest is roughly balanced between puts and calls (put/call ratio of 0.88), with at-the-money implied volatility around 74.6%.

Put/call ratio (2026-09-18)
0.88
ATM implied volatility
74.6%
Total open interest
3,431

Analyst Rating Changes

Are analysts turning bullish or bearish on TAP?

JP Morgan most recently reiterated its rating on Molson Coors Beverage Company to Neutral on Aug 10, 2026 with a price target of $42 (from $41). Over the last 90 days, coverage has run 0 upgrades against 0 downgrades, a net mixed lean.

Latest action
JP Morgan — Neutral
90-day upgrades
0
90-day downgrades
0
Net rating momentum
0
DateFirmActionRatingPrice target
Aug 10, 2026JP MorganMaintainedNeutral$41 → $42
Aug 7, 2026UBSMaintainedNeutral$40 → $45
Aug 7, 2026NeedhamReiteratedBuy$50
Aug 7, 2026Piper SandlerMaintainedNeutral$45 → $44
Jul 16, 2026UBSMaintainedNeutral$46 → $40
Jul 14, 2026CitigroupMaintainedNeutral$47 → $42
Jul 8, 2026Wells FargoMaintainedEqual-Weight$43 → $41
May 18, 2026Wells FargoMaintainedEqual-Weight$45 → $43
May 5, 2026Morgan StanleyMaintainedEqual-Weight$52 → $46
May 4, 2026BarclaysMaintainedUnderweight$43 → $41
May 1, 2026NeedhamMaintainedBuy$52 → $50
Apr 14, 2026BarclaysMaintainedUnderweight$40 → $43

TAP Competitive Positioning

Molson Coors Beverage Company (TAP) is tracked alongside these names in Beverages - Brewers on DailyIQ — ranked by market cap, with today's move alongside.

Held by These ETFs

TAP is a top holding in these ETFs tracked on DailyIQ — bar length shows portfolio weight.