STX·Seagate Technology Holdings plc

Realized volatility (21d)

66.1% 90th pct

Below its peak

-32.4%

vs 200-day average

+10.2%

Up days (1y)

54%

Seagate Technology Holdings plc is currently running 66.1% annualised volatility over the last 21 sessions. Measured against STX's own 13 years of daily returns rather than a market-wide average, that is the 90th percentile — elevated for this stock, against a typical reading of 34.7%. The distinction matters because a number that looks calm for one stock is turbulent for another, and the absolute figure on its own tells you neither.

STX is trading -32.4% below its running peak. Across 12 full years on file, its median worst-drawdown-in-a-year was -37.1%, and the deepest was -58.2% in 2022. The current pullback is therefore shallower than what this stock gives back in a typical year, which is context worth having before treating it as a dislocation.

Price sits +10.2% from its 200-day moving average. Against every other day in its history, that gap ranks at the 56th percentile — a somewhat wider gap than its own norm. Over the past year STX closed higher on 54% of sessions, and it is currently 3 sessions into a falling streak.

On October specifically: over 14 years of records, STX finished the month higher 6 of 14 times, with a median return of -1.3% and an average of -2.4%. Its strongest month historically has been January at +8.4% on average, its weakest October at -2.4%. Seasonality is a weak signal on its own — a decade is a small sample and regimes change — but it is a real distribution rather than a rule of thumb.

Overnight risk is measurable too: STX has opened more than 2% away from the prior close in 219 of 3,268 sessions (6.7% of the time), with the largest gaps running +6.7% and -10.2%. For anyone holding through an event, that rate is a better guide to overnight exposure than the intraday range.

All figures computed from 3,269 daily closes between 2013-10-15 and 2026-10-14, split-adjusted, recomputed daily. Percentiles are against STX's own 13-year history, not a peer group or index.