DailyIQ
Last updated3 minutes ago

TW·Tradeweb Markets Inc.

$104.00
+1.94 (+1.90%)
Market Closed (Overnight)$103.97-0.03 (-0.03%)
High
$104.47
Open
$102.22
Market Cap
24.33B
52W High
$127.69
Low
$101.65
P. Close
$104.00
P/E
27.12
52W Low
$91.42
Fwd P/E
22.64
DailyIQ Est.
$129.78
Inst. Ownership
1.1%
Short Interest
1.65%
Days to Cover
3.4
Technical Score (1D)
45
NEUTRAL
News Sentiment
48
MIXED
Tradeweb’s Q2 earnings, released just 1.2 hours ago, beat consensus as revenue topped expectations, driven largely by steady fee income from its electronic bond trading platform and robust subscription growth for market‑data services. The beat lifts the broader financial‑exchanges and data group, giving the sector a 3.6 % rally since the earnings announcement. The company’s continued expansion into emerging‑market bond markets provides a modest tailwind for the quarter, but regulatory scrutiny and the need for ongoing technology investment remain potential headwinds. Over the next 1–10 trading days, the market will likely focus on how Tradeweb’s fee‑income mix holds up amid rising regulatory costs and whether its subscription growth can offset any pressure on bond‑trading margins. Watch for the company’s guidance on capital allocation for technology upgrades, as this will signal its confidence in sustaining fee growth. Also monitor any updates on regulatory developments that could impact electronic trading platforms, as these could alter the risk profile for the entire sector. Finally, keep an eye on the broader bond‑market liquidity environment, since Tradeweb’s performance is tightly coupled to trading volume in the fixed‑income space.
Earnings Summary
Tradeweb Markets Inc. is a leading electronic trading platform provider that connects banks, asset managers, and other financial institutions across rates, credit, equities, and money markets, offering execution, pre‑trade analytics, and post‑trade processing tools; it operates within the broader capital markets sector of financial services. In Q1 2025 Tradeweb reported EPS of $0.86 versus an estimate of $0.85695 and revenue of $509.7 million, while Q1 2026 saw EPS of $1.08 against an estimate of $1.103 and revenue of $617.8 million, indicating a modest EPS miss and a slight revenue decline of about 1.1% year‑over‑year; Q2 2026 continued this trend with EPS of $0.97 versus an estimate of $0.9994 and revenue of $558.95 million versus an estimate of $579.29 million, a 3.5% revenue drop, and Q3 2026 EPS remains pending. Over the past four quarters Tradeweb has consistently met or narrowly missed EPS estimates, with revenue growth slowing from a 17.6% compound annual rate to a 3.5% decline in Q2 2026, suggesting a deceleration in fee‑rate or volume growth; the company beat estimates in three of the last four quarters but missed in Q1 2026 and Q2 2026, reflecting a pattern of tightening margins. Recent news highlights that UBS has downgraded the stock to a Buy and trimmed its price target from $150 to $145 citing a recent earnings miss and slower growth, while August 2026 average daily volume rose 13.7% YoY to $2.8 trillion, with U.S. government bond volume up 28.9% and European up 22.2%, underscoring strong liquidity but potential fee‑rate compression; mortgage volume fell 9.2% YoY, which may affect fee income mix. Investors should watch the upcoming Q3 2026 earnings call for management’s discussion of cost‑control initiatives, fee‑rate trends, and any product expansion plans that could influence margin outlook, and monitor analyst rating changes and volume‑to‑fee conversion metrics for signals of future revenue momentum.

EPS

EstBeatMiss
$0.82$0.90$0.98$1.06$1.14Q1'25Q1'26Q2'26Q3'26
QtrEstActual+/−
Q3'26$0.99 - -
Q2'26$1.00$0.97-2.9%
Q1'26$1.10$1.08-2.1%
Q1'25$0.86$0.86+0.4%

Revenue

EstBeatMiss
$493M$530M$567M$604M$641MQ1'25Q1'26Q2'26Q3'26
QtrEstActual+/−
Q3'26$594M - -
Q2'26$579M$559M-3.5%
Q1'26$624M$618M-0.9%
Q1'25 - $510M -

Market Data

TW Stock Snapshot

HOLD45/100
$103.97$0.03 (0.0%)
Market cap
24.33B
P/E ratio
27.1
Day range
$101.65 – $104.47
News sentiment
48/100 · Neutral
Analyst target
$123.64 (+18.9%)
Consensus
Buy · 26 analysts
52-week range+13.7% off low · -18.6% from high
$91.42$127.69
Price $103.97 DailyIQ Est. $129.78

The setup on Tradeweb Markets Inc. is patient: consolidation, not accumulation or distribution. Earnings and guidance carry more weight than macro data at this capitalisation.

Behaviour On Record

What TW's own history says about today's numbers

Realized volatility (21d)
25.6% 44th pct
Below its peak
-30.2%
vs 200-day average
-4.2%
Up days (1y)
49%

Tradeweb Markets Inc. is currently running 25.6% annualised volatility over the last 21 sessions. Measured against TW's own 7 years of daily returns rather than a market-wide average, that is the 44th percentile close to its own typical level, against a typical reading of 26.9%. The distinction matters because a number that looks calm for one stock is turbulent for another, and the absolute figure on its own tells you neither.

TW is trading -30.2% below its running peak. Across 6 full years on file, its median worst-drawdown-in-a-year was -24.0%, and the deepest was -44.9% in 2022. The current drawdown is already deeper than this stock's typical annual low point, which puts it in the part of its range where past recoveries began — and where past declines also continued.

Price sits -4.2% from its 200-day moving average. Against every other day in its history, that gap ranks at the 24th percentile a narrower gap than it typically runs. Over the past year TW closed higher on 49% of sessions, and it is currently 1 session into a rising streak.

On September specifically: over 8 years of records, TW finished the month higher 1 of 8 times, with a median return of -6.4% and an average of -6.0%. Its strongest month historically has been November at +6.8% on average, its weakest September at -6.0%. Seasonality is a weak signal on its own — a decade is a small sample and regimes change — but it is a real distribution rather than a rule of thumb.

Overnight risk is measurable too: TW has opened more than 2% away from the prior close in 93 of 1,874 sessions (5.0% of the time), with the largest gaps running +6.7% and -14.1%. For anyone holding through an event, that rate is a better guide to overnight exposure than the intraday range.

All figures computed from 1,875 daily closes between 2019-04-04 and 2026-09-18, split-adjusted, recomputed daily. Percentiles are against TW's own 8-year history, not a peer group or index.

Sector Rotation

Is money rotating into or out of TW's sector?

Tradeweb Markets Inc. sits in the Financials sector, currently ranked 5th of 11 GICS sectors by relative-strength rotation score (lagging).

Sector rank
#5 of 11
Sector state
Lagging
Sector rotation score
50

Options Market

What is the options market pricing for TW?

CallsPuts

For Tradeweb Markets Inc.'s nearest expiry (2026-10-16, 26 days out), open interest is call-heavy, a bullish tilt (put/call ratio of 0.15), with at-the-money implied volatility around 31.7%. The options market is pricing roughly a ±9.5% move by that expiry — a range of about $96.88–$117.20.

Put/call ratio (2026-10-16)
0.15
ATM implied volatility
31.7%
Total open interest
1,085
Expected move by 2026-10-16
±9.5% ($96.88–$117.20)

Analyst Rating Changes

Are analysts turning bullish or bearish on TW?

UBS most recently reiterated its rating on Tradeweb Markets Inc. to Buy on Sep 9, 2026 with a price target of $145 (from $150). Over the last 90 days, coverage has run 1 upgrade against 0 downgrades, a net bullish lean.

Latest action
UBSBuy
90-day upgrades
1
90-day downgrades
0
Net rating momentum
+1
DateFirmActionRatingPrice target
Sep 9, 2026UBSMaintainedBuy$150 → $145
Aug 3, 2026JP MorganMaintainedOverweight$125 → $117
Jul 31, 2026TD CowenMaintainedHold$105 → $98
Jul 31, 2026Piper SandlerMaintainedNeutral$112 → $102
Jul 31, 2026BarclaysMaintainedEqual-Weight$114 → $113
Jul 16, 2026JP MorganMaintainedOverweight$143 → $125
Jul 10, 2026Morgan StanleyMaintainedEqual-Weight$138 → $122
Jul 9, 2026BarclaysMaintainedEqual-Weight$118 → $114
Jul 7, 2026Raymond JamesMaintainedOutperform$156 → $151
Jun 30, 2026Goldman SachsUpgradeNeutral → Buy$128 → $146
Jun 22, 2026TD CowenMaintainedHold$130 → $109
May 11, 2026UBSMaintainedBuy$145 → $150

TW Competitive Positioning

Tradeweb Markets Inc. (TW) is tracked alongside these names in Capital Markets on DailyIQ — ranked by market cap, with today's move alongside.