DailyIQ
|
Sector:Financial ServicesAll sectors
Last updated1 minute ago

TW·Tradeweb Markets Inc.

$102.36
-1.84 (-1.77%)
High
$103.36
Open
$103.36
Market Cap
23.74B
52W High
$127.69
Low
$102.14
P. Close
$102.36
P/E
26.46
52W Low
$91.42
Fwd P/E
22.69
DailyIQ Est.
$129.78
Inst. Ownership
1.1%
Short Interest
1.67%
Days to Cover
3.4
Technical Score (1D)
36
SELL
News Sentiment
47
MIXED
Tradeweb Markets has just announced that its third‑quarter 2026 financial results will be released on October 29 at 7:00 AM EDT, accompanied by an investor conference call and webcast; no guidance or earnings preview has been provided, so the announcement itself carries no forward‑looking impact beyond the disclosure date. Shortly after, UBS downgraded the stock to a Buy and trimmed its price target from $150 to $145, citing a recent earnings miss and slower growth in its electronic trading platform, which signals analysts’ expectation of tighter margins in the near term. The downgrade underscores the need to watch the upcoming earnings release for any commentary on cost control initiatives or fee‑rate compression that could affect profitability. Despite the recent valuation concerns, Tradeweb’s five‑year revenue CAGR of 17.6 % outpaces the broader financial services sector, and its electronic bond and multi‑asset marketplaces continue to expand across rates, credit, equities, and money markets, driving higher transaction volumes and fee income. August 2026 data show average daily volume rising 13.7 % year‑over‑year to $2.8 trillion, with U.S. government bond activity surging 28.9 % and European government bond activity up 22.2 %, indicating robust institutional demand that supports the firm’s revenue outlook. Mortgage volume fell 9.2 % YoY, but the overall growth in other asset classes offsets this dip, suggesting that the platform’s diversification helps cushion sector‑specific downturns. Technical analysis points to a breakout pattern that could sustain upward momentum, but the recent share price decline and 1‑year total shareholder return drop of 14.21 % have prompted investors to reassess whether the current valuation fully reflects the company’s earnings strength. Going forward, traders should monitor the Q3 earnings call for updates on fee‑rate dynamics, product expansion, and any regulatory changes that could influence market access, as well as any further analyst revisions that might alter the perceived upside.
Earnings Summary
Tradeweb Markets Inc. is a leading electronic trading platform provider that connects banks, asset managers, and other financial institutions across rates, credit, equities, and money markets, offering execution, pre‑trade analytics, and post‑trade processing tools; it operates within the broader capital markets sector of financial services. In Q1 2025 Tradeweb reported EPS of $0.86 versus an estimate of $0.85695 and revenue of $509.7 million, while Q1 2026 saw EPS of $1.08 against an estimate of $1.103 and revenue of $617.8 million, indicating a modest EPS miss and a slight revenue decline of about 1.1% year‑over‑year; Q2 2026 continued this trend with EPS of $0.97 versus an estimate of $0.9994 and revenue of $558.95 million versus an estimate of $579.29 million, a 3.5% revenue drop, and Q3 2026 EPS remains pending. Over the past four quarters Tradeweb has consistently met or narrowly missed EPS estimates, with revenue growth slowing from a 17.6% compound annual rate to a 3.5% decline in Q2 2026, suggesting a deceleration in fee‑rate or volume growth; the company beat estimates in three of the last four quarters but missed in Q1 2026 and Q2 2026, reflecting a pattern of tightening margins. Recent news highlights that UBS has downgraded the stock to a Buy and trimmed its price target from $150 to $145 citing a recent earnings miss and slower growth, while August 2026 average daily volume rose 13.7% YoY to $2.8 trillion, with U.S. government bond volume up 28.9% and European up 22.2%, underscoring strong liquidity but potential fee‑rate compression; mortgage volume fell 9.2% YoY, which may affect fee income mix. Investors should watch the upcoming Q3 2026 earnings call for management’s discussion of cost‑control initiatives, fee‑rate trends, and any product expansion plans that could influence margin outlook, and monitor analyst rating changes and volume‑to‑fee conversion metrics for signals of future revenue momentum.

EPS

EstBeatMiss
$0.82$0.90$0.98$1.06$1.14Q1'25Q1'26Q2'26Q3'26
QtrEstActual+/−
Q3'26$0.99 - -
Q2'26$1.00$0.97-2.9%
Q1'26$1.10$1.08-2.1%
Q1'25$0.86$0.86+0.4%

Revenue

EstBeatMiss
$493M$530M$567M$604M$641MQ1'25Q1'26Q2'26Q3'26
QtrEstActual+/−
Q3'26$594M - -
Q2'26$579M$559M-3.5%
Q1'26$624M$618M-0.9%
Q1'25 - $510M -
Full Earnings BreakdownEstimates, actuals, guidance, and historical context
→

Market Data

TW Stock Snapshot

HOLD36/100
$102.36−$1.84 (1.8%)
Market cap
23.74B
P/E ratio
26.5
Day range
$102.14 – $103.36
News sentiment
47/100 · Neutral
Analyst target
$123.64 (+20.8%)
Consensus
Buy · 26 analysts
52-week range+12.0% off low · -19.8% from high
$91.42$127.69
Price $102.36 DailyIQ Est. $129.78

The setup on Tradeweb Markets Inc. is patient: consolidation, not accumulation or distribution. Earnings and guidance carry more weight than macro data at this capitalisation.

Behaviour On Record

What TW's own history says about today's numbers

Realized volatility (21d)
24.8% 41st pct
Below its peak
-31.2%
vs 200-day average
-5.6%
Up days (1y)
49%

Tradeweb Markets Inc. is currently running 24.8% annualised volatility over the last 21 sessions. Measured against TW's own 7 years of daily returns rather than a market-wide average, that is the 41st percentile — close to its own typical level, against a typical reading of 26.9%. The distinction matters because a number that looks calm for one stock is turbulent for another, and the absolute figure on its own tells you neither.

TW is trading -31.2% below its running peak. Across 6 full years on file, its median worst-drawdown-in-a-year was -24.0%, and the deepest was -44.9% in 2022. The current drawdown is already deeper than this stock's typical annual low point, which puts it in the part of its range where past recoveries began — and where past declines also continued.

Price sits -5.6% from its 200-day moving average. Against every other day in its history, that gap ranks at the 22nd percentile — a narrower gap than it typically runs. Over the past year TW closed higher on 49% of sessions, and it is currently 1 session into a falling streak.

On September specifically: over 8 years of records, TW finished the month higher 1 of 8 times, with a median return of -6.4% and an average of -6.2%. Its strongest month historically has been November at +6.8% on average, its weakest September at -6.2%. Seasonality is a weak signal on its own — a decade is a small sample and regimes change — but it is a real distribution rather than a rule of thumb.

Overnight risk is measurable too: TW has opened more than 2% away from the prior close in 93 of 1,871 sessions (5.0% of the time), with the largest gaps running +6.7% and -14.1%. For anyone holding through an event, that rate is a better guide to overnight exposure than the intraday range.

All figures computed from 1,872 daily closes between 2019-04-04 and 2026-09-15, split-adjusted, recomputed daily. Percentiles are against TW's own 7-year history, not a peer group or index.

Sector Rotation

Is money rotating into or out of TW's sector?

Tradeweb Markets Inc. sits in the Financials sector, currently ranked 4th of 11 GICS sectors by relative-strength rotation score (lagging).

Sector rank
#4 of 11
Sector state
Lagging
Sector rotation score
70

Options Market

What is the options market pricing for TW?

CallsPuts

For Tradeweb Markets Inc.'s nearest expiry (2026-09-18, 3 days out), open interest is call-heavy, a bullish tilt (put/call ratio of 0.33), with at-the-money implied volatility around 70.8%. The options market is pricing roughly a ±5.7% move by that expiry — a range of about $96.52–$108.28.

Put/call ratio (2026-09-18)
0.33
ATM implied volatility
70.8%
Total open interest
394
Expected move by 2026-09-18
±5.7% ($96.52–$108.28)

Analyst Rating Changes

Are analysts turning bullish or bearish on TW?

UBS most recently reiterated its rating on Tradeweb Markets Inc. to Buy on Sep 9, 2026 with a price target of $145 (from $150). Over the last 90 days, coverage has run 1 upgrade against 0 downgrades, a net bullish lean.

Latest action
UBS — Buy
90-day upgrades
1
90-day downgrades
0
Net rating momentum
+1
DateFirmActionRatingPrice target
Sep 9, 2026UBSMaintainedBuy$150 → $145
Aug 3, 2026JP MorganMaintainedOverweight$125 → $117
Jul 31, 2026TD CowenMaintainedHold$105 → $98
Jul 31, 2026Piper SandlerMaintainedNeutral$112 → $102
Jul 31, 2026BarclaysMaintainedEqual-Weight$114 → $113
Jul 16, 2026JP MorganMaintainedOverweight$143 → $125
Jul 10, 2026Morgan StanleyMaintainedEqual-Weight$138 → $122
Jul 9, 2026BarclaysMaintainedEqual-Weight$118 → $114
Jul 7, 2026Raymond JamesMaintainedOutperform$156 → $151
Jun 30, 2026Goldman SachsUpgradeNeutral → Buy$128 → $146
Jun 22, 2026TD CowenMaintainedHold$130 → $109
May 11, 2026UBSMaintainedBuy$145 → $150

TW Competitive Positioning

Tradeweb Markets Inc. (TW) is tracked alongside these names in Capital Markets on DailyIQ — ranked by market cap, with today's move alongside.

Held by These ETFs

TW is a top holding in these ETFs tracked on DailyIQ — bar length shows portfolio weight.