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UMBF·UMB Financial Corporation

$128.10
-1.98 (-1.52%)
High
$129.04
Open
$128.26
Market Cap
9.89B
52W High
$153.32
Low
$125.60
P. Close
$128.10
P/E
10.49
52W Low
$103.38
Fwd P/E
9.35
DailyIQ Est.
$169.40
Inst. Ownership
-
Short Interest
4.70%
Days to Cover
6.7
Technical Score (1D)
23
BEARISH
News Sentiment
28
BEARISH
UMBF scores 23 on the 1D chart, with a SELL signal and declining momentum driving the bearish price trend. The setup is deeply oversold - not oversold, and not showing the kind of exhaustion that typically precedes a sustainable bounce. Sentiment at 28 is aligned with the technical picture, reinforcing the view that both the price action and the news backdrop are pointing the same direction. That kind of confirmed alignment tends to make rallies short-lived and selling pressure more persistent. Traders positioned to the downside are watching $122.28 as the next meaningful reference - a break below that level would likely extend the current leg. Any recovery toward $135.28 should be evaluated carefully before treating it as a reversal rather than a continuation of the downtrend. The absence of a credible reversal signal on the 1D chart matters as much as the SELL reading itself - it's the difference between a stock that's due for a bounce and one that simply hasn't found a floor yet. $122.28 is the next level where that question gets tested; until it does, counter-trend positioning here carries more risk than reward.
LOW TARGET
$147 +14.8%
2 analysts
MEAN TARGET
$166 +29.3%
11 analysts
HIGH TARGET
$182 +42.1%
10 analysts
PRICE RANGE
$147.00 - $182.00
SB / B / H / S / SS
4/14/3/1/1
DAILYIQ EST.
$169.40 (+32.2%)
Bought (1Y)
967.2 shares
$135K
Sold (1Y)
46,951 shares
$6.8M
GRAVES GREG M-
Buy573.145 shares2026-09-01
Peterman Tamara-
Buy394.055 shares2026-09-01
Shankar RamChief Financial Officer
Sell2,000 shares2026-08-17
Terry Thomas SChief Credit Officer
Sell5,713 shares2026-08-17
Murphy Susan G-
Sell902 shares2026-08-06
View full insider trading history →
67/ 100
Bullish
Overall: Bullish
✓Positive operating cash flow
✕High liabilities relative to assets
✓Analyst target above current price
Debt / Equity
0.30x
Return on Equity
9.1%
View full financials →

EPS

EstBeatMiss
$2.39$2.63$2.86$3.09$3.33Q3'25Q3'26
QtrEstActual+/−
Q3'26$3.22 - -
Q3'25$2.50$2.70+8.0%

Revenue

EstBeatMiss
$601M$645M$689M$732M$776MQ3'25Q3'26
QtrEstActual+/−
Q3'26$756M - -
Q3'25 - $622M -
Full Earnings BreakdownEstimates, actuals, guidance, and historical context
→

Market Data

UMBF Stock Snapshot

BEARISH23/100
$128.10−$1.98 (1.5%)
Market cap
9.89B
P/E ratio
10.5
Day range
$125.60 – $129.04
News sentiment
28/100 · Bearish
Analyst target
$165.69 (+29.3%)
Consensus
Buy · 23 analysts
52-week range+23.9% off low · -16.4% from high
$103.38$153.32
Price $128.10 DailyIQ Est. $169.40

UMBF's technical picture is under pressure, with momentum working against price. Position sizing matters more than usual in a name this size, where volatility is structural.

Behaviour On Record

What UMBF's own history says about today's numbers

Realized volatility (21d)
14.6% 4th pct
Below its peak
-14.6%
vs 200-day average
-0.2%
Up days (1y)
49%

UMB Financial Corporation is currently running 14.6% annualised volatility over the last 21 sessions. Measured against UMBF's own 13 years of daily returns rather than a market-wide average, that is the 4th percentile — unusually subdued by its own history, against a typical reading of 25.8%. The distinction matters because a number that looks calm for one stock is turbulent for another, and the absolute figure on its own tells you neither.

UMBF is trading -14.6% below its running peak. Across 12 full years on file, its median worst-drawdown-in-a-year was -22.4%, and the deepest was -41.0% in 2023. The current pullback is therefore shallower than what this stock gives back in a typical year, which is context worth having before treating it as a dislocation.

Price sits -0.2% from its 200-day moving average. Against every other day in its history, that gap ranks at the 44th percentile — close to the gap it normally carries. Over the past year UMBF closed higher on 49% of sessions, and it is currently 1 session into a falling streak.

On October specifically: over 13 years of records, UMBF finished the month higher 7 of 13 times, with a median return of +3.8% and an average of +2.8%. Its strongest month historically has been November at +6.6% on average, its weakest March at -5.0%. Seasonality is a weak signal on its own — a decade is a small sample and regimes change — but it is a real distribution rather than a rule of thumb.

Overnight risk is measurable too: UMBF has opened more than 2% away from the prior close in 170 of 3,267 sessions (5.2% of the time), with the largest gaps running +18.0% and -18.2%. For anyone holding through an event, that rate is a better guide to overnight exposure than the intraday range.

All figures computed from 3,268 daily closes between 2013-10-07 and 2026-10-05, split-adjusted, recomputed daily. Percentiles are against UMBF's own 13-year history, not a peer group or index.

Sector Rotation

Is money rotating into or out of UMBF's sector?

UMB Financial Corporation sits in the Financials sector, currently ranked 11th of 12 GICS sectors by relative-strength rotation score (improving). Within its narrower Banks industry group, UMBF ranks 11th of 15 tracked industries, improving.

Sector rank
#11 of 12
Sector state
Improving
Sector rotation score
18
Industry rank
#11 of 15

Options Market

What is the options market pricing for UMBF?

CallsPuts

For UMB Financial Corporation's nearest expiry (2026-10-16, 9 days out), open interest is put-heavy, a defensive/bearish tilt (put/call ratio of 1.47), with at-the-money implied volatility around 58.3%. The options market is pricing roughly a ±9.6% move by that expiry — a range of about $115.44–$139.88.

Put/call ratio (2026-10-16)
1.47
ATM implied volatility
58.3%
Total open interest
842
Expected move by 2026-10-16
±9.6% ($115.44–$139.88)

Analyst Rating Changes

Are analysts turning bullish or bearish on UMBF?

JP Morgan most recently reiterated its rating on UMB Financial Corporation to Overweight on Oct 1, 2026 with a price target of $160 (from $180). Over the last 90 days, coverage has run 0 upgrades against 0 downgrades, a net mixed lean.

Latest action
JP Morgan — Overweight
90-day upgrades
0
90-day downgrades
0
Net rating momentum
0
DateFirmActionRatingPrice target
Oct 1, 2026JP MorganMaintainedOverweight$180 → $160
Sep 30, 2026Wells FargoMaintainedEqual-Weight$160 → $147
Sep 28, 2026Morgan StanleyMaintainedOverweight$190 → $182
Sep 14, 2026UBSInitiatedNeutral$155
Sep 8, 2026Morgan StanleyMaintainedOverweight$159 → $190
Aug 20, 2026JP MorganInitiatedOverweight$180
Aug 10, 2026Wells FargoMaintainedEqual-Weight$139 → $160
Aug 4, 2026Truist SecuritiesMaintainedBuy$161 → $170
Aug 3, 2026BarclaysMaintainedOverweight$170 → $175
Jul 31, 2026CitigroupMaintainedNeutral$144 → $162
Jul 30, 2026RBC CapitalMaintainedOutperform$168 → $170
Jul 30, 2026Piper SandlerMaintainedOverweight$161 → $181

Held by These ETFs

UMBF is a top holding in these ETFs tracked on DailyIQ — bar length shows portfolio weight.

News Sentiment Analysis

Sentiment gathered from recent headlines

28/100
Strong NegativeNeutralStrong Positive
BEARISH

Recent News Coverage

Most recent articles, ranked by recency (click to expand).

10+ articles
What did this article say?
TD Cowen analyst Janet Lee kept a Buy recommendation on UMB Financial (NASDAQ:UMBF) but lowered the price target from $166 to $152. The downgrade reflects concerns over the bank’s earnings outlook and competitive pressures in the regional banking sector. The firm cited weaker loan growth and higher operating costs as key factors driving the target reduction. The decision signals a modest negative outlook for the stock, though the rating remains positive.
What did this article say?
JP Morgan analyst Anthony Elian reduced UMB Financial’s (NASDAQ:UMBF) price target from $180 to $160 while keeping an Overweight rating. The downgrade reflects concerns about the bank’s earnings outlook and competitive pressures in the regional banking sector. The move signals a modest negative adjustment to the stock’s valuation expectations.
What did this article say?
Wells Fargo analyst Terry McEvoy reduced the price target for UMB Financial (NASDAQ:UMBF) from $160 to $147 while keeping the stock on an equal‑weight recommendation. The downgrade signals a more cautious view of the bank’s near‑term earnings prospects. The change reflects concerns about the broader banking environment and UMB’s exposure to commercial real estate. The rating adjustment is expected to influence investor sentiment and could pressure the stock’s valuation.
What did this article say?
UMBF reported a 21.7% annualized increase in net interest income over the past five years, outpacing the broader banking sector. The company’s net interest margin has also improved, indicating stronger profitability. These metrics suggest a solid financial foundation and potential upside for investors. The analysis positions UMBF as a compelling buy relative to its peers.
What did this article say?
UMBF stock climbed 14.7% over the past year, outperforming the broader market and most peers. The rally was driven by robust balance‑sheet growth, including a $9.7 billion loan addition from the January 2025 Heartland Financial acquisition. Earnings were supported by resilient net interest income, though rising costs and commercial risks were noted as potential headwinds. The performance suggests a solid, though not transformative, upside for the bank.
What did this article say?
Morgan Stanley analyst Brian Wilczynski kept an Overweight stance on UMB Financial (NASDAQ:UMBF) but reduced the price target from $190 to $182. The downgrade reflects concerns about the bank’s earnings outlook and competitive pressures. The rating change signals a modest negative view on the company’s near‑term valuation prospects.
What did this article say?
UMBF’s stock has risen 127% over the past three years, prompting analysts to question whether the valuation reflects the bank’s underlying return on capital. The firm’s ability to convert deposits and fee income into profitable lending remains the key metric for investors. A higher return on equity would justify the current price, while weaker performance could signal a re‑pricing. The debate centers on whether the bank’s capital efficiency can sustain the recent upside.
What did this article say?
Zacks analysts highlight UMB Financial (UMBF) as a candidate for value investors, noting its strong Zacks Rank and favorable value metrics. The commentary suggests that the market may be overlooking the stock’s fundamentals, creating a potential upside scenario. While no new earnings or guidance data are disclosed, the piece signals that UMBF could be a buying opportunity for those focused on value plays.
What did this article say?
UMBF’s share price has fallen 7.3% over the past month, but technical analysis shows the stock is now oversold, with an RSI below 30. Wall Street analysts largely agree the company can beat current earnings estimates, suggesting a potential upside. The convergence of technical signals and upgraded earnings expectations points to a possible short‑term turnaround, though the move is not yet confirmed by fundamental catalysts.
What did this article say?
UMB (UMBF) has fallen 8.2% over the past month, but technical analysis now classifies the stock as oversold, suggesting a potential bottom. Analysts have raised earnings forecasts, reflecting confidence in the company’s fundamentals. The convergence of technical exhaustion and upgraded estimates points to a near‑term trend reversal.

Technical Analysis

Real-time indicators across multiple timeframes

23
BEARISH
Technical indicators reflect the latest computed signal mix for this timeframe.
Unlock full technicals
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Congressional Trading Activity
1 disclosed trades · ~$8.0K est. traded value · 0 buys, 1 sells
MemberChamberStateTypeAmountTradedFiled
Josh GottheimerHouseNJ05▼ Sell$1K - $15K2025-04-092025-05-14
View full congressional trading history →

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