DailyIQ
|
Sector:TechnologyAll sectors
Last updatedjust now

MSFT·Microsoft Corporation

$533.86
-9.59 (-1.76%)
After Hours
High
$547.45
Open
$545.29
Market Cap
4.08T
52W High
$557.50
Low
$529.50
P. Close
$533.86
P/E
30.49
52W Low
$349.20
Fwd P/E
22.96
DailyIQ Est.
$640.82
Inst. Ownership
37.6%
Short Interest
0.82%
Days to Cover
2.5
Div. Yield
0.69%
Next Ex-Div
~Nov 19
Div. Growth
20+ yrs
NewEarnings release, scored · filed Jul 29, 2026tone +7.7 vs prior release · 42 lines scoredSee the breakdown
Technical Score (1D)
36
BEARISH
News Sentiment
63
BULLISH
On Oct 13, Microsoft closed at a record high, a rally that analysts linked to expectations that its Azure cloud platform and Copilot AI tools would lift revenue and deepen customer adoption of its cloud services. On Oct 13, the company disclosed that it had secured more than $130 billion in new data‑center leases during the quarter, raising its total uncommitted lease commitments to $329.1 billion from $196.6 billion; the leases were said to underpin long‑term growth in AI‑driven workloads and cloud offerings. On Oct 13, Microsoft announced the creation of Xbox Labs, a new group dedicated to prototyping emerging gaming technologies and sharing tools with external developers, a move described as a strategic focus on innovation rather than an immediate revenue impact. On Oct 13, a separate article noted that a hypothetical $70,000 raise for a senior engineer could lift total compensation to $240,000, but only a fraction of that increase would count toward future Social Security benefits, with bonuses and stock awards further raising pay yet being taxed before Social Security calculations. All reports highlighted the company’s continued emphasis on AI and cloud infrastructure while noting that the compensation details did not directly affect Microsoft’s financial performance.
LOW TARGET
$440 -16.9%
2 analysts
MEAN TARGET
$590 +11.3%
14 analysts
HIGH TARGET
$870 +64.3%
55 analysts
PRICE RANGE
$440.00 - $870.00
SB / B / H / S / SS
23/41/5/1/1
DAILYIQ EST.
$640.82 (+21.0%)
Sector
Technology
Industry
Software - Infrastructure
Exchange
NMS
Country
United States
Website
microsoft.com
Symbol
MSFT
Description
Microsoft Corporation is a global technology leader focused on empowering individuals and organizations through a diverse portfolio of software, services, and devices. The company's core value proposition lies in its comprehensive offerings spanning productivity, cloud computing, and personal computing. Microsoft's business is segmented into three key areas: Productivity and Business Processes, which includes Microsoft 365 and LinkedIn; Intelligent Cloud, featuring Azure and server products; and Personal Computing, encompassing Windows, Xbox, and search advertising. Distribution channels for Microsoft's products and services include original equipment manufacturers, distributors, resellers, online platforms, and retail stores, ensuring broad market reach worldwide. Founded in 1975, the company is headquartered in Redmond, Washington.
Bought (1Y)
0 shares
$0
Sold (1Y)
284,148.198 shares
$142.1M
Althoff JudsonEVP, Chief Commercial Officer
Award/Grant29,077 shares2026-09-15
Coleman AmyEVP, Chief Human Resources Off
Award/Grant6,506 shares2026-09-15
Hood AmyEVP & Chief Financial Officer
Award/Grant29,077 shares2026-09-15
Numoto TakeshiEVP, Chief Marketing Officer
Award/Grant11,569 shares2026-09-15
SMITH BRADFORD LVice Chair and President
Award/Grant29,077 shares2026-09-15
View full insider trading history →
82/ 100
Bullish
Overall: Bullish
✓Revenue growing year over year
✓Positive net margin
✓Positive operating cash flow
Gross Margin
67.9%
Net Margin
40.3%
Revenue CAGR
9.9%
Current Ratio
1.23x
Debt / Equity
0.09x
Return on Equity
30.2%
View full financials →
Earnings Summary
Microsoft Corporation, a global technology leader headquartered in Redmond, Washington, delivers a diversified portfolio spanning productivity software, cloud infrastructure, and personal computing, positioning it firmly within the software‑infrastructure sector. In recent quarters, the company has consistently outperformed analyst expectations, with Q4 2024 EPS of $3.23 beating the $3.10 estimate and revenue of $69.63 billion, followed by Q1 2025 EPS of $3.46 versus $3.22 and revenue of $70.07 billion, and Q2 2025 EPS of $3.65 versus $3.38 and revenue of $76.44 billion. The trend continued into Q3 2025, where EPS rose to $3.72 against a $3.66 estimate and revenue reached $77.67 billion, demonstrating a steady acceleration in both earnings and top line growth. Microsoft has beaten estimates in each of the last four quarters, underscoring a robust earnings trajectory. Historically, the company has maintained double‑digit YoY revenue growth, with EPS growth consistently outpacing revenue growth, and has rarely missed analyst forecasts, reflecting disciplined financial management. Recent news highlights Microsoft’s strategic focus on AI and cloud, notably the record‑high share price on Oct 13 driven by expectations of Azure and Copilot AI tools, and the securing of $130 billion in new data‑center leases to support AI‑driven workloads. These developments reinforce the company’s commitment to expanding its cloud footprint and AI capabilities, which are likely contributors to its earnings momentum.

EPS

EstBeatMiss
$2.99$3.48$3.98$4.47$4.97Q1'25Q2'25Q3'25Q3'26Q4'26Q1'27
QtrEstActual+/−
Q1'27$4.72 - -
Q4'26$4.33$4.74+9.5%
Q3'26$4.14$4.27+3.1%
Q3'25$3.66$3.72+1.6%
Q2'25$3.38$3.65+8.0%
Q1'25$3.22$3.46+7.6%

Revenue

EstBeatMiss
$66.7B$74.0B$81.3B$88.5B$95.8BQ1'25Q2'25Q3'25Q3'26Q4'26Q1'27
QtrEstActual+/−
Q1'27$92.5B - -
Q4'26$89.4B$90.0B+0.7%
Q3'26$83.0B$82.9B-0.2%
Q3'25 - $77.7B -
Q2'25 - $76.4B -
Q1'25 - $70.1B -
Full Earnings BreakdownEstimates, actuals, guidance, and historical context
→

Market Data

MSFT Stock Snapshot

NEUTRAL36/100
$529.48−$4.27 (0.8%)
Market cap
4.08T
P/E ratio
30.5
Day range
$529.50 – $547.45
News sentiment
63/100 · Bullish
Analyst target
$589.60 (+11.4%)
Consensus
Buy · 71 analysts
52-week range+51.6% off low · -5.0% from high
$349.20$557.50
Price $529.48 DailyIQ Est. $640.82

Neither side has the upper hand on MSFT right now, and its momentum ranks near the middle of DailyIQ's universe. A stock this widely held moves on consensus revisions more than on individual catalysts.

Reverse DCF

What growth is priced into MSFT?

RICH

At today's price, Microsoft Corporation needs to grow free cash flow about 41.7% a year for the next 10 years to justify its valuation at a 9.99% cost of capital. Over its actual history it has compounded free cash flow at 8.7% a year, so the market is asking for 33.0 percentage points above its own delivered rate. On that basis MSFT looks priced above what its own growth record supports.

Implied FCF growth
41.7%
Historical FCF CAGR
8.7%
Growth gap
+33.0 pts
Verdict
RICH
Discount rate (WACC)
9.99%
Beta
0.96

Behaviour On Record

What MSFT's own history says about today's numbers

Realized volatility (21d)
19.6% 40th pct
Below its peak
-1.8%
vs 200-day average
+25.4%
Up days (1y)
50%

Microsoft Corporation is currently running 19.6% annualised volatility over the last 21 sessions. Measured against MSFT's own 13 years of daily returns rather than a market-wide average, that is the 40th percentile — on the quiet side for this stock, against a typical reading of 21.7%. The distinction matters because a number that looks calm for one stock is turbulent for another, and the absolute figure on its own tells you neither.

MSFT is trading -1.8% below its running peak. Across 13 full years on file, its median worst-drawdown-in-a-year was -15.7%, and the deepest was -36.1% in 2022. The current pullback is therefore shallower than what this stock gives back in a typical year, which is context worth having before treating it as a dislocation.

Price sits +25.4% from its 200-day moving average. Against every other day in its history, that gap ranks at the 98th percentile — a wider gap than this stock usually carries. Over the past year MSFT closed higher on 50% of sessions, and it is currently 3 sessions into a rising streak.

On October specifically: over 14 years of records, MSFT finished the month higher 9 of 14 times, with a median return of +3.3% and an average of +3.5%. Its strongest month historically has been July at +5.1% on average, its weakest February at -0.8%. Seasonality is a weak signal on its own — a decade is a small sample and regimes change — but it is a real distribution rather than a rule of thumb.

Overnight risk is measurable too: MSFT has opened more than 2% away from the prior close in 27 of 3,272 sessions (0.8% of the time), with the largest gaps running +6.3% and -5.1%. For anyone holding through an event, that rate is a better guide to overnight exposure than the intraday range.

All figures computed from 3,273 daily closes between 2013-10-15 and 2026-10-14, split-adjusted, recomputed daily. Percentiles are against MSFT's own 13-year history, not a peer group or index.

Sector Rotation

Is money rotating into or out of MSFT's sector?

Microsoft Corporation sits in the Software sector, currently ranked 5th of 12 GICS sectors by relative-strength rotation score (weakening). Within its narrower Software industry group, MSFT ranks 3rd of 15 tracked industries, weakening.

Sector rank
#5 of 12
Sector state
Weakening
Sector rotation score
73
Industry rank
#3 of 15

Options Market

What is the options market pricing for MSFT?

CallsPuts

For Microsoft Corporation's nearest expiry (2026-10-14, 0 days out), open interest is call-heavy, a bullish tilt (put/call ratio of 0.72), with at-the-money implied volatility around 16.0%.

Put/call ratio (2026-10-14)
0.72
ATM implied volatility
16.0%
Total open interest
56,769

Analyst Rating Changes

Are analysts turning bullish or bearish on MSFT?

Barclays most recently reiterated its rating on Microsoft Corporation to Overweight on Oct 13, 2026 with a price target of $600 (from $512). Over the last 90 days, coverage has run 1 upgrade against 0 downgrades, a net bullish lean.

Latest action
Barclays — Overweight
90-day upgrades
1
90-day downgrades
0
Net rating momentum
+1
DateFirmActionRatingPrice target
Oct 13, 2026BarclaysMaintainedOverweight$512 → $600
Oct 7, 2026Evercore ISI GroupMaintainedOutperform$528 → $635
Oct 5, 2026ScotiabankMaintainedSector Outperform$510 → $615
Oct 1, 2026Wells FargoMaintainedOverweight$700 → $725
Sep 30, 2026Piper SandlerMaintainedOverweight$550 → $610
Sep 23, 2026StifelUpgradeHold → Buy$530 → $575
Sep 22, 2026OppenheimerMaintainedOutperform$515 → $570
Sep 21, 2026Cantor FitzgeraldMaintainedOverweight$522 → $608
Sep 15, 2026CitizensReiteratedMarket Outperform$550
Sep 4, 2026StifelMaintainedHold$450 → $530
Sep 1, 2026B of A SecuritiesMaintainedBuy$500 → $600
Aug 12, 2026Wells FargoMaintainedOverweight$650 → $700

Earnings Release, Scored

What did Microsoft Corporation's latest earnings release say?

Filed Jul 29, 2026 · SEC Form 8-K, Exhibit 99

Tone79.9/ 100+7.7 vs prior release
Hedging words0.00per 100 words0.00 vs prior release
Tone, last 2 releasesScale 50–85

Most important lines

  1. 1

    “This year, Azure revenue surpassed $100 billion for the first time, and Microsoft 365 Copilot reached over 30 million paid seats, reflecting the confidence customers are placing in us to power their AI transformation.”

    New this quarter
  2. 2

    Several discrete items impacted our financial results in the quarter when compared to our forward-looking guidance provided on April 29, 2026, resulting in a benefit of $0.27 on diluted earnings per share.

    New this quarterNegative tone
  3. 3

    These include a $3.2 billion gain from our investment in Anthropic and lower-than-expected expenses related to the Voluntary Retirement Program which were partially offset by severance expense and impairment charges in XBOX.

    New this quarter

Scores describe the release's wording. They are not a forecast.

Read all 42 scored lines →

Peers & ETF holders

MSFT peers & ETF holders

Software - InfrastructureMarket cap · today

Top ETF holdersWeight

News Sentiment Analysis

Sentiment gathered from recent headlines

63/100
Strong NegativeNeutralStrong Positive
MODERATELY BULLISH

Recent News Coverage

Most recent articles, ranked by recency (click to expand).

10+ articles
What did this article say?
Microsoft announced a late‑career promotion that raised senior engineer base salaries to $237,600 in high‑cost markets, with bonuses and stock options potentially increasing total compensation further. The increase pushes wages above the 2026 Social Security taxable cap of $184,500, meaning only a portion of the raise contributes to future benefits. Employees earning above the cap avoid the 6.2% payroll tax, saving significant annual amounts. The article explains how higher‑cost‑market pay and retirement planning options like 401(k) contributions can offset the limited Social Security benefit impact.
What did this article say?
Microsoft reported over $130 billion in new data‑center leases for the quarter, reflecting a rapid build‑out of AI infrastructure. The company’s total uncommitted lease commitments rose to $329.1 billion, up from $196.6 billion in the prior period, indicating sustained demand for cloud and AI services. These leases will not hit the balance sheet until payments begin, but they signal a long‑term investment in capacity that supports Microsoft’s growth strategy.
What did this article say?
Microsoft closed at a record high on October 13, driven by strong expectations around its Azure cloud platform and the Copilot AI suite. Analysts noted that the company’s AI capabilities are expected to lift revenue and deepen customer adoption of its cloud services. The rally reflected confidence that Microsoft’s AI strategy will generate significant long‑term growth and reinforce its competitive position in enterprise software.
What did this article say?
Microsoft announced the creation of Xbox Labs, a new group dedicated to transforming emerging gaming technologies into products for players and developers. The initiative aims to prototype and share tools with the broader industry, fostering collaboration and rapid experimentation. While the move signals a commitment to innovation, it does not represent a material shift in revenue or market positioning at this stage.
What did this article say?
Microsoft’s chief executive Satya Nadella announced new internal guidelines that treat AI agents as if they were risky insiders. The rules require rigorous safety checks before any bot can interact with company finances or sensitive data. The policy aims to prevent accidental misuse or malicious exploitation of AI tools within the organization. While the move signals a cautious stance, it does not indicate a material shift in business strategy or financial outlook.
What did this article say?
Microsoft announced the Surface Laptop Ultra in San Francisco, equipping it with Nvidia's RTX Spark GPU, a Grace CPU, and up to 128 GB of unified memory. The device is positioned to run AI models with over 120 billion parameters locally, reducing reliance on remote data centers. The launch signals Microsoft’s intent to expand AI capabilities beyond cloud infrastructure into consumer hardware. By targeting high‑performance AI workloads, Microsoft aims to compete directly with Apple’s MacBook Pro in the premium laptop market. The move reflects a strategic bet on edge‑AI adoption and could broaden Microsoft’s Surface ecosystem.
What did this article say?
An analysis of big‑tech valuations notes that Microsoft is the least expensive of the core four tech stocks, largely due to a perceived lackluster AI strategy. The piece contrasts Microsoft’s price‑to‑earnings ratio with those of Apple, Alphabet, and Amazon, attributing the lower valuation to weaker AI‑related growth expectations. The article suggests that investors may view Microsoft’s AI initiatives as less compelling compared to competitors. No direct financial or operational changes to Microsoft are reported.
What did this article say?
Microsoft was suspended from the U.S. PERM green‑card program while federal investigators probe its H‑1B visa practices. The agency is examining whether the company misused visas in a manner that violates labor and immigration regulations. The suspension adds regulatory scrutiny at a time when Microsoft depends on global technical talent for critical projects. The investigation could affect hiring timelines and compliance costs. The outcome remains uncertain but signals heightened risk for the company’s workforce strategy.
What did this article say?
Microsoft’s GitHub platform reported that one in three pull requests now involve an AI agent, up from fewer than one in ten a year earlier. The rise in AI‑assisted coding coincided with a rebound in U.S. software developer job postings, especially for senior and AI‑focused roles, despite a broader decline in overall hiring. The data suggest that AI tools are augmenting, rather than replacing, developer demand, supporting continued investment in Microsoft’s cloud and AI services. The trend indicates a sustained need for skilled developers to manage and integrate AI‑generated code within Microsoft’s ecosystem. The shift may reinforce Microsoft’s position as a leader in AI‑enabled software development.
What did this article say?
Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella highlighted the need for stronger AI security and limited agent access in response to increasing cybersecurity incidents. The remarks suggest a cautious stance on AI deployment, emphasizing risk mitigation over rapid expansion. This stance may temper short‑term growth expectations for Microsoft’s AI offerings but does not indicate an immediate strategic shift.

Technical Analysis

Real-time indicators across multiple timeframes

36
BEARISH
Momentum rank against about 1,000 stocks and ETFs for this timeframe.
Unlock full technicals
Create a free account to access more indicators and deeper timeframe data.
Institutional & Hedge Fund Ownership
25 tracked managers · $1.11T combined position · 15 adding, 10 trimming, 0 unchanged (latest 13F filings)
ManagerTrendShares Held% of Co.Position ValueFiled
Vanguard Group Inc▲ Buy717,942,5809.59%$347.21B2026-01-29
BlackRock, Inc.▲ Buy607,367,1138.11%$226.56B2026-08-07
Geode Capital Management, LLC▲ Buy189,632,0902.53%$70.57B2026-08-12
FMR LLC (Fidelity)▼ Sell185,960,0662.48%$69.37B2026-08-13
JPMorgan Chase & Co▲ Buy135,173,5161.81%$49.82B2026-08-12
Morgan Stanley▲ Buy127,674,6611.71%$47.63B2026-08-13
Norges Bank▼ Sell102,732,9561.37%$38.32B2026-08-12
Invesco Ltd.▲ Buy100,247,8901.34%$37.39B2026-08-14
Capital Research Global Investors▼ Sell94,750,3691.27%$35.34B2026-08-12
Northern Trust Corp▼ Sell78,663,4461.05%$29.34B2026-08-13
Bank of America Corp▲ Buy73,289,2860.98%$27.34B2026-08-14
Goldman Sachs Group Inc▲ Buy63,933,0830.85%$23.85B2026-08-14
Capital World Investors▼ Sell55,139,1280.74%$20.57B2026-08-12
Wellington Management Group LLP▼ Sell47,603,8200.64%$17.76B2026-08-14
Wells Fargo & Company▲ Buy33,423,0860.45%$12.47B2026-08-14
Fisher Asset Management, LLC▲ Buy26,611,7280.36%$9.93B2026-08-04
AllianceBernstein L.P.▼ Sell25,998,4590.35%$9.62B2026-08-14
Janus Henderson Group plc▼ Sell23,878,9820.32%$8.81B2026-05-18
Citigroup Inc▲ Buy19,050,4440.25%$7.11B2026-08-03
AQR Capital Management LLC▲ Buy11,473,0570.15%$4.26B2026-08-14
Neuberger Berman Group LLC▼ Sell10,608,2820.14%$3.96B2026-08-13
Susquehanna International Group, LLP▲ Buy7,932,4060.11%$2.96B2026-08-14
Loomis Sayles & Co L P▲ Buy7,779,6960.10%$2.90B2026-08-14
Prudential Financial Inc▼ Sell6,611,0700.09%$2.47B2026-08-12
Adage Capital Partners GP, L.L.C.▲ Buy6,579,9430.09%$2.45B2026-08-14
Q2 2026 flow:84.61M sh bought ($31.52B)27.30M sh sold ($10.17B)net +57.30M sh (+$21.35B)
View full institutional holdings history →
Congressional Trading Activity
25 disclosed trades · ~$1.93M est. traded value · 10 buys, 15 sells
MemberChamberStateTypeAmountTradedFiled
Lisa McClainHouseMI09▲ Buy$1K - $15K2026-09-302026-10-12
Michael RulliHouseOH06▼ Sell$1K - $15K2026-09-282026-10-02
Maria Elvira SalazarHouseFL27▼ Sell$1K - $15K2026-09-242026-10-07
Cleo FieldsHouseLA06▲ Buy$1K - $15K2026-09-102026-10-01
Thomas H. KeanHouseNJ07▼ Sell$15K - $50K2026-08-272026-09-12
David J. TaylorHouseOH02▼ Sell$1K - $15K2026-08-262026-09-05
Kevin HernHouseOK01▼ Sell$15K - $50K2026-08-212026-09-01
Gilbert CisnerosHouseCA31▲ Buy$15K - $50K2026-08-182026-09-10
Josh GottheimerHouseNJ05▲ Buy$250K - $500K2026-08-142026-09-14
Josh GottheimerHouseNJ05▼ Sell$250K - $500K2026-08-142026-09-14
David J. TaylorHouseOH02▼ Sell$15K - $50K2026-08-112026-08-20
Richard Dean Dr McCormickHouseGA06▼ Sell$1K - $15K2026-07-302026-08-14
David J. TaylorHouseOH02▲ Buy$1K - $15K2026-07-242026-08-06
Shelley Moore CapitoSenateWV▼ Sell$15K - $50K2026-07-212026-08-04
Gilbert CisnerosHouseCA31▲ Buy$15K - $50K2026-07-172026-09-04
Michael RulliHouseOH06▼ Sell$1K - $15K2026-06-252026-08-07
Jared MoskowitzHouseFL23▲ Buy$1K - $15K2026-06-172026-07-26
Gilbert CisnerosHouseCA31▼ Sell$15K - $50K2026-06-162026-07-02
Matthew Robert Van EppsHouseTN07▼ Sell$1K - $15K2026-06-162026-06-17
Cleo FieldsHouseLA06▲ Buy$1K - $15K2026-06-112026-06-26
Thomas H. KeanHouseNJ07▼ Sell$1K - $15K2026-06-022026-07-15
Josh GottheimerHouseNJ05▼ Sell$250K - $500K2026-05-192026-06-03
Josh GottheimerHouseNJ05▲ Buy$250K - $500K2026-05-192026-06-03
Gilbert CisnerosHouseCA31▲ Buy$50K - $100K2026-05-152026-06-08
Jonathan JacksonHouseIL01▼ Sell$15K - $50K2026-05-122026-06-16
View full congressional trading history →

Discover More

ABCL
AbCellera Biologics Inc.
$12.23
-1.09%
AI
C3.ai Inc.
$11.56
-1.03%
PLTD
GraniteShares 2x Short PLTR Daily ETF
$4.49
+0.90%
ITOT
iShares Core S&P Total U.S. Stock Market ETF
$167.01
-0.20%
NVDA
NVIDIA Corporation
$218.73
-1.25%
GOOG
Alphabet Inc.
$342.48
-0.36%
CRM
Salesforce, Inc.
$235.90
-0.03%
FFIV
F5, Inc.
$454.50
-0.60%
TSLA
Tesla, Inc.
$364.61
-0.73%
PLTR
Palantir Technologies Inc.
$198.50
-1.27%