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APA·APA Corporation

$44.86
-0.60 (-1.32%)
After Hours
High
$45.65
Open
$45.31
Market Cap
15.69B
52W High
$47.50
Low
$43.52
P. Close
$44.86
P/E
9.36
52W Low
$21.63
Fwd P/E
10.27
DailyIQ Est.
$45.99
Inst. Ownership
50.8%
Short Interest
6.94%
Days to Cover
4.5
Technical Score (1D)
68
BUY
News Sentiment
76
BULLISH
APA Corp. just announced a sharp operational shift, slashing its Permian drilling rigs from eight to four while simultaneously lifting its full‑year U.S. oil guidance to 123,000 barrels per day. The company’s Q2 production of 347,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day exceeded internal forecasts, and free cash flow jumped to $738 million, well above the first half of 2026. The cost‑savings target was raised to $500 million annually, and the firm returned $189 million to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases. This combination of higher output, stronger cash flow, and reduced capital spend signals that APA is tightening its focus on high‑margin assets while still betting on growth. The guidance hike comes amid a broader sector rebound, with commodity prices and exploration successes lifting the upstream E&P group’s revenue by 8% in Q2. Management’s emphasis on niche upstream assets and aggressive acquisition activity suggests that APA is positioning itself to capture upside from market downturns and lower‑cost opportunities. Investors should watch for the next earnings release to confirm whether the reduced rig count continues to support the elevated oil forecast and whether the cost‑savings target is met. Additionally, any updates on ESG risk mitigation or regulatory changes in the Permian basin could materially affect the company’s near‑term outlook.
Earnings Summary
APA Corporation, an independent energy producer headquartered in Houston, Texas, focuses on the exploration, development, and extraction of crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids primarily in the United States, Egypt, and the North Sea, while also expanding into Suriname and other international projects. In the most recent quarters, the company posted a Q4 2024 EPS of $0.79 versus an estimate of $0.95, and a Q1 2025 EPS of $1.06 beating the $0.82 forecast; revenue rose from $2.502 billion in Q4 2024 to $2.612 billion in Q1 2025, a 4.4% increase. The following quarter, Q2 2025, saw EPS of $0.87 against a $0.48 estimate, again a beat, while revenue held steady at $2.612 billion, indicating a deceleration in top‑line growth. Q3 2025 revenue fell to $2.018 billion, and EPS of $0.93 beat a $0.79 estimate, reflecting a seasonal dip but strong profitability. In Q4 2025, EPS of $0.91 beat the $0.65 estimate and revenue of $1.978 billion surpassed the $1.876 billion estimate, underscoring a rebound after the lower Q3. The company has consistently outperformed earnings estimates in the last four quarters, with EPS beats in each period, while revenue growth has been mixed, peaking in Q1 2025 and declining in Q3 2025. Historically, APA has shown a YoY revenue growth trajectory that has fluctuated, yet it has maintained a pattern of EPS beats even when revenue dipped, suggesting effective cost control and margin management. Recent news highlights a surge in oil prices above $103 a barrel due to a Saudi pipeline outage, providing a margin boost that lifted APA’s shares and could prompt a guidance revision; the company’s aggressive cost‑reduction program and Suriname pipeline expansion are expected to support future earnings momentum. Investors should watch for the next earnings release to confirm whether the cost cuts and organic growth targets have materialized, monitor any updates on the Suriname pipeline schedule, and keep an eye on commodity price volatility, as these factors will be key to APA’s near‑term earnings trajectory.

EPS

EstBeatMiss
$0.27$0.73$1.19$1.64$2.10Q2'25Q3'25Q4'25Q1'26Q2'26Q3'26
QtrEstActual+/−
Q3'26$1.35 - -
Q2'26$1.89$1.89+0.2%
Q1'26$1.14$1.38+20.9%
Q4'25$0.65$0.91+40.4%
Q3'25$0.79$0.93+17.6%
Q2'25$0.48$0.87+79.5%

Revenue

EstBeatMiss
$1.8B$2.0B$2.2B$2.5B$2.7BQ2'25Q3'25Q4'25Q1'26Q2'26Q3'26
QtrEstActual+/−
Q3'26$2.2B - -
Q2'26$2.5B$2.4B-3.6%
Q1'26$2.2B$2.2B-0.1%
Q4'25$1.9B$2.0B+5.4%
Q3'25 - $2.0B -
Q2'25 - $2.6B -

Market Data

APA Stock Snapshot

BUY68/100
$44.98+$0.12 (0.3%)
Market cap
15.69B
P/E ratio
9.4
Day range
$43.52 – $45.65
News sentiment
76/100 · Bullish
Analyst target
$45.88 (+2.0%)
Consensus
Hold · 32 analysts
52-week range+108.0% off low · -5.3% from high
$21.63$47.50
Price $44.98 DailyIQ Est. $45.99

APA Corporation screens well technically, with price sitting near its 52-week high. Earnings and guidance carry more weight than macro data at this capitalisation.

Behaviour On Record

What APA's own history says about today's numbers

Realized volatility (21d)
40.1% 46th pct
Below its peak
-56.7%
vs 200-day average
+30.9%
Up days (1y)
52%

APA Corporation is currently running 40.1% annualised volatility over the last 21 sessions. Measured against APA's own 13 years of daily returns rather than a market-wide average, that is the 46th percentile close to its own typical level, against a typical reading of 41.7%. The distinction matters because a number that looks calm for one stock is turbulent for another, and the absolute figure on its own tells you neither.

APA is trading -56.7% below its running peak. Across 12 full years on file, its median worst-drawdown-in-a-year was -45.4%, and the deepest was -87.9% in 2020. The current drawdown is already deeper than this stock's typical annual low point, which puts it in the part of its range where past recoveries began — and where past declines also continued.

Price sits +30.9% from its 200-day moving average. Against every other day in its history, that gap ranks at the 90th percentile a wider gap than this stock usually carries. Over the past year APA closed higher on 52% of sessions, and it is currently 1 session into a falling streak.

On September specifically: over 13 years of records, APA finished the month higher 7 of 13 times, with a median return of +1.0% and an average of +0.7%. Its strongest month historically has been April at +14.8% on average, its weakest October at -2.2%. Seasonality is a weak signal on its own — a decade is a small sample and regimes change — but it is a real distribution rather than a rule of thumb.

Overnight risk is measurable too: APA has opened more than 2% away from the prior close in 309 of 3,267 sessions (9.5% of the time), with the largest gaps running +17.0% and -19.4%. For anyone holding through an event, that rate is a better guide to overnight exposure than the intraday range.

Across the last 3 dated reports on file, APA moved an average of 4.4% in the session after earnings, closing higher 2 of those 3 times, with a median move of +3.8% and a largest of +4.9%.

All figures computed from 3,268 daily closes between 2013-09-18 and 2026-09-16, split-adjusted, recomputed daily. Percentiles are against APA's own 13-year history, not a peer group or index.

Sector Rotation

Is money rotating into or out of APA's sector?

APA Corporation sits in the Energy sector, currently ranked 2nd of 11 GICS sectors by relative-strength rotation score (weakening).

Sector rank
#2 of 11
Sector state
Weakening
Sector rotation score
80

Options Market

What is the options market pricing for APA?

CallsPuts

For APA Corporation's nearest expiry (2026-09-18, 0 days out), open interest is call-heavy, a bullish tilt (put/call ratio of 0.55), with at-the-money implied volatility around 12.1%.

Put/call ratio (2026-09-18)
0.55
ATM implied volatility
12.1%
Total open interest
39,768

Analyst Rating Changes

Are analysts turning bullish or bearish on APA?

UBS most recently reiterated its rating on APA Corporation to Neutral on Sep 14, 2026 with a price target of $47 (from $41). Over the last 90 days, coverage has run 2 upgrades against 0 downgrades, a net bullish lean.

Latest action
UBSNeutral
90-day upgrades
2
90-day downgrades
0
Net rating momentum
+2
DateFirmActionRatingPrice target
Sep 14, 2026UBSMaintainedNeutral$41 → $47
Sep 3, 2026Seaport GlobalInitiatedNeutral-
Sep 2, 2026Raymond JamesMaintainedOutperform$50 → $54
Sep 2, 2026Wells FargoMaintainedEqual-Weight$49 → $50
Aug 20, 2026CitigroupMaintainedNeutral$38 → $44
Aug 19, 2026Argus ResearchUpgradeHold → Buy$48
Aug 17, 2026BarclaysMaintainedEqual-Weight$41 → $40
Aug 13, 2026Wells FargoMaintainedEqual-Weight$39 → $49
Aug 12, 2026BenchmarkMaintainedBuy$40 → $46
Aug 11, 2026SusquehannaMaintainedPositive$45 → $47
Aug 10, 2026Truist SecuritiesMaintainedHold$38 → $39
Jul 21, 2026SusquehannaMaintainedPositive$47 → $45

APA Competitive Positioning

APA Corporation (APA) is tracked alongside these names in Oil & Gas E&P on DailyIQ — ranked by market cap, with today's move alongside.