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APG·APi Group Corporation

$37.43
+0.04 (+0.11%)
High
$37.90
Open
$37.73
Market Cap
16.31B
52W High
$51.11
Low
$36.98
P. Close
$37.43
P/E
47.13
52W Low
$33.00
Fwd P/E
18.80
DailyIQ Est.
$53.33
Inst. Ownership
43.0%
Short Interest
2.37%
Days to Cover
4.2
Technical Score (1D)
27
SELL
News Sentiment
69
BULLISH
APi Group’s Q2 2026 earnings call revealed a 13.3 % year‑over‑year revenue rise to $2.25 billion, driven largely by data‑center and specialty‑service sales, and a record backlog that now exceeds $5 billion. The company used the earnings window to lift its full‑year 2026 revenue guidance to $8.88–$9.03 billion and adjusted‑EBITDA outlook, citing a robust acquisition pipeline and the deployment of artificial intelligence to accelerate deal sourcing and integration. This upgrade signals management’s confidence that fragmented markets will continue to offer attractive multiples, and that the company can convert its backlog into higher earnings over the next 10 trading days. The announcement also dovetails with a recent analyst shift: Wells Fargo has initiated coverage with an overweight rating and a $53 target, while Citigroup maintains a buy stance, suggesting that the market is pricing in the upside but remains cautious. In contrast, insider sales totaling roughly $14 million in the past week may hint at a short‑term liquidity squeeze, though the volume is modest relative to the company’s market cap and could simply reflect portfolio rebalancing. Traders should watch for any subsequent commentary on the pace of bolt‑on closings and AI‑driven integration progress, as these factors will determine whether the guidance lift translates into sustained margin expansion. Additionally, monitoring data‑center demand trends will be key, since the backlog’s conversion hinges on continued infrastructure spending. Finally, keep an eye on analyst consensus updates over the next few days, as any shift in target prices could alter short‑term sentiment.
Earnings Summary
APi Group Corporation (APG) is a global provider of safety and specialty services, delivering integrated occupancy systems such as fire protection, HVAC, and entry solutions, alongside infrastructure maintenance for utilities and industrial plants, serving commercial, healthcare, industrial, and government sectors. Operating within the industrial engineering and construction space, APG’s business model blends project‑based work with a growing emphasis on recurring service contracts, positioning it to capture stable cash flows amid rising infrastructure demand. In the most recent quarter, Q4 2025, APG reported EPS of $0.44 versus an estimate of $0.4176, and revenue of $2.117 billion against a $2.112 billion estimate, marking a modest EPS beat and a slight revenue outperformance. Compared to Q4 2024, EPS grew from $0.34 to $0.44 (≈29%) while revenue rose from $1.861 billion to $2.117 billion (≈14%). The company has consistently beaten earnings estimates in the last three quarters, with EPS exceeding forecasts in Q4 2024, Q4 2025, and Q2 2026, and revenue surpassing estimates in Q4 2025 and Q2 2026. Historically, APG has shown a steady YoY revenue growth trajectory, with a 13.3% increase in Q2 2026 to $2.254 billion and a record backlog over $5 billion, indicating robust demand. While EPS has generally outpaced analyst expectations, the company has occasionally missed revenue estimates, suggesting that revenue growth remains a key focus even as earnings remain resilient. Recent news highlights APG’s strategic shift toward higher‑margin recurring contracts, an upgrade to a “Buy” rating, and a 2026 revenue guidance lift to $8.88‑$9.03 billion, underscoring confidence in infrastructure spending. The CEO’s emphasis on product portfolio expansion, supply‑chain resilience, and selective acquisitions signals a continued focus on operational efficiency and market capture. Investors should watch the pace of backlog conversion, the execution of the AI‑driven deal‑sourcing initiative, and any new acquisition announcements in the next quarter, as these factors will determine whether the higher guidance translates into sustained earnings momentum and margin expansion.

EPS

EstBeatMiss
$0.31$0.36$0.40$0.45$0.49Q4'24Q4'25Q2'26Q3'26
QtrEstActual+/−
Q3'26$0.47 - -
Q2'26$0.44$0.44+0.3%
Q4'25$0.42$0.44+5.4%
Q4'24$0.33$0.34+2.6%

Revenue

EstBeatMiss
$1.8B$2.0B$2.1B$2.3B$2.5BQ4'24Q4'25Q2'26Q3'26
QtrEstActual+/−
Q3'26$2.4B - -
Q2'26$2.2B$2.3B+1.2%
Q4'25$2.1B$2.1B+0.2%
Q4'24 - $1.9B -
Full Earnings BreakdownEstimates, actuals, guidance, and historical context
→

Market Data

APG Stock Snapshot

SELL27/100
$37.43+$0.04 (0.1%)
Market cap
16.31B
P/E ratio
47.1
Day range
$36.98 – $37.90
News sentiment
69/100 · Bullish
Analyst target
$52.36 (+39.9%)
Consensus
Buy · 17 analysts
52-week range+13.4% off low · -26.8% from high
$33.00$51.11
Price $37.43 DailyIQ Est. $53.33

The signals on APG lean bearish, and the range position backs that up. Institutional coverage is thorough here, so shifts in analyst expectations show up in price quickly.

Reverse DCF

What growth is priced into APG?

CHEAP

At today's price, APi Group Corporation needs to grow free cash flow about 15.9% a year for the next 10 years to justify its valuation at a 9.01% cost of capital. Over its actual history it has compounded free cash flow at 37.9% a year, so the market is asking for 22.0 percentage points below its own delivered rate. On that basis APG looks priced below what its own growth record supports.

Implied FCF growth
15.9%
Historical FCF CAGR
37.9%
Growth gap
-22.0 pts
Verdict
CHEAP
Discount rate (WACC)
9.01%
Beta
0.99

Behaviour On Record

What APG's own history says about today's numbers

Realized volatility (21d)
31.8% 43rd pct
Below its peak
-26.0%
vs 200-day average
-10.9%
Up days (1y)
52%

APi Group Corporation is currently running 31.8% annualised volatility over the last 21 sessions. Measured against APG's own 7 years of daily returns rather than a market-wide average, that is the 43rd percentile — close to its own typical level, against a typical reading of 33.5%. The distinction matters because a number that looks calm for one stock is turbulent for another, and the absolute figure on its own tells you neither.

APG is trading -26.0% below its running peak. Across 6 full years on file, its median worst-drawdown-in-a-year was -22.0%, and the deepest was -62.2% in 2020. The current drawdown is already deeper than this stock's typical annual low point, which puts it in the part of its range where past recoveries began — and where past declines also continued.

Price sits -10.9% from its 200-day moving average. Against every other day in its history, that gap ranks at the 9th percentile — a narrower gap than it typically runs. Over the past year APG closed higher on 52% of sessions, and it is currently 1 session into a falling streak.

On September specifically: over 7 years of records, APG finished the month higher 0 of 7 times, with a median return of -4.5% and an average of -6.3%. Its strongest month historically has been November at +10.4% on average, its weakest September at -6.3%. Seasonality is a weak signal on its own — a decade is a small sample and regimes change — but it is a real distribution rather than a rule of thumb.

Overnight risk is measurable too: APG has opened more than 2% away from the prior close in 179 of 1,711 sessions (10.5% of the time), with the largest gaps running +18.4% and -13.8%. For anyone holding through an event, that rate is a better guide to overnight exposure than the intraday range.

All figures computed from 1,712 daily closes between 2019-11-26 and 2026-09-21, split-adjusted, recomputed daily. Percentiles are against APG's own 7-year history, not a peer group or index.

Sector Rotation

Is money rotating into or out of APG's sector?

APi Group Corporation sits in the Industrials sector, currently ranked 9th of 11 GICS sectors by relative-strength rotation score (lagging).

Sector rank
#9 of 11
Sector state
Lagging
Sector rotation score
50

Options Market

What is the options market pricing for APG?

CallsPuts

For APi Group Corporation's nearest expiry (2026-10-16, 25 days out), open interest is put-heavy, a defensive/bearish tilt (put/call ratio of 27.37), with at-the-money implied volatility around 65.3%. The options market is pricing roughly a ±17.2% move by that expiry — a range of about $30.99–$43.83.

Put/call ratio (2026-10-16)
27.37
ATM implied volatility
65.3%
Total open interest
10,723
Expected move by 2026-10-16
±17.2% ($30.99–$43.83)

Analyst Rating Changes

Are analysts turning bullish or bearish on APG?

Wells Fargo most recently initiated coverage on APi Group Corporation to Overweight on Aug 4, 2026 with a price target of $53. Over the last 90 days, coverage has run 0 upgrades against 0 downgrades, a net mixed lean.

Latest action
Wells Fargo — Overweight
90-day upgrades
0
90-day downgrades
0
Net rating momentum
0
DateFirmActionRatingPrice target
Aug 4, 2026Wells FargoInitiatedOverweight$53
Jul 31, 2026CitigroupMaintainedBuy$53 → $54
May 7, 2026BarclaysMaintainedOverweight$52 → $54
May 1, 2026UBSMaintainedBuy$54 → $56
May 1, 2026CitigroupMaintainedBuy$52 → $53
May 1, 2026Truist SecuritiesMaintainedBuy$53 → $55
Feb 26, 2026CitigroupMaintainedBuy$49 → $52
Feb 26, 2026UBSMaintainedBuy$49 → $54
Feb 26, 2026RBC CapitalMaintainedOutperform$45 → $53
Feb 26, 2026BarclaysMaintainedOverweight$44 → $52
Feb 26, 2026Truist SecuritiesMaintainedBuy$50 → $53
Jan 21, 2026Truist SecuritiesMaintainedBuy$41 → $50

APG Competitive Positioning

APi Group Corporation (APG) is tracked alongside these names in Engineering & Construction on DailyIQ — ranked by market cap, with today's move alongside.

Held by These ETFs

APG is a top holding in these ETFs tracked on DailyIQ — bar length shows portfolio weight.