CNQ·Canadian Natural Resources Limited

Realized volatility (21d)

23.5% 18th pct

Below its peak

-7.1%

vs 200-day average

+9.7%

Up days (1y)

56%

Canadian Natural Resources Limited is currently running 23.5% annualised volatility over the last 21 sessions. Measured against CNQ's own 13 years of daily returns rather than a market-wide average, that is the 18th percentile — unusually subdued by its own history, against a typical reading of 31.9%. The distinction matters because a number that looks calm for one stock is turbulent for another, and the absolute figure on its own tells you neither.

CNQ is trading -7.1% below its running peak. Across 12 full years on file, its median worst-drawdown-in-a-year was -28.1%, and the deepest was -76.5% in 2020. The current pullback is therefore shallower than what this stock gives back in a typical year, which is context worth having before treating it as a dislocation.

Price sits +9.7% from its 200-day moving average. Against every other day in its history, that gap ranks at the 68th percentile — a somewhat wider gap than its own norm. Over the past year CNQ closed higher on 56% of sessions, and it is currently 1 session into a falling streak.

On October specifically: over 13 years of records, CNQ finished the month higher 7 of 13 times, with a median return of +0.1% and an average of +2.2%. Its strongest month historically has been April at +5.3% on average, its weakest September at -2.6%. Seasonality is a weak signal on its own — a decade is a small sample and regimes change — but it is a real distribution rather than a rule of thumb.

Overnight risk is measurable too: CNQ has opened more than 2% away from the prior close in 324 of 3,267 sessions (9.9% of the time), with the largest gaps running +21.8% and -20.8%. For anyone holding through an event, that rate is a better guide to overnight exposure than the intraday range.

All figures computed from 3,268 daily closes between 2013-10-07 and 2026-10-05, split-adjusted, recomputed daily. Percentiles are against CNQ's own 13-year history, not a peer group or index.