DailyIQ
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Sector:Consumer CyclicalAll sectors
Last updated1 minute ago

CVNA·Carvana Co.

$57.22
-3.17 (-5.25%)
High
$60.75
Open
$59.23
Market Cap
65.30B
52W High
$97.38
Low
$56.46
P. Close
$57.22
P/E
41.65
52W Low
$52.40
Fwd P/E
26.61
DailyIQ Est.
$86.74
Inst. Ownership
27.5%
Short Interest
6.27%
Days to Cover
7.9
Technical Score (1D)
36
BEARISH
News Sentiment
50
MIXED
On Oct 13, Carvana added inspection and reconditioning capabilities to its ADESA Orlando auction site in Sanford, Florida, expanding its operational footprint. The move followed a period of mixed equity performance, with the stock showing short‑term weakness but a strong long‑term shareholder return. Analysts reported that the new Orlando hub could serve as a catalyst for future upside, though the immediate market impact remained uncertain. On Oct 12, Thomas Taira, President of Special Projects at Carvana, sold 5,597 Class A shares for $363,805, as disclosed in a Form 4 filing. The sale reduced his direct holdings to 357,442 shares, a modest portion of the company’s total shares. The transaction may influence investor sentiment, but the filing indicated no immediate operational or financial impact.
LOW TARGET
$60 +4.9%
2 analysts
MEAN TARGET
$82 +43.8%
14 analysts
HIGH TARGET
$120 +109.7%
18 analysts
PRICE RANGE
$60.00 - $120.00
SB / B / H / S / SS
10/12/10/1/1
DAILYIQ EST.
$86.74 (+51.6%)
Sector
Consumer Cyclical
Industry
Auto & Truck Dealerships
Exchange
NYQ
Country
United States
Website
carvana.com
Symbol
CVNA
Description
Carvana Co. provides a digital marketplace for used car transactions across the United States. The company's core business centers on facilitating the entire vehicle lifecycle, encompassing acquisition, meticulous inspection and reconditioning, and an intuitive online shopping experience. Carvana differentiates itself by offering in-house financing options, ancillary product offerings, and a proprietary logistics network to streamline fulfillment. Post-sale customer support is also a key component of their service. Established in 2012 and headquartered in Tempe, Arizona, Carvana's platform also includes auction sites.
Bought (1Y)
25,005 shares
$1.5M
Sold (1Y)
853,157 shares
$58.1M
Taira ThomasPresident, Special Projects
Sell5,597 shares2026-10-12
Taira ThomasPresident, Special Projects
Tax Withholding3,948 shares2026-10-01
GILL DANIEL J.Chief Product Officer
Tax Withholding7,707 shares2026-10-01
JENKINS MARK W.Chief Financial Officer
Option Exercise3,750 shares2026-10-01
JENKINS MARK W.Chief Financial Officer
Option Exercise10,000 shares2026-10-01
View full insider trading history →
81/ 100
Bullish
Overall: Bullish
✓Revenue growing year over year
✓Positive net margin
✓Positive operating cash flow
Gross Margin
20.6%
Net Margin
6.9%
Revenue CAGR
65.7%
Current Ratio
4.31x
Debt / Equity
1.46x
Return on Equity
40.9%
View full financials →
Earnings Summary
Carvana Co. operates a digital marketplace for used car transactions, offering end‑to‑end vehicle lifecycle services and in‑house financing across the United States, positioning it within the consumer cyclical auto dealership sector. In Q4 2025 Carvana posted EPS of $4.22 versus an estimate of $1.13, a 373% beat, and revenue of $5.60 billion against a $5.36 billion estimate, marking a 4.4% YoY increase; the prior quarter (Q4 2024) saw EPS of $0.58 versus a $0.25 estimate and revenue of $3.55 billion, a 9.6% YoY rise. The company has consistently outperformed earnings estimates in the last four quarters, with EPS beats in each period and revenue growth exceeding analyst expectations in three of those quarters. Recent news highlights a reaffirmed Buy rating from BTIG citing improved liquidity and cost‑control, suggesting market confidence amid current headwinds; no material operational changes were reported.

EPS

EstBeatMiss
$-0.34$0.95$2.24$3.53$4.81Q4'24Q4'25Q2'26Q3'26
QtrEstActual+/−
Q3'26$0.47 - -
Q2'26$0.41$0.42+2.6%
Q4'25$1.13$4.22+274.4%
Q4'24$0.25$0.58+128.5%

Revenue

EstBeatMiss
$2.9B$4.3B$5.7B$7.0B$8.4BQ4'24Q4'25Q2'26Q3'26
QtrEstActual+/−
Q3'26$7.8B - -
Q2'26$7.0B$7.4B+4.8%
Q4'25$5.4B$5.6B+4.5%
Q4'24 - $3.5B -
Full Earnings BreakdownEstimates, actuals, guidance, and historical context
→

Market Data

CVNA Stock Snapshot

NEUTRAL36/100
$57.22−$3.17 (5.2%)
Market cap
65.30B
P/E ratio
41.6
Day range
$56.46 – $60.75
News sentiment
50/100 · Neutral
Analyst target
$82.29 (+43.8%)
Consensus
Buy · 34 analysts
52-week range+9.2% off low · -41.2% from high
$52.40$97.38
Price $57.22 DailyIQ Est. $86.74

Neither side has the upper hand on CVNA right now, and its momentum ranks near the middle of DailyIQ's universe. Earnings and guidance carry more weight than macro data at this capitalisation.

Reverse DCF

What growth is priced into CVNA?

RICH

At today's price, Carvana Co. needs to grow free cash flow about 66.2% a year for the next 10 years to justify its valuation at a 14.23% cost of capital. Over its actual history it has compounded free cash flow at 11.4% a year, so the market is asking for 54.8 percentage points above its own delivered rate. On that basis CVNA looks priced above what its own growth record supports.

Implied FCF growth
66.2%
Historical FCF CAGR
11.4%
Growth gap
+54.8 pts
Verdict
RICH
Discount rate (WACC)
14.23%
Beta
1.88

Behaviour On Record

What CVNA's own history says about today's numbers

Realized volatility (21d)
42.4% 11th pct
Below its peak
-36.9%
vs 200-day average
-14.6%
Up days (1y)
53%

Carvana Co. is currently running 42.4% annualised volatility over the last 21 sessions. Measured against CVNA's own 9 years of daily returns rather than a market-wide average, that is the 11th percentile — unusually subdued by its own history, against a typical reading of 68.5%. The distinction matters because a number that looks calm for one stock is turbulent for another, and the absolute figure on its own tells you neither.

CVNA is trading -36.9% below its running peak. Across 8 full years on file, its median worst-drawdown-in-a-year was -50.0%, and the deepest was -98.5% in 2022. The current pullback is therefore shallower than what this stock gives back in a typical year, which is context worth having before treating it as a dislocation.

Price sits -14.6% from its 200-day moving average. Against every other day in its history, that gap ranks at the 20th percentile — a narrower gap than it typically runs. Over the past year CVNA closed higher on 53% of sessions, and it is currently 2 sessions into a rising streak.

On October specifically: over 10 years of records, CVNA finished the month higher 3 of 10 times, with a median return of -15.6% and an average of -9.3%. Its strongest month historically has been June at +28.8% on average, its weakest September at -9.5%. Seasonality is a weak signal on its own — a decade is a small sample and regimes change — but it is a real distribution rather than a rule of thumb.

Overnight risk is measurable too: CVNA has opened more than 2% away from the prior close in 260 of 2,377 sessions (10.9% of the time), with the largest gaps running +59.6% and -13.6%. For anyone holding through an event, that rate is a better guide to overnight exposure than the intraday range.

All figures computed from 2,378 daily closes between 2017-04-28 and 2026-10-14, split-adjusted, recomputed daily. Percentiles are against CVNA's own 10-year history, not a peer group or index.

Sector Rotation

Is money rotating into or out of CVNA's sector?

Carvana Co. sits in the Consumer Discretionary sector, currently ranked 7th of 12 GICS sectors by relative-strength rotation score (improving). Within its narrower Retail industry group, CVNA ranks 4th of 15 tracked industries, improving.

Sector rank
#7 of 12
Sector state
Improving
Sector rotation score
64
Industry rank
#4 of 15

Options Market

What is the options market pricing for CVNA?

CallsPuts

For Carvana Co.'s nearest expiry (2026-10-16, 2 days out), open interest is put-heavy, a defensive/bearish tilt (put/call ratio of 2.22), with at-the-money implied volatility around 58.6%. The options market is pricing roughly a ±5.0% move by that expiry — a range of about $54.15–$59.85.

Put/call ratio (2026-10-16)
2.22
ATM implied volatility
58.6%
Total open interest
86,179
Expected move by 2026-10-16
±5.0% ($54.15–$59.85)

Analyst Rating Changes

Are analysts turning bullish or bearish on CVNA?

BTIG most recently reiterated its rating on Carvana Co. to Buy on Oct 9, 2026 with a price target of $87. Over the last 90 days, coverage has run 0 upgrades against 0 downgrades, a net mixed lean.

Latest action
BTIG — Buy
90-day upgrades
0
90-day downgrades
0
Net rating momentum
0
DateFirmActionRatingPrice target
Oct 9, 2026BTIGReiteratedBuy$87
Oct 6, 2026Stephens & Co.MaintainedOverweight$92 → $83
Oct 6, 2026BarclaysMaintainedOverweight$93 → $80
Sep 30, 2026OppenheimerMaintainedOutperform$450 → $90
Aug 4, 2026BTIGReiteratedBuy$87
Jul 31, 2026CitigroupMaintainedBuy$93 → $90
Jul 31, 2026BarclaysMaintainedOverweight$94 → $93
Jul 30, 2026BNP ParibasMaintainedNeutral$86 → $69
Jul 30, 2026RBC CapitalMaintainedOutperform$85 → $82
Jul 30, 2026Evercore ISI GroupMaintainedIn-Line$86 → $75
Jul 30, 2026CitizensMaintainedMarket Outperform$103 → $83
Jul 30, 2026Wells FargoMaintainedOverweight$85 → $80

Peers & ETF holders

CVNA peers & ETF holders

Auto & Truck DealershipsMarket cap · today

Top ETF holdersWeight

News Sentiment Analysis

Sentiment gathered from recent headlines

50/100
Strong NegativeNeutralStrong Positive
MIXED

Recent News Coverage

Most recent articles, ranked by recency (click to expand).

10+ articles
What did this article say?
On October 12, 2026, Thomas Taira, President of Special Projects at Carvana, sold 5,597 Class A shares for $363,805, as disclosed in a Form 4 filing. The transaction reduced his direct holdings to 357,442 shares, leaving him with a significant stake but a notable divestiture. The sale may signal a short‑term liquidity need or a shift in confidence, though the volume represents a modest portion of the company’s total shares. The filing does not indicate any immediate operational or financial impact, but it could influence investor perception of insider sentiment.
What did this article say?
Carvana (CVNA) added inspection and reconditioning capabilities to its ADESA Orlando auction site in Sanford, Florida, expanding its IRC footprint. The move is intended to enhance operational scale and improve vehicle quality before sale. While the stock had recently shown short‑term weakness, the expansion signals a long‑term commitment to improving margins and inventory turnover. The development is viewed as a modest tailwind for the company’s growth strategy.
What did this article say?
Carvana (CVNA) closed the session at $60.39, up 1.48% while the S&P 500 fell 0.02%. The company’s stock has declined 16.03% over the past month, lagging the Retail‑Wholesale sector and the broader index. Analysts anticipate earnings of $0.49 per share on October 28, 2026, a 133% year‑over‑year increase, and revenue of $7.62 billion, up 35% from the prior quarter. The consensus also projects annual earnings of $1.67 per share and revenue of $28.97 billion, a 43% rise. Market participants are closely monitoring these forecasts as the earnings release approaches.
What did this article say?
BTIG analyst Marvin Fong reaffirmed a Buy rating for Carvana (CVNA) and maintained its $87 price target. The firm cited the company’s improving liquidity profile and ongoing cost‑control initiatives as key drivers. The recommendation signals confidence in Carvana’s ability to navigate current market headwinds and continue delivering value to shareholders.
What did this article say?
On October 7, Carvana (CVNA) closed at $62.76, down 1.75% from the previous day. The decline was sharper than the S&P 500’s 0.22% loss and the Nasdaq’s 0.22% drop, while the Dow fell 0.66%. Before the session, CVNA shares had dropped 14.51% year‑to‑date, trailing the Retail‑Wholesale sector’s 3.19% loss and the S&P 500’s 1.4% gain. The market is watching the upcoming earnings release on October 28, 2026, where analysts project earnings of $0.49 per share and revenue of $7.62 billion for the quarter.
What did this article say?
Carvana announced it would add Inspection and Reconditioning Center capabilities to its ADESA Orlando wholesale auction site, creating about 100 new jobs and expanding reconditioning capacity. The move increases inventory for retail customers nationwide and enables more vehicles to qualify for same‑day delivery in Central Florida. The expansion is intended to strengthen Carvana’s local wholesale offering and improve delivery speed for both retail and wholesale clients.
What did this article say?
Analyst firm Stephens reduced its price target for Carvana (CVNA) from $91.50 to $83 while keeping an overweight rating. The adjustment reflects a reassessment of the company’s valuation, suggesting a more cautious outlook on future earnings. The downgrade in target price indicates a modest negative impact on investor sentiment, though the rating remains positive.
What did this article say?
Stephens & Co. analyst Jeff Lick reduced Carvana’s price target from $91.5 to $83 while keeping an Overweight rating. The downgrade reflects concerns over the company’s valuation relative to peers and its ability to sustain growth. The move signals a more cautious view on Carvana’s near‑term prospects.
What did this article say?
Barclays analyst John Babcock reduced Carvana’s price target from $93 to $80 while keeping an Overweight stance. The downgrade reflects concerns over the company’s valuation relative to peers and its ability to sustain growth momentum. The move signals a more cautious outlook for investors, potentially impacting short‑term sentiment. The rating remains unchanged, indicating Barclays still sees upside but at a lower level.

Technical Analysis

Real-time indicators across multiple timeframes

36
BEARISH
Momentum rank against about 1,000 stocks and ETFs for this timeframe.
Unlock full technicals
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Institutional & Hedge Fund Ownership
25 tracked managers · $25.13B combined position · 15 adding, 10 trimming, 0 unchanged (latest 13F filings)
ManagerTrendShares Held% of Co.Position ValueFiled
Vanguard Group Inc▲ Buy16,783,1011.56%$7.08B2026-01-29
Capital Research Global Investors▲ Buy63,423,3865.90%$4.17B2026-08-12
BlackRock, Inc.▼ Sell48,494,9104.51%$3.19B2026-08-07
FMR LLC (Fidelity)▼ Sell33,604,7083.13%$2.21B2026-08-13
Geode Capital Management, LLC▼ Sell16,653,3491.55%$1.09B2026-08-12
Capital World Investors▲ Buy14,200,2581.32%$934.66M2026-08-12
Viking Global Investors LP▼ Sell12,322,3111.15%$811.05M2026-08-14
Lone Pine Capital LLC▲ Buy10,520,6660.98%$692.47M2026-08-14
JPMorgan Chase & Co▼ Sell8,617,4360.80%$549.10M2026-08-12
Invesco Ltd.▲ Buy7,616,8530.71%$501.34M2026-08-14
Morgan Stanley▼ Sell6,370,3680.59%$419.30M2026-08-13
Northern Trust Corp▲ Buy6,168,9230.57%$406.04M2026-08-13
Norges Bank▲ Buy5,243,4940.49%$345.13M2026-08-12
Renaissance Technologies LLC▼ Sell5,122,4500.48%$337.16M2026-08-13
Sachem Head Capital Management LP▲ Buy4,475,0000.42%$294.54M2026-08-14
Whale Rock Capital Management LLC▼ Sell4,267,0800.40%$280.86M2026-08-14
D1 Capital Partners L.P.▲ Buy3,779,5170.35%$248.77M2026-08-14
AllianceBernstein L.P.▲ Buy781,9580.07%$245.83M2026-08-14
Wells Fargo & Company▼ Sell3,608,8540.34%$237.53M2026-08-14
Goldman Sachs Group Inc▲ Buy3,412,5650.32%$224.62M2026-08-14
Coatue Management LLC▼ Sell3,278,8650.31%$215.81M2026-08-14
Maverick Capital Ltd▲ Buy2,638,6730.25%$173.68M2026-08-14
Marshall Wace, LLP▲ Buy2,626,1040.24%$172.85M2026-08-13
Citigroup Inc▲ Buy2,185,4800.20%$143.85M2026-08-03
Millennium Management LLC▲ Buy2,093,0720.19%$137.77M2026-08-14
Q2 2026 flow:20.99M sh bought ($1.38B)23.09M sh sold ($1.51B)net -2.10M sh (−$127.30M)
View full institutional holdings history →
Congressional Trading Activity
4 disclosed trades · ~$32.0K est. traded value · 2 buys, 2 sells
MemberChamberStateTypeAmountTradedFiled
Gilbert CisnerosHouseCA31▼ Sell$1K - $15K2026-05-152026-06-08
Gilbert CisnerosHouseCA31▲ Buy$1K - $15K2026-04-142026-05-08
Josh GottheimerHouseNJ05▼ Sell$1K - $15K2026-02-182026-03-16
Josh GottheimerHouseNJ05▲ Buy$1K - $15K2025-06-202025-07-16
View full congressional trading history →

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