RCL·Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd.

Realized volatility (21d)

44.0% 75th pct

Below its peak

-22.9%

vs 200-day average

-1.8%

Up days (1y)

45%

Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. is currently running 44.0% annualised volatility over the last 21 sessions. Measured against RCL's own 13 years of daily returns rather than a market-wide average, that is the 75th percentile — a little above its own norm, against a typical reading of 32.6%. The distinction matters because a number that looks calm for one stock is turbulent for another, and the absolute figure on its own tells you neither.

RCL is trading -22.9% below its running peak. Across 12 full years on file, its median worst-drawdown-in-a-year was -29.5%, and the deepest was -83.3% in 2020. The current pullback is therefore shallower than what this stock gives back in a typical year, which is context worth having before treating it as a dislocation.

Price sits -1.8% from its 200-day moving average. Against every other day in its history, that gap ranks at the 32nd percentile — close to the gap it normally carries. Over the past year RCL closed higher on 45% of sessions, and it is currently 1 session into a rising streak.

On October specifically: over 13 years of records, RCL finished the month higher 8 of 13 times, with a median return of +3.9% and an average of +3.4%. Its strongest month historically has been November at +8.2% on average, its weakest March at -4.5%. Seasonality is a weak signal on its own — a decade is a small sample and regimes change — but it is a real distribution rather than a rule of thumb.

Overnight risk is measurable too: RCL has opened more than 2% away from the prior close in 171 of 3,267 sessions (5.2% of the time), with the largest gaps running +10.0% and -9.4%. For anyone holding through an event, that rate is a better guide to overnight exposure than the intraday range.

Across the last 3 dated reports on file, RCL moved an average of 2.5% in the session after earnings, closing higher 2 of those 3 times, with a median move of +0.5% and a largest of -5.8%.

All figures computed from 3,268 daily closes between 2013-10-15 and 2026-10-13, split-adjusted, recomputed daily. Percentiles are against RCL's own 13-year history, not a peer group or index.