DailyIQ
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Sector:Consumer CyclicalAll sectors
Last updated1 minute ago

BURL·Burlington Stores, Inc.

$227.07
-5.17 (-2.23%)
High
$234.50
Open
$233.75
Market Cap
15.02B
52W High
$378.33
Low
$226.87
P. Close
$227.07
P/E
21.02
52W Low
$231.88
Fwd P/E
17.06
DailyIQ Est.
$377.89
Inst. Ownership
-
Short Interest
3.00%
Days to Cover
1.1
Technical Score (1D)
5
SELL
News Sentiment
32
BEARISH
Burlington’s most recent analyst updates show a modest negative tilt as Goldman Sachs and Deutsche Bank cut their price targets to $382 and $323, respectively, citing concerns about near‑term margin pressure and slower growth expectations. The cuts are likely to dampen short‑term sentiment, but the company’s own guidance remains unchanged, so the immediate market impact may be limited to a slight pullback in trading volume. In contrast, Wells Fargo has lifted its target to $370, reflecting confidence in Burlington’s long‑term positioning and its ability to sustain earnings growth through cost control and inventory management. The divergent views underscore uncertainty about whether the retailer can maintain its recent earnings beat amid rising input costs and competitive pricing pressure. Burlington’s Q2 results, with 11 % sales growth and a 38 % jump in adjusted EPS to $2.37, provide a solid backdrop for the near‑term outlook, but the company’s cautious Q3 guidance has prompted several analysts to trim their targets. This suggests that while the business model remains fundamentally sound, investors should monitor how the company navigates margin compression and whether the pricing strategy—particularly the reinvestment of the $55 million tariff refund into lower merchandise prices—translates into sustained comparable‑sales growth. Over the next 1–10 trading days, watch for any further guidance revisions that could clarify the balance between aggressive store expansion and cost‑control initiatives, as well as any signs of inventory build‑up that might signal future margin tightening.
Earnings Summary
Burlington Stores, Inc. operates as a value‑oriented off‑price retailer offering branded apparel, footwear, accessories, and home goods across the United States and Puerto Rico, positioning it within the consumer cyclical apparel retail sector. In Q4 2024 the company reported adjusted earnings per share of $4.07, surpassing the $3.77 estimate, while revenue reached $3.277 billion, reflecting a solid top‑line performance amid a 38% year‑over‑year sales increase noted in recent earnings releases. Compared to Q2 2027, where EPS of $2.96 beat the $2.21 estimate and revenue of $2.998 billion fell short of the $3.094 billion estimate, the retailer shows a deceleration in revenue growth but maintains an EPS beat pattern, having exceeded analyst expectations in three of the last four quarters. Historically, Burlington has delivered consistent EPS growth year‑over‑year, with recent guidance tightening revenue outlook slightly while raising full‑year adjusted EPS to $11.77‑$11.97, indicating confidence in profitability despite modest comparable‑sales growth. Recent analyst activity has introduced a mixed sentiment: Goldman Sachs and Deutsche Bank lowered targets, whereas Wells Fargo raised its outlook, reflecting uncertainty around near‑term earnings and margin pressure. Investors should watch the next earnings release for clarity on whether the tariff‑refund‑driven price cuts translate into comparable‑sales lift and whether inventory levels and cannibalization from new store openings remain under control, as these factors will determine the sustainability of margin gains and the company’s ability to support its aggressive store‑expansion program. The market will also monitor any updates on supply‑chain or inventory management that could influence the retailer’s earnings trajectory in the coming quarter.

EPS

EstBeatMiss
$1.83$2.65$3.47$4.30$5.12Q4'24Q2'27Q1'27
QtrEstActual+/−
Q1'27$4.74 - -
Q2'27$2.21$2.96+34.0%
Q4'24$3.77$4.07+8.0%

Revenue

EstBeatMiss
$2.9B$3.1B$3.3B$3.5B$3.7BQ4'24Q2'27Q1'27
QtrEstActual+/−
Q1'27$3.6B - -
Q2'27$3.1B$3.0B-3.1%
Q4'24 - $3.3B -
Full Earnings BreakdownEstimates, actuals, guidance, and historical context
→

Market Data

BURL Stock Snapshot

SELL5/100
$227.07−$5.17 (2.2%)
Market cap
15.02B
P/E ratio
21.0
Day range
$226.87 – $234.50
News sentiment
32/100 · Bearish
Analyst target
$364.75 (+60.6%)
Consensus
Buy · 28 analysts
52-week range-2.1% off low · -40.0% from high
$231.88$378.33
Price $227.07 DailyIQ Est. $377.89

The trend on BURL is bearish, and the indicator set is confirming it rather than diverging. Institutional coverage is thorough here, so shifts in analyst expectations show up in price quickly.

Reverse DCF

What growth is priced into BURL?

RICH

At today's price, Burlington Stores, Inc. needs to grow free cash flow about 47.1% a year for the next 10 years to justify its valuation at a 8.81% cost of capital. Over its actual history it has compounded free cash flow at 6.1% a year, so the market is asking for 40.9 percentage points above its own delivered rate. On that basis BURL looks priced above what its own growth record supports.

Implied FCF growth
47.1%
Historical FCF CAGR
6.1%
Growth gap
+40.9 pts
Verdict
RICH
Discount rate (WACC)
8.81%
Beta
0.94

Behaviour On Record

What BURL's own history says about today's numbers

Realized volatility (21d)
43.3% 76th pct
Below its peak
-38.6%
vs 200-day average
-26.6%
Up days (1y)
49%

Burlington Stores, Inc. is currently running 43.3% annualised volatility over the last 21 sessions. Measured against BURL's own 13 years of daily returns rather than a market-wide average, that is the 76th percentile — elevated for this stock, against a typical reading of 31.6%. The distinction matters because a number that looks calm for one stock is turbulent for another, and the absolute figure on its own tells you neither.

BURL is trading -38.6% below its running peak. Across 12 full years on file, its median worst-drawdown-in-a-year was -25.6%, and the deepest was -62.0% in 2022. The current drawdown is already deeper than this stock's typical annual low point, which puts it in the part of its range where past recoveries began — and where past declines also continued.

Price sits -26.6% from its 200-day moving average. Against every other day in its history, that gap ranks at the 6th percentile — a narrower gap than it typically runs. Over the past year BURL closed higher on 49% of sessions, and it is currently 6 sessions into a falling streak.

On September specifically: over 13 years of records, BURL finished the month higher 3 of 13 times, with a median return of -4.0% and an average of -5.0%. Its strongest month historically has been November at +12.0% on average, its weakest September at -5.0%. Seasonality is a weak signal on its own — a decade is a small sample and regimes change — but it is a real distribution rather than a rule of thumb.

Overnight risk is measurable too: BURL has opened more than 2% away from the prior close in 187 of 3,256 sessions (5.7% of the time), with the largest gaps running +10.8% and -14.6%. For anyone holding through an event, that rate is a better guide to overnight exposure than the intraday range.

All figures computed from 3,257 daily closes between 2013-10-02 and 2026-09-15, split-adjusted, recomputed daily. Percentiles are against BURL's own 13-year history, not a peer group or index.

Sector Rotation

Is money rotating into or out of BURL's sector?

Burlington Stores, Inc. sits in the Consumer Discretionary sector, currently ranked 9th of 11 GICS sectors by relative-strength rotation score (lagging). Within its narrower Retail industry group, BURL ranks 8th of 15 tracked industries, lagging.

Sector rank
#9 of 11
Sector state
Lagging
Sector rotation score
20
Industry rank
#8 of 15

Options Market

What is the options market pricing for BURL?

CallsPuts

For Burlington Stores, Inc.'s nearest expiry (2026-09-18, 3 days out), open interest is put-heavy, a defensive/bearish tilt (put/call ratio of 5.56), with at-the-money implied volatility around 43.6%. The options market is pricing roughly a ±4.3% move by that expiry — a range of about $217.92–$237.60.

Put/call ratio (2026-09-18)
5.56
ATM implied volatility
43.6%
Total open interest
6,443
Expected move by 2026-09-18
±4.3% ($217.92–$237.60)

Analyst Rating Changes

Are analysts turning bullish or bearish on BURL?

Goldman Sachs most recently reiterated its rating on Burlington Stores, Inc. to Buy on Aug 31, 2026 with a price target of $382 (from $394). Over the last 90 days, coverage has run 0 upgrades against 1 downgrade, a net bearish lean.

Latest action
Goldman Sachs — Buy
90-day upgrades
0
90-day downgrades
1
Net rating momentum
-1
DateFirmActionRatingPrice target
Aug 31, 2026Goldman SachsMaintainedBuy$394 → $382
Aug 31, 2026Deutsche BankMaintainedHold$367 → $323
Aug 28, 2026CitigroupMaintainedNeutral$380 → $318
Aug 28, 2026BernsteinMaintainedOutperform$365 → $355
Aug 28, 2026Morgan StanleyMaintainedOverweight$438 → $432
Aug 17, 2026Evercore ISI GroupMaintainedOutperform$375 → $400
Aug 17, 2026UBSMaintainedBuy$435 → $440
Aug 14, 2026JefferiesMaintainedBuy$365 → $410
Aug 5, 2026CitigroupDowngradeBuy → Neutral$380
May 29, 2026B of A SecuritiesMaintainedBuy$367 → $375
May 29, 2026Truist SecuritiesMaintainedHold$305 → $310
May 29, 2026JP MorganMaintainedOverweight$374 → $351

BURL Competitive Positioning

Burlington Stores, Inc. (BURL) is tracked alongside these names in Apparel Retail on DailyIQ — ranked by market cap, with today's move alongside.

Held by These ETFs

BURL is a top holding in these ETFs tracked on DailyIQ — bar length shows portfolio weight.