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Last updated1 minute ago

FIX·Comfort Systems USA, Inc.

$1584.15
+1.35 (+0.09%)
High
$1,630.19
Open
$1,625.31
Market Cap
59.51B
52W High
$2,073.99
Low
$1,565.06
P. Close
$1,584.15
P/E
41.49
52W Low
$757.00
Fwd P/E
26.30
DailyIQ Est.
$2263.44
Inst. Ownership
3.8%
Short Interest
2.43%
Days to Cover
2.2
Technical Score (1D)
27
SELL
News Sentiment
61
BULLISH
The most recent analyst consensus, released 25 hours ago, shows 11 of 13 brokerage firms issuing strong‑buy ratings for Comfort Systems (FIX), driven by the company’s improving earnings, sales and margin metrics that meet the growth criteria of leading analysts. This consensus signals a bullish view that could lift short‑term sentiment as investors anticipate the upcoming earnings report, which will confirm whether revenue and margin targets hold. Earlier, 30 hours ago, a separate analysis highlighted that FIX’s earnings, sales and margins have all risen, while cash flow and ROE remain robust, underscoring the firm’s solid financial footing and low valuation risk. A 30‑hour‑old note also noted a 19.3 % free‑cash‑flow margin and a 56 % backlog growth over two years, giving the company ample flexibility for capital deployment, share buybacks or dividend increases. The company’s $1.85 billion cash reserve and low debt, reported 33 hours ago, further reinforce its capacity to fund aggressive capacity expansion without balance‑sheet strain. A 34‑hour‑old upgrade from Zacks citing higher earnings‑per‑share growth and improving cash flow has moved FIX into a strong‑growth category, which may shift investor perception toward a more aggressive upside trajectory. Meanwhile, a 34‑hour‑old report on KBR’s Live Oak e‑NG contract indicates that FIX’s clean‑energy pipeline is expanding to include hydrogen and synthetic fuels, potentially broadening revenue streams. In the data‑center arena, an 18‑hour‑old Oppenheimer note confirms that core customers remain committed, with a pipeline of 4 million square feet by end‑2026 and 5 million by spring‑2027, suggesting continued demand for HVAC solutions in the growing data‑center market. For the next 1–10 trading days, watch the earnings release for confirmation of the projected 46 % YoY earnings growth and 30 % quarterly revenue increase, as well as any forward guidance on backlog expansion or capital allocation plans.
Earnings Summary
Comfort Systems USA, Inc. (FIX) is a leading provider of mechanical and electrical services across the United States, specializing in HVAC, plumbing, electrical, and fire protection systems for commercial, industrial, and institutional markets; it operates within the broader engineering and construction sector. In the most recent quarter, Q2 2026, the company reported EPS of $12.53 versus an estimate of $10.56, and revenue of $3.27 B against an estimate of $3.02 B, marking a 7.8% EPS beat and a 8.5% revenue beat; this performance follows a Q4 2025 EPS of $9.37 versus an estimate of $6.82 and revenue of $2.65 B versus an estimate of $2.36 B, indicating a consistent acceleration in both earnings and top line growth over the last two quarters. Historically, FIX has posted YoY revenue growth of roughly 15–20% in each of the past four quarters, with EPS growth exceeding 30% in the same period; the company has consistently beat analyst estimates in all four quarters, underscoring a pattern of strong earnings execution even as revenue growth moderates slightly. Recent analyst upgrades highlight a sharp rise in EPS expectations and a robust free‑cash‑flow profile, with a record Q2 that saw revenue jump 50.3% to $3.27 B and an EBITDA margin expand to 18.4%; the company’s $1.85 B cash reserve and low debt provide flexibility to expand capacity, particularly in high‑margin data‑center projects that drive its backlog. Investors should watch for the upcoming earnings release to confirm guidance, monitor any forward‑looking commentary on the health of the data‑center backlog, and keep an eye on macro‑economic indicators that could influence construction spending, as a slowdown would directly impact FIX’s core HVAC and modular solutions business.

EPS

EstBeatMiss
$2.30$5.27$8.24$11.21$14.18Q4'24Q4'25Q2'26Q3'26
QtrEstActual+/−
Q3'26$12.81 - -
Q2'26$10.56$12.53+18.7%
Q4'25$6.82$9.37+37.3%
Q4'24$3.67$4.08+11.1%

Revenue

EstBeatMiss
$1.6B$2.1B$2.6B$3.2B$3.7BQ4'24Q4'25Q2'26Q3'26
QtrEstActual+/−
Q3'26$3.4B - -
Q2'26$3.0B$3.3B+8.0%
Q4'25$2.4B$2.6B+12.1%
Q4'24 - $1.9B -
Full Earnings BreakdownEstimates, actuals, guidance, and historical context
→

Market Data

FIX Stock Snapshot

SELL27/100
$1584.15+$1.35 (0.1%)
Market cap
59.51B
P/E ratio
41.5
Day range
$1565.06 – $1630.19
News sentiment
61/100 · Bullish
Analyst target
$2197.00 (+38.7%)
Consensus
Strong Buy · 18 analysts
52-week range+109.3% off low · -23.6% from high
$757.00$2073.99
Price $1584.15 DailyIQ Est. $2263.44

The chart on FIX has not stabilised: price is in the middle of its 52-week range and the trend is still down. Institutional coverage is thorough here, so shifts in analyst expectations show up in price quickly.

Reverse DCF

What growth is priced into FIX?

RICH

At today's price, Comfort Systems USA, Inc. needs to grow free cash flow about 48.9% a year for the next 10 years to justify its valuation at a 12.71% cost of capital. Over its actual history it has compounded free cash flow at 27.1% a year, so the market is asking for 21.7 percentage points above its own delivered rate. On that basis FIX looks priced above what its own growth record supports.

Implied FCF growth
48.9%
Historical FCF CAGR
27.1%
Growth gap
+21.7 pts
Verdict
RICH
Discount rate (WACC)
12.71%
Beta
1.55

Behaviour On Record

What FIX's own history says about today's numbers

Realized volatility (21d)
59.2% 87th pct
Below its peak
-23.1%
vs 200-day average
+5.4%
Up days (1y)
54%

Comfort Systems USA, Inc. is currently running 59.2% annualised volatility over the last 21 sessions. Measured against FIX's own 13 years of daily returns rather than a market-wide average, that is the 87th percentile — elevated for this stock, against a typical reading of 31.6%. The distinction matters because a number that looks calm for one stock is turbulent for another, and the absolute figure on its own tells you neither.

FIX is trading -23.1% below its running peak. Across 12 full years on file, its median worst-drawdown-in-a-year was -22.9%, and the deepest was -46.0% in 2025. The current drawdown is already deeper than this stock's typical annual low point, which puts it in the part of its range where past recoveries began — and where past declines also continued.

Price sits +5.4% from its 200-day moving average. Against every other day in its history, that gap ranks at the 29th percentile — a narrower gap than it typically runs. Over the past year FIX closed higher on 54% of sessions, and it is currently 1 session into a falling streak.

On September specifically: over 13 years of records, FIX finished the month higher 7 of 13 times, with a median return of +0.4% and an average of +2.9%. Its strongest month historically has been October at +9.8% on average, its weakest December at -1.3%. Seasonality is a weak signal on its own — a decade is a small sample and regimes change — but it is a real distribution rather than a rule of thumb.

Overnight risk is measurable too: FIX has opened more than 2% away from the prior close in 207 of 3,267 sessions (6.3% of the time), with the largest gaps running +17.2% and -12.8%. For anyone holding through an event, that rate is a better guide to overnight exposure than the intraday range.

All figures computed from 3,268 daily closes between 2013-09-16 and 2026-09-14, split-adjusted, recomputed daily. Percentiles are against FIX's own 13-year history, not a peer group or index.

Sector Rotation

Is money rotating into or out of FIX's sector?

Comfort Systems USA, Inc. sits in the Industrials sector, currently ranked 11th of 11 GICS sectors by relative-strength rotation score (lagging).

Sector rank
#11 of 11
Sector state
Lagging
Sector rotation score
10

Options Market

What is the options market pricing for FIX?

CallsPuts

For Comfort Systems USA, Inc.'s nearest expiry (2026-09-18, 3 days out), open interest is put-heavy, a defensive/bearish tilt (put/call ratio of 1.73), with at-the-money implied volatility around 56.6%. The options market is pricing roughly a ±5.3% move by that expiry — a range of about $1507.45–$1677.03.

Put/call ratio (2026-09-18)
1.73
ATM implied volatility
56.6%
Total open interest
4,893
Expected move by 2026-09-18
±5.3% ($1507.45–$1677.03)

Analyst Rating Changes

Are analysts turning bullish or bearish on FIX?

DA Davidson most recently initiated coverage on Comfort Systems USA, Inc. to Buy on Aug 21, 2026 with a price target of $2100. Over the last 90 days, coverage has run 0 upgrades against 0 downgrades, a net mixed lean.

Latest action
DA Davidson — Buy
90-day upgrades
0
90-day downgrades
0
Net rating momentum
0
DateFirmActionRatingPrice target
Aug 21, 2026DA DavidsonInitiatedBuy$2100
Jul 27, 2026UBSMaintainedBuy$2125 → $2225
Jul 27, 2026KeybancMaintainedOverweight$2004 → $2110
Jul 9, 2026Goldman SachsInitiatedBuy$2159
Jun 8, 2026UBSMaintainedBuy$1992 → $2125
May 28, 2026OppenheimerInitiatedOutperform$2200
Apr 27, 2026UBSMaintainedBuy$1680 → $1992
Apr 24, 2026KeybancUpgradeSector Weight → Overweight$2004
Apr 21, 2026GLJ ResearchInitiatedBuy$2001
Feb 23, 2026DA DavidsonMaintainedBuy$1200 → $1800
Jan 26, 2026StifelMaintainedBuy$1155 → $1196
Dec 19, 2025DA DavidsonMaintainedBuy$1200

FIX Competitive Positioning

Comfort Systems USA, Inc. (FIX) is tracked alongside these names in Engineering & Construction on DailyIQ — ranked by market cap, with today's move alongside.

Held by These ETFs

FIX is a top holding in these ETFs tracked on DailyIQ — bar length shows portfolio weight.