DailyIQ
DailyIQ
Last updated1 minute ago

FIX·Comfort Systems USA, Inc.

$1010.15
+45.21 (+4.69%)
High
$1,055.97
Open
$1,039.50
Market Cap
33.81B
52W High
$2,073.99
Low
$956.81
P. Close
$1,010.15
P/E
20.72
52W Low
$841.66
Fwd P/E
14.38
DailyIQ Est.
$1933.50
Inst. Own.
83.5%
Short Interest
2.27%
Days to Cover
2.0
Div. Yield
0.30%
Next Ex-Div
~Nov 11
Div. Growth
13+ yrs
NewEarnings release, scored · filed Oct 22, 2026New outlook issued · tone +0.9 vs prior release · 15 lines scoredSee the breakdown
Technical Score (1D)
92
BULLISH
News Sentiment
30
BEARISH
On Nov 5, Comfort Systems USA reported third‑quarter 2026 sales of $3.77 billion and net income of $489 million, exceeding analyst expectations, and announced a record $17.8 billion backlog driven by technology‑focused project demand. The same day the company raised its quarterly dividend to $1.00 per share after earnings per share from continuing operations surpassed the prior year. On Nov 5, analysts also highlighted new scrutiny of the company following a Democratic sweep in the U.S. elections, noting that forthcoming federal regulations could restrict AI data center expansion in the U.S. and potentially dampen demand for Comfort Systems’ data center solutions. The company’s backlog includes significant AI and semiconductor projects that could be affected by stricter policy rules. The CFO transition to insider Julie Shaeff was also confirmed, reinforcing the company’s execution continuity. These developments together suggest a strengthening investment narrative for Comfort Systems USA while raising concerns about regulatory impacts on its AI‑related projects.
LOW TARGET
$1050 +3.9%
1 analysts
MEAN TARGET
$1821 +80.2%
9 analysts
HIGH TARGET
$2053 +103.2%
8 analysts
PRICE RANGE
$1050.00 - $2053.00
SB / B / H / S / SS
7/7/2/1/1
DAILYIQ EST.
$1933.50 (+91.4%)
Sector
Industrials
Industry
Engineering & Construction
Exchange
NYQ
Country
United States
Symbol
FIX
Description
Comfort Systems USA, Inc. is a leading provider of mechanical and electrical services across the United States, specializing in the design, installation, maintenance, and repair of building systems. The company operates through two primary segments, offering comprehensive solutions for heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC), plumbing, electrical, and fire protection systems. Comfort Systems USA's core value proposition lies in its ability to serve a diverse customer base, including building owners, contractors, and property managers, across commercial, industrial, and institutional markets. Its services encompass both new construction projects and the renovation and upkeep of existing infrastructure, providing a full lifecycle approach to building system management. Founded in 1917, the company's long-standing presence and expertise position it as a key player in the mechanical and electrical services industry.
Bought (1Y)
0 shares
$0
Sold (1Y)
33,120 shares
$57.0M
Lane Brian E.CHIEF EXECUTIVE OFF.
Sell16,024 shares2026-08-26
GEORGE WILLIAM IIICHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICER
Sell2,554 shares2026-08-17
MYERS FRANKLIN-
Sell4,000 shares2026-08-11
MYERS FRANKLIN-
Sell3,500 shares2026-08-10
MYERS FRANKLIN-
Sell6,700 shares2026-06-24
85/ 100
Bullish
Overall: Bullish
✓Revenue growing year over year
✓Positive net margin
✓Positive operating cash flow
Gross Margin
24.1%
Net Margin
11.2%
Revenue CAGR
13.9%
Current Ratio
1.21x
Debt / Equity
0.06x
Return on Equity
41.8%
Earnings Summary
In the most recent quarters, the company posted EPS of $4.08 in Q4 2024 and $9.37 in Q4 2025, both well above analyst expectations of $3.67 and $6.82 respectively, while revenue rose from $1.87 billion to $2.65 billion, reflecting a 41% YoY increase in Q4 2025. The upward trajectory continued into 2026, with EPS of $12.53 in Q2 and $13.91 in Q3, again surpassing estimates of $10.46 and $12.98, and revenue climbed from $3.27 billion to $3.77 billion, a 15% YoY gain. Historically, Comfort Systems has maintained a consistent pattern of beating EPS estimates in each of the last four quarters while sustaining revenue growth, with a steady gross margin of 24.8% reported in Q3 2026. Recent news highlights a significant backlog expansion to $17.81 billion and a record $3.77 billion in revenue, underscoring robust demand from technology and modular construction clients; however, analysts have tempered expectations citing rising material costs that could erode margins.

EPS

EstBeatMiss
$2.11$5.50$8.89$12.27$15.66Q4'24Q4'25Q2'26Q3'26Q4'26
QtrEstActual+/−
Q4'26$14.10 - -
Q3'26$12.98$13.91+7.2%
Q2'26$10.46$12.53+19.8%
Q4'25$6.82$9.37+37.3%
Q4'24$3.67$4.08+11.1%

Revenue

EstBeatMiss
$1.6B$2.2B$2.8B$3.5B$4.1BQ4'24Q4'25Q2'26Q3'26Q4'26
QtrEstActual+/−
Q4'26$3.8B - -
Q3'26$3.4B$3.8B+9.6%
Q2'26$3.0B$3.3B+8.0%
Q4'25$2.4B$2.6B+12.1%
Q4'24 - $1.9B -

Market Data

FIX Stock Snapshot

BULLISH92/100
$1010.15+$45.21 (4.7%)
Market cap
33.81B
P/E ratio
20.7
Day range
$956.81 – $1055.97
News sentiment
30/100 · Bearish
Analyst target
$1820.56 (+80.2%)
Consensus
Strong Buy · 18 analysts
52-week range+20.0% off low · -51.3% from high
$841.66$2073.99
Price $1010.15 DailyIQ Est. $1933.50

FIX's technical picture is constructive, with trend and momentum pointing the same direction. Institutional coverage is thorough here, so shifts in analyst expectations show up in price quickly.

Reverse DCF

What growth is priced into FIX?

CHEAP

At today's price, Comfort Systems USA, Inc. needs to grow free cash flow about 26.5% a year for 3 years, slowing to a long-run rate by year 10, to justify its valuation at a 11.43% cost of capital. Over the last five years its revenue has trended at 31.0% a year, so the market is asking for 4.5 percentage points below its own delivered rate. On that basis FIX looks priced below what its own growth record supports.

Implied FCF growth
26.5%
Growth trend
31.0%
Growth gap
-4.5 pts
Verdict
CHEAP
Discount rate (WACC)
11.43%
Beta
1.56

Behaviour On Record

What FIX's own history says about today's numbers

Realized volatility (21d)
88.5% 98th pct
Below its peak
-48.5%
vs 200-day average
-33.8%
Up days (1y)
53%

Comfort Systems USA, Inc. is currently running 88.5% annualised volatility over the last 21 sessions. Measured against FIX's own 13 years of daily returns rather than a market-wide average, that is the 98th percentile — an extreme by its own standards, against a typical reading of 31.8%.

FIX is trading -48.5% below its running peak. Across 13 full years on file, its median worst-drawdown-in-a-year was -24.1%, and the deepest was -48.5% in 2026. The current drawdown is already deeper than this stock's typical annual low point, which puts it in the part of its range where past recoveries began, and where past declines also continued.

Price sits -33.8% from its 200-day moving average. Against every other day in its history, that gap ranks at the 0th percentile — a narrower gap than it typically runs. Over the past year FIX closed higher on 53% of sessions, and it is currently 2 sessions into a falling streak.

On November specifically: over 13 years of records, FIX finished the month higher 9 of 13 times, with a median return of +2.5% and an average of +4.4%. Its strongest month historically has been October at +7.2% on average, its weakest December at -1.3%.

Overnight risk is measurable too: FIX has opened more than 2% away from the prior close in 214 of 3,268 sessions (6.5% of the time), with the largest gaps running +17.2% and -13.5%.

Across the last 3 dated reports on file, FIX moved an average of 3.1% in the session after earnings, closing higher 1 of those 3 times, with a median move of -3.3% and a largest of -4.2%.

All figures computed from 3,269 daily closes between 2013-11-06 and 2026-11-05, split-adjusted, recomputed daily. Percentiles are against FIX's own 13-year history, not a peer group or index.

Sector Rotation

Is money rotating into or out of FIX's sector?

Comfort Systems USA, Inc. sits in the Industrials sector, currently ranked 8th of 12 GICS sectors by relative-strength rotation score (weakening).

Sector rank
#8 of 12
Sector state
Weakening
Sector rotation score
27

Options Market

What is the options market pricing for FIX?

CallsPuts

For Comfort Systems USA, Inc.'s nearest expiry (2026-11-20, 14 days out), open interest is put-heavy, a defensive/bearish tilt (put/call ratio of 2.94), with at-the-money implied volatility around 1.6%. The options market is pricing roughly a ±0.3% move by that expiry — a range of about $1025.71–$1032.01.

Put/call ratio (2026-11-20)
2.94
ATM implied volatility
1.6%
Total open interest
3,128
Expected move by 2026-11-20
±0.3% ($1025.71–$1032.01)

Analyst Consensus Estimates

What do analysts expect FIX to earn?

Analysts expect Comfort Systems USA, Inc. to earn $50.93 per share in the fiscal year ending Dec 2026 and $76.86 in the fiscal year ending Dec 2028, from 2 estimates. These are analyst forecasts, not company guidance, and later years rest on fewer analysts.

Quarter endingEPS estimateEPS rangeEPS analystsRevenue estimateRevenue analysts
Dec 2026$13.96$13.27 to $14.6510$3.82B10
Mar 2027$13.85$12.49 to $15.438$3.81B8
Jun 2027$15.94$14.34 to $16.534~$4.24B-
Sep 2027$17.36$15.33 to $18.524~$4.62B-
Fiscal year endingEPS estimateEPS rangeEPS analystsRevenue estimateRevenue analysts
Dec 2026$50.93$50.21 to $51.8410$13.72B10
Dec 2027$66.81$62.75 to $71.3210$17.37B10
Dec 2028$76.86$67.09 to $86.642~$20.45B-

Revenue marked ~ is our calculation from the EPS estimate, not analyst consensus.

Analyst Rating Changes

Are analysts turning bullish or bearish on FIX?

UBS most recently reiterated its rating on Comfort Systems USA, Inc. to Buy on Oct 26, 2026 with a price target of $1900 (from $2225). Over the last 90 days, coverage has run 0 upgrades against 0 downgrades, a net mixed lean.

Latest action
UBS: Buy
90-day upgrades
0
90-day downgrades
0
Net rating momentum
0
DateFirmActionRatingPrice target
Oct 26, 2026UBSMaintainedBuy$2225 → $1900
Oct 26, 2026OppenheimerMaintainedOutperform$2400 → $2000
Oct 26, 2026KeybancMaintainedOverweight$2125 → $1979
Oct 15, 2026KeybancMaintainedOverweight$2110 → $2125
Aug 21, 2026DA DavidsonInitiatedBuy$2100
Jul 27, 2026UBSMaintainedBuy$2125 → $2225
Jul 27, 2026KeybancMaintainedOverweight$2004 → $2110
Jul 9, 2026Goldman SachsInitiatedBuy$2159
Jun 8, 2026UBSMaintainedBuy$1992 → $2125
May 28, 2026OppenheimerInitiatedOutperform$2200
Apr 27, 2026UBSMaintainedBuy$1680 → $1992
Apr 24, 2026KeybancUpgradeSector Weight → Overweight$2004

Earnings Release, Scored

What did Comfort Systems USA, Inc.'s latest earnings release say?

Filed Oct 22, 2026 · SEC Form 8-K, Exhibit 99

New outlook issued
Tone78.3/ 100+0.9 vs prior release
Hedging words0.33per 100 words+0.33 vs prior release
Tone, last 3 releasesScale 50–89

Most important lines

  1. 1

    We also achieved remarkable cash flow exceeding $1 billion in a single quarter.

    New this quarter
  2. 2

    Mr. Lane concluded, “Relentless demand, together with our competence and reputation, produced sequential backlog growth of $3.8 billion, and a year over year backlog increase exceeding $8.0 billion.

    New this quarter
  3. 3

    Operating cash flow for the nine months ended September 30, 2026 was $2.54 billion, as compared to $717.8 million in 2025.

Peers & ETF holders

FIX peers & ETF holders

News & sentiment

What is the news saying about FIX?

FIX fell 44.6% over the month to Nov 6. News tone held between 36 and 98 from Oct 6 to Nov 3, then dropped to 58 on Nov 4.

Daily close and news tone, Oct 6 to Nov 6
$1000$1500Oct 6: tone 59Oct 7: tone 46Oct 8Oct 9: tone 57Oct 12Oct 13Oct 14: tone 36Oct 15: tone 75Oct 16: tone 44Oct 19Oct 20: tone 63Oct 21: tone 84Oct 22: tone 56Oct 23: tone 59Oct 26: tone 42Oct 27: tone 43Oct 28: tone 50Oct 29Oct 30: tone 70Nov 2Nov 3: tone 98Nov 4: tone 58Nov 5: tone 44Nov 6: tone 27Oct 6News toneNov 6123
  1. Oct 22 -13.3%same day: Comfort Systems USA Reports Third Quarter 2026 Results
  2. Nov 4 -15.1%
  3. Nov 5 -11.6%same day: Implied Volatility Surging for Comfort Systems Stock Options

Technical analysis

How strong is FIX's momentum right now?

On the daily chart FIX ranks at the 92nd percentile for momentum against 1,060 stocks and ETFs, a bullish reading.

Momentum rank by timeframe0 = weakest, 100 = strongest
See what drives the rankThe inputs behind each timeframe's momentum rank, plus RSI, stochastics, Bollinger Bands and moving averages. Free with an account.

Institutional ownership

Are big funds buying or selling FIX?

117 of the 224 tracked managers added to FIX in their latest 13F and 106 trimmed. Together they own 83.5% of the company, worth $54.5B. BlackRock and Vanguard Capital Management alone hold 17.1%.

117adding106trimming1unchanged
Largest holders by stake, latest 13FBar = share of FIX
  1. $6.7B positionTrimmed 3.3% last quarter
  2. $4.6B positionAdded 0.5% last quarter
  3. $3.7B positionTrimmed 0.8% last quarter
  4. $3.3B positionAdded 14.5% last quarter
  5. $3.0B positionAdded 4.4% last quarter
  6. $2.3B positionTrimmed 7.0% last quarter
  7. $2.1B positionTrimmed 5.1% last quarter
  8. $1.6B positionTrimmed 5.8% last quarter
  9. $1.4B positionTrimmed 16.8% last quarter
  10. $1.3B positionAdded 8.5% last quarter
Full holdings history

Congressional trading

Is Congress trading FIX?

3 members of Congress disclosed 3 FIX trades between Jan 13, 2025 and Mar 27, 2026: 2 buys and 1 sell, about $24.0K in estimated value.

BuysSellsJan ’25AprJulOctJan ’26
BuySell$1K–$15K$15K–$50K$50K–$100K$100K–$250K

What stands out

Click one to highlight its trades in the chart

Discover more

How has FIX done against its peers?

Over the six months to Nov 6, FIX returned −49.6%. Of the 15 related stocks and ETFs, all did better, led by CTAS at +32.0%.

Change since May 6, through Nov 6
−75%−50%−25%0%+25%+50%May 6JunJulAugSepOctNov 6CTAS +32.0%FIX −49.6%