NTRA|Earnings Snapshot
EPS
| Qtr | Est | Actual | +/− |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q3'26 | $-0.24 | - | - |
| Q2'26 | $-0.50 | $-0.47 | +6.7% |
| Q4'24 | $-0.35 | $-0.41 | -18.3% |
Revenue
| Qtr | Est | Actual | +/− |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q3'26 | $720M | - | - |
| Q2'26 | $674M | $753M | +11.7% |
| Q4'24 | - | $476M | - |
NTRA|Monthly Returns
Market Data
NTRA Stock Snapshot
- Market cap
- 53.25B
- Day range
- $363.96 – $373.50
- News sentiment
- 60/100 · Bullish
- Analyst target
- $344.33 (-7.1%)
- Consensus
- Buy · 32 analysts
NTRA's technical picture is constructive, with trend and momentum pointing the same direction. Institutional coverage is thorough here, so shifts in analyst expectations show up in price quickly.
Reverse DCF
What growth is priced into NTRA?
At today's price, Natera, Inc. needs to grow free cash flow about 110.8% a year for the next 10 years to justify its valuation at a 10.69% cost of capital. Over its actual history it has compounded free cash flow at 62.4% a year, so the market is asking for 48.4 percentage points above its own delivered rate. On that basis NTRA looks priced above what its own growth record supports.
- Implied FCF growth
- 110.8%
- Historical FCF CAGR
- 62.4%
- Growth gap
- +48.4 pts
- Verdict
- RICH
- Discount rate (WACC)
- 10.69%
- Beta
- 1.14
Behaviour On Record
What NTRA's own history says about today's numbers
- Realized volatility (21d)
- 36.2% 13th pct
- Below its peak
- -0.2%
- vs 200-day average
- +53.0%
- Up days (1y)
- 51%
Natera, Inc. is currently running 36.2% annualised volatility over the last 21 sessions. Measured against NTRA's own 11 years of daily returns rather than a market-wide average, that is the 13th percentile — unusually subdued by its own history, against a typical reading of 51.6%. The distinction matters because a number that looks calm for one stock is turbulent for another, and the absolute figure on its own tells you neither.
NTRA is at its running peak. Across 10 full years on file its median worst-drawdown-in-a-year was -38.6%, with the deepest at -70.3% in 2022 — so highs have historically been given back before they were extended.
Price sits +53.0% from its 200-day moving average. Against every other day in its history, that gap ranks at the 88th percentile — a wider gap than this stock usually carries. Over the past year NTRA closed higher on 51% of sessions, and it is currently 1 session into a falling streak.
On September specifically: over 12 years of records, NTRA finished the month higher 6 of 12 times, with a median return of -1.1% and an average of -3.6%. Its strongest month historically has been August at +14.8% on average, its weakest October at -4.1%. Seasonality is a weak signal on its own — a decade is a small sample and regimes change — but it is a real distribution rather than a rule of thumb.
Overnight risk is measurable too: NTRA has opened more than 2% away from the prior close in 304 of 2,820 sessions (10.8% of the time), with the largest gaps running +12.3% and -18.8%. For anyone holding through an event, that rate is a better guide to overnight exposure than the intraday range.
All figures computed from 2,821 daily closes between 2015-07-02 and 2026-09-21, split-adjusted, recomputed daily. Percentiles are against NTRA's own 11-year history, not a peer group or index.
Sector Rotation
Is money rotating into or out of NTRA's sector?
Natera, Inc. sits in the Health Care sector, currently ranked 5th of 11 GICS sectors by relative-strength rotation score (improving).
- Sector rank
- #5 of 11
- Sector state
- Improving
- Sector rotation score
- 80
Analyst Rating Changes
Are analysts turning bullish or bearish on NTRA?
UBS most recently reiterated its rating on Natera, Inc. to Buy on Sep 9, 2026 with a price target of $435 (from $290). Over the last 90 days, coverage has run 0 upgrades against 0 downgrades, a net mixed lean.
- Latest action
- UBS — Buy
- 90-day upgrades
- 0
- 90-day downgrades
- 0
- Net rating momentum
- 0
