ORI·Old Republic International Corporation

Realized volatility (21d)

19.1% 43rd pct

Below its peak

-19.0%

vs 200-day average

-7.9%

Up days (1y)

49%

Old Republic International Corporation is currently running 19.1% annualised volatility over the last 21 sessions. Measured against ORI's own 13 years of daily returns rather than a market-wide average, that is the 43rd percentile — close to its own typical level, against a typical reading of 20.4%. The distinction matters because a number that looks calm for one stock is turbulent for another, and the absolute figure on its own tells you neither.

ORI is trading -19.0% below its running peak. Across 12 full years on file, its median worst-drawdown-in-a-year was -14.3%, and the deepest was -47.5% in 2020. The current drawdown is already deeper than this stock's typical annual low point, which puts it in the part of its range where past recoveries began — and where past declines also continued.

Price sits -7.9% from its 200-day moving average. Against every other day in its history, that gap ranks at the 10th percentile — a narrower gap than it typically runs. Over the past year ORI closed higher on 49% of sessions, and it is currently 1 session into a falling streak.

On October specifically: over 13 years of records, ORI finished the month higher 8 of 13 times, with a median return of +3.9% and an average of +3.6%. Its strongest month historically has been November at +4.8% on average, its weakest September at -3.1%. Seasonality is a weak signal on its own — a decade is a small sample and regimes change — but it is a real distribution rather than a rule of thumb.

Overnight risk is measurable too: ORI has opened more than 2% away from the prior close in 142 of 3,267 sessions (4.3% of the time), with the largest gaps running +10.0% and -7.0%. For anyone holding through an event, that rate is a better guide to overnight exposure than the intraday range.

All figures computed from 3,268 daily closes between 2013-10-07 and 2026-10-05, split-adjusted, recomputed daily. Percentiles are against ORI's own 13-year history, not a peer group or index.