DailyIQ
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Sector:Consumer CyclicalAll sectors
Last updated 7 minutes ago

ULTA·Ulta Beauty, Inc.

$.
+. (+.%)
After Hours
High
$470.70
Open
$463.83
Market Cap
20.17B
52W High
$714.97
Low
$461.25
P. Close
$469.39
P/E
16.97
52W Low
$443.60
Fwd P/E
14.73
DailyIQ Est.
$647.38
Technical Score (1D)
32
SELL
News Sentiment
76
BULLISH
The most recent update shows Ulta’s “reset” has made the buy case more attractive, driven by improving gross margins, strong comparable sales, and a robust loyalty program, suggesting a potential upside in the near term. Concurrently, Ulta’s partnership with Bath & Body Works, including a celebrity tie‑in with Hilary Duff and a rollout of flagship fragrances in over 600 stores, is aimed at reversing recent sales declines and attracting younger shoppers, which could lift same‑store sales and broaden the customer base. The Bath & Body Works launch also expands Ulta’s product mix and cross‑selling opportunities, but analysts caution that channel shift risks and potential cannibalization could temper the benefit, so watch the rollout pace and inventory allocation. Ulta’s international expansion, with new overseas stores and growing overseas businesses, offers a long‑term revenue diversification path that could mitigate domestic market headwinds, so monitor international sales growth metrics. Earnings guidance for the next quarter shows a 6.57% YoY increase in EPS to $6.16 and revenue of $2.97 B, with FY consensus earnings of $28.67 and revenue of $13.21 B, indicating solid but not exceptional growth that will be tested against margin trends. Discounted‑cash‑flow analysis points to upside potential despite a recent price pullback, so keep an eye on quarterly cash‑flow releases and any shifts in consumer spending that could validate the valuation. The upcoming Q3 earnings release will be a key catalyst, as management’s commentary on gross margin, same‑store sales, and the Bath & Body Works partnership will clarify the impact of these initiatives on profitability. Meanwhile, the planned replacement of Ulta shop‑in‑shops by Target’s Beauty Studio in 600+ stores, ending the partnership in August 2026, could erode Ulta’s retail footprint and revenue, so watch Target’s rollout schedule and Ulta’s revenue attribution. Ulta’s AI‑driven loyalty personalization is expected to deepen engagement and lift average spend, but the cost of rewards may pressure margins, so monitor margin guidance and loyalty metrics in the next earnings cycle. Finally, with capital rotation away from mega‑cap tech and a market‑share gain narrative, analysts maintain a buy rating and a $685 target, suggesting that the stock may still be undervalued relative to its earnings prospects, so watch analyst revisions and any changes in the valuation multiples.
Earnings Summary
Ulta Beauty, Inc. is a leading specialty retailer that blends a wide assortment of cosmetics, skincare, haircare, fragrances, and professional salon services with a multi‑channel retail strategy encompassing physical stores, e‑commerce, and mobile platforms, thereby creating a comprehensive beauty experience for consumers across the United States, Mexico, and Kuwait. In the latest two quarters, Ulta reported EPS of $7.74 in Q1 2027, with Q2 2027 EPS pending, compared to $5.14 in Q3 2025 and $5.78 in Q2 2025, reflecting a modest decline in earnings growth; revenue, however, increased from $2.7885 B in Q2 2025 to $2.8576 B in Q3 2025 and then to $3.1639 B in Q1 2027, indicating accelerating top‑line momentum. Historically, Ulta has consistently beaten analyst EPS estimates in every quarter reported, with five consecutive beats, while revenue has grown each quarter, demonstrating a strong earnings streak and resilient sales performance. Recent news highlights a partnership with Bath & Body Works that will introduce fragrance, body‑care, and home‑fragrance products into over 600 Ulta stores and the e‑commerce platform, a move expected to boost foot traffic and online sales; Argus has lowered Ulta’s target price to $550 from $615 amid concerns over consumer spending, yet maintains a buy rating, and the company’s loyalty program has expanded to 47 million members, powered by a proprietary beauty‑graph algorithm aimed at increasing basket size and repeat traffic. Investors should watch the next earnings cycle for early revenue lift attributable to the new partnership, the impact of the loyalty program on same‑store sales and gross margin, and any commentary on inventory rollout or supply‑chain constraints that could affect the timing and profitability of the Bath & Body Works launch.

EPS

EstBeatMiss
$4.02$5.28$6.53$7.78$9.04Q4'24Q1'25Q2'25Q3'25Q1'27Q2'27
QtrEstActual+/−
Q2'27$6.15 - -
Q1'27$6.89$7.74+12.3%
Q3'25$4.60$5.14+11.7%
Q2'25$5.04$5.78+14.7%
Q1'25$5.80$6.70+15.5%
Q4'24$7.15$8.46+18.4%

Revenue

EstBeatMiss
$2.7B$2.9B$3.1B$3.4B$3.6BQ4'24Q1'25Q2'25Q3'25Q1'27Q2'27
QtrEstActual+/−
Q2'27$3.0B - -
Q1'27$3.2B$3.2B+0.3%
Q3'25 - $2.9B -
Q2'25 - $2.8B -
Q1'25 - $2.8B -
Q4'24 - $3.5B -
Full Earnings BreakdownEstimates, actuals, guidance, and historical context
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Market Data

ULTA Stock Snapshot

ULTA is currently trading at $468.00, giving Ulta Beauty, Inc. a market cap of 20.17B and a P/E ratio of 17.0. Today's range spans $461.25–$470.70, with shares opening at $463.83 and moving down $1.39 (0.3%) from the prior close. DailyIQ's technical score sits at 32/100 (SELL) with a news sentiment reading of 76/100.

Over the past year ULTA has traded between $443.60 and $714.97 - the current price is +5.5% off the 52-week low and -34.5% from the high. 35 analysts cover the stock with a Buy consensus and a mean 12-month target of $623.58 (range $450.00–$735.00), implying upside of +33.2%.

The technical and sentiment data for Ulta Beauty, Inc. (ULTA) both point lower - 32/100, SELL, sentiment bullish at 76/100, price $468.00 (near 52-week lows). The current P/E ratio stands at 17.0. As a large-cap with 20.17B in Consumer Cyclical, this is a name that short sellers actively cover: liquid enough to short with minimal borrowing friction, large enough to matter to a portfolio. Annual range: $443.60–$714.97.

Analyst coverage for ULTA becomes a double-edged factor in a SELL phase: at 20.17B in Consumer Cyclical market cap, active coverage is high enough that downgrade risk is real and impactful. The 32/100 technical reading and bullish sentiment (76/100) at $468.00 (near 52-week lows) place the stock in the zone where one or two high-profile estimate cuts can convert a grinding decline into a sharper re-rating — the $443.60–$714.97 range establishes where that repricing lands.