CCL·Carnival Corporation & plc

Realized volatility (21d)

48.6% 75th pct

Below its peak

-62.8%

vs 200-day average

-2.1%

Up days (1y)

48%

Carnival Corporation & plc is currently running 48.6% annualised volatility over the last 21 sessions. Measured against CCL's own 13 years of daily returns rather than a market-wide average, that is the 75th percentile — a little above its own norm, against a typical reading of 35.0%. The distinction matters because a number that looks calm for one stock is turbulent for another, and the absolute figure on its own tells you neither.

CCL is trading -62.8% below its running peak. Across 12 full years on file, its median worst-drawdown-in-a-year was -34.0%, and the deepest was -84.2% in 2020. The current drawdown is already deeper than this stock's typical annual low point, which puts it in the part of its range where past recoveries began — and where past declines also continued.

Price sits -2.1% from its 200-day moving average. Against every other day in its history, that gap ranks at the 45th percentile — close to the gap it normally carries. Over the past year CCL closed higher on 48% of sessions, and it is currently 4 sessions into a rising streak.

On October specifically: over 14 years of records, CCL finished the month higher 9 of 14 times, with a median return of +1.8% and an average of +2.4%. Its strongest month historically has been November at +8.0% on average, its weakest March at -6.1%. Seasonality is a weak signal on its own — a decade is a small sample and regimes change — but it is a real distribution rather than a rule of thumb.

Overnight risk is measurable too: CCL has opened more than 2% away from the prior close in 195 of 3,268 sessions (6.0% of the time), with the largest gaps running +10.9% and -10.1%. For anyone holding through an event, that rate is a better guide to overnight exposure than the intraday range.

Across the last 3 dated reports on file, CCL moved an average of 7.2% in the session after earnings, closing higher 2 of those 3 times, with a median move of +3.3% and a largest of +13.5%.

All figures computed from 3,269 daily closes between 2013-10-15 and 2026-10-14, split-adjusted, recomputed daily. Percentiles are against CCL's own 13-year history, not a peer group or index.