WMS·Advanced Drainage Systems Inc.
WMS|Analyst Targets
WMS|Insider Trading
WMS|Fundamentals
WMS|Earnings Snapshot
EPS
| Qtr | Est | Actual | +/− |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'27 | $1.78 | - | - |
| Q3'25 | $1.64 | $1.98 | +20.5% |
Revenue
| Qtr | Est | Actual | +/− |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'27 | $943M | - | - |
| Q3'25 | - | $850M | - |
WMS|Monthly Returns
Market Data
WMS Stock Snapshot
- Market cap
- 9.75B
- P/E ratio
- 21.6
- Day range
- $129.25 – $132.51
- News sentiment
- 72/100 · Bullish
- Analyst target
- $182.25 (+40.1%)
- Consensus
- Buy · 19 analysts
This is a pause rather than a turn for WMS - the signals are mixed by construction. At this size, a single catalyst moves the stock further than it would a larger peer.
Reverse DCF
What growth is priced into WMS?
At today's price, Advanced Drainage Systems Inc. needs to grow free cash flow about 9.4% a year for the next 10 years to justify its valuation at a 9.65% cost of capital. Over its actual history it has compounded free cash flow at 26.3% a year, so the market is asking for 16.9 percentage points below its own delivered rate. On that basis WMS looks priced below what its own growth record supports.
- Implied FCF growth
- 9.4%
- Historical FCF CAGR
- 26.3%
- Growth gap
- -16.9 pts
- Verdict
- CHEAP
- Discount rate (WACC)
- 9.65%
- Beta
- 1.02
Behaviour On Record
What WMS's own history says about today's numbers
- Realized volatility (21d)
- 26.4% 23rd pct
- Below its peak
- -27.8%
- vs 200-day average
- -11.2%
- Up days (1y)
- 45%
Advanced Drainage Systems Inc. is currently running 26.4% annualised volatility over the last 21 sessions. Measured against WMS's own 12 years of daily returns rather than a market-wide average, that is the 23rd percentile — unusually subdued by its own history, against a typical reading of 34.1%. The distinction matters because a number that looks calm for one stock is turbulent for another, and the absolute figure on its own tells you neither.
WMS is trading -27.8% below its running peak. Across 11 full years on file, its median worst-drawdown-in-a-year was -29.8%, and the deepest was -53.7% in 2020. The current pullback is therefore shallower than what this stock gives back in a typical year, which is context worth having before treating it as a dislocation.
Price sits -11.2% from its 200-day moving average. Against every other day in its history, that gap ranks at the 17th percentile — a narrower gap than it typically runs. Over the past year WMS closed higher on 45% of sessions, and it is currently 3 sessions into a rising streak.
On October specifically: over 12 years of records, WMS finished the month higher 4 of 12 times, with a median return of -2.8% and an average of -2.0%. Its strongest month historically has been April at +5.1% on average, its weakest March at -3.6%. Seasonality is a weak signal on its own — a decade is a small sample and regimes change — but it is a real distribution rather than a rule of thumb.
Overnight risk is measurable too: WMS has opened more than 2% away from the prior close in 215 of 3,066 sessions (7.0% of the time), with the largest gaps running +7.9% and -19.6%. For anyone holding through an event, that rate is a better guide to overnight exposure than the intraday range.
All figures computed from 3,067 daily closes between 2014-07-25 and 2026-10-05, split-adjusted, recomputed daily. Percentiles are against WMS's own 12-year history, not a peer group or index.
Sector Rotation
Is money rotating into or out of WMS's sector?
Advanced Drainage Systems Inc. sits in the Consumer Discretionary sector, currently ranked 6th of 12 GICS sectors by relative-strength rotation score (improving).
- Sector rank
- #6 of 12
- Sector state
- Improving
- Sector rotation score
- 64
Analyst Rating Changes
Are analysts turning bullish or bearish on WMS?
Stephens & Co. most recently reiterated its rating on Advanced Drainage Systems Inc. to Overweight on Sep 21, 2026 with a price target of $175. Over the last 90 days, coverage has run 0 upgrades against 0 downgrades, a net mixed lean.
- Latest action
- Stephens & Co. — Overweight
- 90-day upgrades
- 0
- 90-day downgrades
- 0
- Net rating momentum
- 0
Held by These ETFs
News Sentiment Analysis
Sentiment gathered from recent headlines
Recent News Coverage
Most recent articles, ranked by recency (click to expand).
Technical Analysis
Real-time indicators across multiple timeframes
| Member | Chamber | State | Type | Amount | Traded | Filed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lisa McClain | House | MI09 | ▼ Sell | $1K - $15K | 2025-07-16 | 2025-08-13 |
| Rob Bresnahan | House | PA08 | ▼ Sell | $1K - $15K | 2025-01-13 | 2025-02-13 |
| Tommy Tuberville | Senate | AL | ▼ Sell | $1K - $15K | 2024-05-07 | 2026-08-05 |
| Tommy Tuberville | Senate | AL | ▲ Buy | $1K - $15K | 2023-10-17 | 2023-11-16 |