ALSN·Allison Transmission Holdings Inc.
ALSN|Analyst Targets
ALSN|Insider Trading
ALSN|Fundamentals
ALSN|Earnings Snapshot
EPS
| Qtr | Est | Actual | +/− |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q3'26 | $2.48 | - | - |
| Q3'25 | $1.85 | $1.75 | -5.7% |
Revenue
| Qtr | Est | Actual | +/− |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q3'26 | $1.5B | - | - |
| Q3'25 | - | $693M | - |
ALSN|Monthly Returns
Market Data
ALSN Stock Snapshot
- Market cap
- 9.56B
- P/E ratio
- 18.1
- Day range
- $109.36 – $113.93
- News sentiment
- 57/100 · Neutral
- Analyst target
- $140.73 (+27.1%)
- Consensus
- Buy · 18 analysts
Allison Transmission Holdings Inc. is trading in the middle of its 52-week range with momentum still pointing lower. Position sizing matters more than usual in a name this size, where volatility is structural.
Reverse DCF
What growth is priced into ALSN?
At today's price, Allison Transmission Holdings Inc. needs to grow free cash flow about 2.8% a year for the next 10 years to justify its valuation at a 8.97% cost of capital. Over its actual history it has compounded free cash flow at 4.0% a year, so the market is asking for 1.3 percentage points below its own delivered rate. On that basis ALSN looks priced roughly in line with its own growth record.
- Implied FCF growth
- 2.8%
- Historical FCF CAGR
- 4.0%
- Growth gap
- -1.3 pts
- Verdict
- FAIR
- Discount rate (WACC)
- 8.97%
- Beta
- 0.96
Behaviour On Record
What ALSN's own history says about today's numbers
- Realized volatility (21d)
- 26.3% 53rd pct
- Below its peak
- -15.5%
- vs 200-day average
- -1.5%
- Up days (1y)
- 52%
Allison Transmission Holdings Inc. is currently running 26.3% annualised volatility over the last 21 sessions. Measured against ALSN's own 13 years of daily returns rather than a market-wide average, that is the 53rd percentile — close to its own typical level, against a typical reading of 25.6%. The distinction matters because a number that looks calm for one stock is turbulent for another, and the absolute figure on its own tells you neither.
ALSN is trading -15.5% below its running peak. Across 12 full years on file, its median worst-drawdown-in-a-year was -21.0%, and the deepest was -45.1% in 2020. The current pullback is therefore shallower than what this stock gives back in a typical year, which is context worth having before treating it as a dislocation.
Price sits -1.5% from its 200-day moving average. Against every other day in its history, that gap ranks at the 30th percentile — close to the gap it normally carries. Over the past year ALSN closed higher on 52% of sessions, and it is currently 1 session into a falling streak.
On October specifically: over 13 years of records, ALSN finished the month higher 7 of 13 times, with a median return of +3.0% and an average of +2.4%. Its strongest month historically has been November at +5.7% on average, its weakest March at -1.9%. Seasonality is a weak signal on its own — a decade is a small sample and regimes change — but it is a real distribution rather than a rule of thumb.
Overnight risk is measurable too: ALSN has opened more than 2% away from the prior close in 159 of 3,267 sessions (4.9% of the time), with the largest gaps running +11.0% and -17.6%. For anyone holding through an event, that rate is a better guide to overnight exposure than the intraday range.
All figures computed from 3,268 daily closes between 2013-10-07 and 2026-10-05, split-adjusted, recomputed daily. Percentiles are against ALSN's own 13-year history, not a peer group or index.
Sector Rotation
Is money rotating into or out of ALSN's sector?
Allison Transmission Holdings Inc. sits in the Consumer Discretionary sector, currently ranked 6th of 12 GICS sectors by relative-strength rotation score (improving).
- Sector rank
- #6 of 12
- Sector state
- Improving
- Sector rotation score
- 55
Analyst Rating Changes
Are analysts turning bullish or bearish on ALSN?
Freedom Broker most recently initiated coverage on Allison Transmission Holdings Inc. to Buy on Oct 2, 2026 with a price target of $144. Over the last 90 days, coverage has run 0 upgrades against 0 downgrades, a net mixed lean.
- Latest action
- Freedom Broker — Buy
- 90-day upgrades
- 0
- 90-day downgrades
- 0
- Net rating momentum
- 0
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News Sentiment Analysis
Sentiment gathered from recent headlines
Recent News Coverage
Most recent articles, ranked by recency (click to expand).