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Last updatedjust now

MGM·MGM Resorts International

$37.80
-0.51 (-1.33%)
Market Closed (Overnight)$37.81+0.01 (+0.03%)
High
$38.45
Open
$38.33
Market Cap
9.48B
52W High
$51.59
Low
$37.50
P. Close
$37.80
P/E
22.27
52W Low
$28.01
Fwd P/E
18.30
DailyIQ Est.
$50.92
Inst. Ownership
47.1%
Short Interest
7.53%
Days to Cover
10.1
Technical Score (1D)
14
SELL
News Sentiment
48
MIXED
The NFL’s Week 1 has pushed MGM’s sportsbook app past the World Cup peak in daily active users, signaling a short‑term lift in betting revenue that could materialize over the next few trading days. This surge confirms the company’s focus on sports‑betting expansion and suggests that cross‑app usage trends may drive further monetization opportunities. In the same window, UBS trimmed its price target to $46 from $50, a modest valuation reassessment that may temper enthusiasm but is unlikely to trigger immediate trading moves. Earlier this week, People Inc.’s stake in MGM exceeded its own market cap, and the firm’s strong‑buy upgrade reflects confidence in the company’s earnings trajectory and potential upside. A few days back, Macquarie and Argus Research both raised their targets to $55, underscoring a broader bullish view on MGM’s casino and hospitality operations. The company’s Q2 earnings missed estimates by a few cents, but revenue growth from Las Vegas Strip resorts, MGM Digital, and regional operations offset weaker profitability at MGM China, keeping the earnings outlook cautiously positive. Analysts note that the Osaka expansion adds execution risk, yet the firm’s strong balance sheet and low leverage support continued investment in growth projects. Going forward, watch for updates on the People Inc. take‑private bid, as its outcome could materially shift valuation expectations, and monitor the next earnings release for confirmation of the revised guidance.
Earnings Summary
MGM Resorts International operates a diversified portfolio of casino resorts and digital platforms across the United States and China, delivering gaming, hospitality, dining, entertainment, and retail services to a broad customer base. As a leading player in the consumer cyclical sector, the company’s performance is closely tied to leisure demand and regulatory environments. In the most recent quarters, MGM reported EPS of $0.45 in Q4 2024 and $0.69 in Q1 2025, both exceeding estimates of $0.338 and $0.447 respectively, while revenue rose to $4.35 billion and $4.28 billion, respectively. The trend continued into Q2 2025 with an EPS of $0.79 versus an estimate of $0.548 and revenue of $4.40 billion, but a reversal occurred in Q3 2025 where EPS fell to $0.24 against an estimate of $0.299 and revenue dipped to $4.25 billion. The latest Q2 2026 results show EPS of $0.59 versus an estimate of $0.579 and revenue of $4.45 billion against a forecast of $4.46 billion, indicating a narrowing earnings gap and a slight revenue shortfall. Historically, MGM has delivered consistent revenue growth year‑over‑year, with EPS growth accelerating in the first half of 2025 before decelerating in the third quarter. The company has frequently beat analyst estimates in the first two quarters of each year, but has experienced misses in the third quarter, reflecting a pattern of stronger early‑year performance that tapers later in the year. Recent news highlights a UBS downgrade of the price target to $46 from $50, citing modest reassessment of valuation and signaling a potential headwind on near‑term earnings expectations; this downgrade follows a Q2 earnings miss and underscores lingering profitability concerns. Investors should watch for updates on the People Incorporated take‑private bid, as its progress could lift fair‑value estimates, and monitor MGM’s guidance on capital spending in Osaka and digital platform expansion, which will clarify whether execution risk is being mitigated. Key will be the company’s ability to sustain revenue momentum while improving profitability metrics in the coming quarter.

EPS

EstBeatMiss
$0.15$0.33$0.51$0.69$0.87Q4'24Q1'25Q2'25Q3'25Q2'26Q3'26
QtrEstActual+/−
Q3'26$0.23 - -
Q2'26$0.58$0.59+1.9%
Q3'25$0.30$0.24-19.9%
Q2'25$0.55$0.79+44.0%
Q1'25$0.45$0.69+54.3%
Q4'24$0.34$0.45+33.0%

Revenue

EstBeatMiss
$4.2B$4.3B$4.4B$4.4B$4.5BQ4'24Q1'25Q2'25Q3'25Q2'26Q3'26
QtrEstActual+/−
Q3'26$4.3B - -
Q2'26$4.5B$4.5B-0.3%
Q3'25 - $4.3B -
Q2'25 - $4.4B -
Q1'25 - $4.3B -
Q4'24 - $4.3B -
Full Earnings BreakdownEstimates, actuals, guidance, and historical context
→

Market Data

MGM Stock Snapshot

SELL14/100
$37.81+$0.01 (0.0%)
Market cap
9.48B
P/E ratio
22.3
Day range
$37.50 – $38.45
News sentiment
48/100 · Neutral
Analyst target
$50.41 (+33.3%)
Consensus
Hold · 31 analysts
52-week range+35.0% off low · -26.7% from high
$28.01$51.59
Price $37.81 DailyIQ Est. $50.92

The trend on MGM is bearish, and the indicator set is confirming it rather than diverging. Thinner liquidity means moves can extend past what the fundamentals alone justify.

Reverse DCF

What growth is priced into MGM?

CHEAP

At today's price, MGM Resorts International needs to grow free cash flow about -9.4% a year for the next 10 years to justify its valuation at a 8.96% cost of capital. Over its actual history it has compounded free cash flow at 10.5% a year, so the market is asking for 19.9 percentage points below its own delivered rate. On that basis MGM looks priced below what its own growth record supports.

Implied FCF growth
-9.4%
Historical FCF CAGR
10.5%
Growth gap
-19.9 pts
Verdict
CHEAP
Discount rate (WACC)
8.96%
Beta
1.18

Behaviour On Record

What MGM's own history says about today's numbers

Realized volatility (21d)
19.1% 6th pct
Below its peak
-25.6%
vs 200-day average
-5.1%
Up days (1y)
43%

MGM Resorts International is currently running 19.1% annualised volatility over the last 21 sessions. Measured against MGM's own 13 years of daily returns rather than a market-wide average, that is the 6th percentile — unusually subdued by its own history, against a typical reading of 33.4%. The distinction matters because a number that looks calm for one stock is turbulent for another, and the absolute figure on its own tells you neither.

MGM is trading -25.6% below its running peak. Across 12 full years on file, its median worst-drawdown-in-a-year was -31.3%, and the deepest was -78.1% in 2020. The current pullback is therefore shallower than what this stock gives back in a typical year, which is context worth having before treating it as a dislocation.

Price sits -5.1% from its 200-day moving average. Against every other day in its history, that gap ranks at the 31st percentile — close to the gap it normally carries. Over the past year MGM closed higher on 43% of sessions, and it is currently 4 sessions into a falling streak.

On September specifically: over 13 years of records, MGM finished the month higher 4 of 13 times, with a median return of -3.9% and an average of -3.4%. Its strongest month historically has been November at +5.4% on average, its weakest March at -4.1%. Seasonality is a weak signal on its own — a decade is a small sample and regimes change — but it is a real distribution rather than a rule of thumb.

Overnight risk is measurable too: MGM has opened more than 2% away from the prior close in 149 of 3,267 sessions (4.6% of the time), with the largest gaps running +12.0% and -13.2%. For anyone holding through an event, that rate is a better guide to overnight exposure than the intraday range.

All figures computed from 3,268 daily closes between 2013-09-20 and 2026-09-18, split-adjusted, recomputed daily. Percentiles are against MGM's own 13-year history, not a peer group or index.

Sector Rotation

Is money rotating into or out of MGM's sector?

MGM Resorts International sits in the Consumer Discretionary sector, currently ranked 10th of 11 GICS sectors by relative-strength rotation score (improving).

Sector rank
#10 of 11
Sector state
Improving
Sector rotation score
10

Options Market

What is the options market pricing for MGM?

CallsPuts

For MGM Resorts International's nearest expiry (2026-10-16, 27 days out), open interest is put-heavy, a defensive/bearish tilt (put/call ratio of 1.17), with at-the-money implied volatility around 50.2%. The options market is pricing roughly a ±13.9% move by that expiry — a range of about $35.09–$46.41.

Put/call ratio (2026-10-16)
1.17
ATM implied volatility
50.2%
Total open interest
37,273
Expected move by 2026-10-16
±13.9% ($35.09–$46.41)

Analyst Rating Changes

Are analysts turning bullish or bearish on MGM?

UBS most recently reiterated its rating on MGM Resorts International to Neutral on Sep 11, 2026 with a price target of $46 (from $50). Over the last 90 days, coverage has run 1 upgrade against 0 downgrades, a net bullish lean.

Latest action
UBS — Neutral
90-day upgrades
1
90-day downgrades
0
Net rating momentum
+1
DateFirmActionRatingPrice target
Sep 11, 2026UBSMaintainedNeutral$50 → $46
Aug 17, 2026MacquarieMaintainedOutperform$54 → $55
Aug 17, 2026Argus ResearchMaintainedBuy$45 → $55
Jul 30, 2026MacquarieMaintainedOutperform$52 → $54
Jul 29, 2026SusquehannaMaintainedPositive$52 → $53
Jul 9, 2026BarclaysMaintainedEqual-Weight$39 → $48
Jul 7, 2026Wells FargoUpgradeUnderweight → Equal-Weight$33 → $48
Jul 7, 2026MacquarieMaintainedOutperform$46 → $52
Jun 15, 2026StifelDowngradeBuy → Hold$48 → $49
Jun 12, 2026JP MorganMaintainedOverweight$46 → $53
Jun 4, 2026UBSMaintainedNeutral$39 → $50
Jun 3, 2026CBREDowngradeBuy → Hold$50

MGM Competitive Positioning

MGM Resorts International (MGM) is tracked alongside these names in Resorts & Casinos on DailyIQ — ranked by market cap, with today's move alongside.

Held by These ETFs

MGM is a top holding in these ETFs tracked on DailyIQ — bar length shows portfolio weight.