DailyIQ
|
Sector:Consumer CyclicalAll sectors
Last updatedUpdating…

MGM·MGM Resorts International

$39.27
-0.56 (-1.41%)
High
$39.83
Open
$39.60
Market Cap
9.99B
52W High
$51.59
Low
$39.20
P. Close
$39.27
P/E
23.45
52W Low
$28.01
Fwd P/E
19.28
DailyIQ Est.
$50.92
Inst. Ownership
46.7%
Short Interest
7.47%
Days to Cover
10.1
Technical Score (1D)
9
SELL
News Sentiment
32
BEARISH
UBS has trimmed its price target for MGM Resorts International from $50 to $46, citing a modest reassessment of the company’s valuation that signals a slight headwind on future earnings expectations. The downgrade suggests that analysts are less optimistic about the near‑term upside, which could temper investor enthusiasm for the next few trading days. Earlier this year, MGM’s Q2 earnings report missed consensus estimates, with adjusted EPS at 59 cents versus the expected 63 cents, even though revenue grew on the back of strong Las Vegas Strip and digital operations; the earnings shortfall underscores lingering profitability concerns that may keep the stock on a cautious trajectory. In a separate development, People Inc’s stake in MGM now exceeds its own market capitalization, a move that has prompted a strong‑buy upgrade and highlights the potential upside from a take‑private scenario, but the outcome of that bid remains uncertain. Meanwhile, Macquarie and Argus Research have both raised their price targets to $55 and maintained outperform or buy ratings, reflecting confidence in MGM’s earnings recovery and the favorable macro environment for casino operators. The proposed $48.30 per‑share take‑private bid from People Incorporated has become a key catalyst, prompting analysts to lift fair‑value estimates and cluster price targets in the low‑mid $40s to $50s; the progress of that bid will be a critical watch item. MGM’s latest quarterly report also noted record consolidated revenue but an EBITDA miss, sparking a debate over whether the valuation fully reflects the company’s growth potential. Finally, peer comparisons show that MGM beat sector averages in Q2 earnings, driven by robust gaming and hospitality revenue, yet regulatory headwinds and softer leisure demand remain persistent risks that traders should monitor in the coming weeks.
Earnings Summary
MGM Resorts International operates as a premier gaming and entertainment company, delivering casino resorts and digital platforms across the United States and China, with a focus on hospitality, gaming, dining, and entertainment venues. The firm sits within the consumer cyclical sector, specifically the resorts and casinos industry, where revenue is closely tied to leisure travel and discretionary spending. In the most recent quarters, MGM posted EPS of $0.45 in Q4 2024 and $0.69 in Q1 2025, both surpassing estimates of $0.33845 and $0.44713 respectively, while revenue rose to $4.35 billion and $4.28 billion, indicating a modest acceleration in top‑line growth. The following quarter, Q2 2025, saw EPS climb to $0.79 against an estimate of $0.54849, with revenue reaching $4.40 billion, continuing the upward trend; however, Q3 2025 EPS fell to $0.24 below the $0.29944 estimate, and revenue dipped to $4.25 billion, signaling a deceleration. Historically, MGM has maintained a YoY revenue growth trajectory, with consistent beats in earnings during the first two quarters of each year, though the Q3 2025 miss highlights volatility in profitability. The company’s record consolidated revenue in Q2 2025 contrasted with an EBITDA miss, sparking debate over valuation and earnings sustainability. Investors should watch for updates on the People Incorporated take‑private bid, as its progress could lift fair‑value estimates, and monitor guidance on capital outlays in Osaka and digital platform expansion, which will clarify execution risk. Additionally, keeping an eye on Las Vegas visitation metrics and digital gaming profitability will be key to assessing whether MGM can sustain its recent rally and maintain earnings momentum in the next reporting cycle.

EPS

EstBeatMiss
$0.15$0.33$0.51$0.69$0.87Q4'24Q1'25Q2'25Q3'25Q2'26Q3'26
QtrEstActual+/−
Q3'26$0.23 - -
Q2'26$0.58$0.59+1.9%
Q3'25$0.30$0.24-19.9%
Q2'25$0.55$0.79+44.0%
Q1'25$0.45$0.69+54.3%
Q4'24$0.34$0.45+33.0%

Revenue

EstBeatMiss
$4.2B$4.3B$4.4B$4.4B$4.5BQ4'24Q1'25Q2'25Q3'25Q2'26Q3'26
QtrEstActual+/−
Q3'26$4.3B - -
Q2'26$4.5B$4.5B-0.3%
Q3'25 - $4.3B -
Q2'25 - $4.4B -
Q1'25 - $4.3B -
Q4'24 - $4.3B -
Full Earnings BreakdownEstimates, actuals, guidance, and historical context
→

Market Data

MGM Stock Snapshot

SELL9/100
$39.27−$0.56 (1.4%)
Market cap
9.99B
P/E ratio
23.4
Day range
$39.20 – $39.83
News sentiment
32/100 · Bearish
Analyst target
$50.41 (+28.4%)
Consensus
Hold · 31 analysts
52-week range+40.2% off low · -23.9% from high
$28.01$51.59
Price $39.27 DailyIQ Est. $50.92

The trend on MGM is bearish, and the indicator set is confirming it rather than diverging. Thinner liquidity means moves can extend past what the fundamentals alone justify.

Reverse DCF

What growth is priced into MGM?

CHEAP

At today's price, MGM Resorts International needs to grow free cash flow about -8.3% a year for the next 10 years to justify its valuation at a 9.01% cost of capital. Over its actual history it has compounded free cash flow at 10.5% a year, so the market is asking for 18.8 percentage points below its own delivered rate. On that basis MGM looks priced below what its own growth record supports.

Implied FCF growth
-8.3%
Historical FCF CAGR
10.5%
Growth gap
-18.8 pts
Verdict
CHEAP
Discount rate (WACC)
9.01%
Beta
1.18

Behaviour On Record

What MGM's own history says about today's numbers

Realized volatility (21d)
17.9% 4th pct
Below its peak
-21.9%
vs 200-day average
-0.3%
Up days (1y)
43%

MGM Resorts International is currently running 17.9% annualised volatility over the last 21 sessions. Measured against MGM's own 13 years of daily returns rather than a market-wide average, that is the 4th percentile — unusually subdued by its own history, against a typical reading of 33.4%. The distinction matters because a number that looks calm for one stock is turbulent for another, and the absolute figure on its own tells you neither.

MGM is trading -21.9% below its running peak. Across 12 full years on file, its median worst-drawdown-in-a-year was -31.3%, and the deepest was -78.1% in 2020. The current pullback is therefore shallower than what this stock gives back in a typical year, which is context worth having before treating it as a dislocation.

Price sits -0.3% from its 200-day moving average. Against every other day in its history, that gap ranks at the 42nd percentile — close to the gap it normally carries. Over the past year MGM closed higher on 43% of sessions, and it is currently 3 sessions into a falling streak.

On September specifically: over 14 years of records, MGM finished the month higher 5 of 14 times, with a median return of -2.3% and an average of -2.4%. Its strongest month historically has been November at +5.4% on average, its weakest March at -4.1%. Seasonality is a weak signal on its own — a decade is a small sample and regimes change — but it is a real distribution rather than a rule of thumb.

Overnight risk is measurable too: MGM has opened more than 2% away from the prior close in 149 of 3,268 sessions (4.6% of the time), with the largest gaps running +12.0% and -13.2%. For anyone holding through an event, that rate is a better guide to overnight exposure than the intraday range.

All figures computed from 3,269 daily closes between 2013-09-16 and 2026-09-15, split-adjusted, recomputed daily. Percentiles are against MGM's own 13-year history, not a peer group or index.

Sector Rotation

Is money rotating into or out of MGM's sector?

MGM Resorts International sits in the Consumer Discretionary sector, currently ranked 9th of 11 GICS sectors by relative-strength rotation score (lagging).

Sector rank
#9 of 11
Sector state
Lagging
Sector rotation score
20

Options Market

What is the options market pricing for MGM?

CallsPuts

For MGM Resorts International's nearest expiry (2026-09-18, 3 days out), open interest is put-heavy, a defensive/bearish tilt (put/call ratio of 1.17), with at-the-money implied volatility around 63.3%. The options market is pricing roughly a ±4.9% move by that expiry — a range of about $37.57–$41.41.

Put/call ratio (2026-09-18)
1.17
ATM implied volatility
63.3%
Total open interest
58,089
Expected move by 2026-09-18
±4.9% ($37.57–$41.41)

Analyst Rating Changes

Are analysts turning bullish or bearish on MGM?

UBS most recently reiterated its rating on MGM Resorts International to Neutral on Sep 11, 2026 with a price target of $46 (from $50). Over the last 90 days, coverage has run 1 upgrade against 0 downgrades, a net bullish lean.

Latest action
UBS — Neutral
90-day upgrades
1
90-day downgrades
0
Net rating momentum
+1
DateFirmActionRatingPrice target
Sep 11, 2026UBSMaintainedNeutral$50 → $46
Aug 17, 2026MacquarieMaintainedOutperform$54 → $55
Aug 17, 2026Argus ResearchMaintainedBuy$45 → $55
Jul 30, 2026MacquarieMaintainedOutperform$52 → $54
Jul 29, 2026SusquehannaMaintainedPositive$52 → $53
Jul 9, 2026BarclaysMaintainedEqual-Weight$39 → $48
Jul 7, 2026Wells FargoUpgradeUnderweight → Equal-Weight$33 → $48
Jul 7, 2026MacquarieMaintainedOutperform$46 → $52
Jun 15, 2026StifelDowngradeBuy → Hold$48 → $49
Jun 12, 2026JP MorganMaintainedOverweight$46 → $53
Jun 4, 2026UBSMaintainedNeutral$39 → $50
Jun 3, 2026CBREDowngradeBuy → Hold$50

MGM Competitive Positioning

MGM Resorts International (MGM) is tracked alongside these names in Resorts & Casinos on DailyIQ — ranked by market cap, with today's move alongside.

Held by These ETFs

MGM is a top holding in these ETFs tracked on DailyIQ — bar length shows portfolio weight.