CFR·Cullen/Frost Bankers Inc.

Realized volatility (21d)

15.8% 10th pct

Below its peak

-9.6%

vs 200-day average

+5.0%

Up days (1y)

53%

Cullen/Frost Bankers Inc. is currently running 15.8% annualised volatility over the last 21 sessions. Measured against CFR's own 13 years of daily returns rather than a market-wide average, that is the 10th percentile — unusually subdued by its own history, against a typical reading of 24.9%. The distinction matters because a number that looks calm for one stock is turbulent for another, and the absolute figure on its own tells you neither.

CFR is trading -9.6% below its running peak. Across 12 full years on file, its median worst-drawdown-in-a-year was -25.1%, and the deepest was -49.7% in 2020. The current pullback is therefore shallower than what this stock gives back in a typical year, which is context worth having before treating it as a dislocation.

Price sits +5.0% from its 200-day moving average. Against every other day in its history, that gap ranks at the 59th percentile — a somewhat wider gap than its own norm. Over the past year CFR closed higher on 53% of sessions, and it is currently 1 session into a falling streak.

On October specifically: over 13 years of records, CFR finished the month higher 11 of 13 times, with a median return of +6.0% and an average of +5.5%. Its strongest month historically has been April at +5.8% on average, its weakest March at -3.9%. Seasonality is a weak signal on its own — a decade is a small sample and regimes change — but it is a real distribution rather than a rule of thumb.

Overnight risk is measurable too: CFR has opened more than 2% away from the prior close in 163 of 3,267 sessions (5.0% of the time), with the largest gaps running +12.4% and -17.9%. For anyone holding through an event, that rate is a better guide to overnight exposure than the intraday range.

All figures computed from 3,268 daily closes between 2013-10-07 and 2026-10-05, split-adjusted, recomputed daily. Percentiles are against CFR's own 13-year history, not a peer group or index.