MUSA·Murphy USA Inc.

Realized volatility (21d)

28.9% 63rd pct

Below its peak

-17.8%

vs 200-day average

+1.4%

Up days (1y)

55%

Murphy USA Inc. is currently running 28.9% annualised volatility over the last 21 sessions. Measured against MUSA's own 13 years of daily returns rather than a market-wide average, that is the 63rd percentile — a little above its own norm, against a typical reading of 25.5%. The distinction matters because a number that looks calm for one stock is turbulent for another, and the absolute figure on its own tells you neither.

MUSA is trading -17.8% below its running peak. Across 12 full years on file, its median worst-drawdown-in-a-year was -16.5%, and the deepest was -34.9% in 2015. The current drawdown is already deeper than this stock's typical annual low point, which puts it in the part of its range where past recoveries began — and where past declines also continued.

Price sits +1.4% from its 200-day moving average. Against every other day in its history, that gap ranks at the 28th percentile — a narrower gap than it typically runs. Over the past year MUSA closed higher on 55% of sessions, and it is currently 1 session into a falling streak.

On October specifically: over 13 years of records, MUSA finished the month higher 7 of 13 times, with a median return of +1.4% and an average of +4.4%. Its strongest month historically has been July at +4.9% on average, its weakest January at -1.1%. Seasonality is a weak signal on its own — a decade is a small sample and regimes change — but it is a real distribution rather than a rule of thumb.

Overnight risk is measurable too: MUSA has opened more than 2% away from the prior close in 79 of 3,267 sessions (2.4% of the time), with the largest gaps running +17.3% and -6.7%. For anyone holding through an event, that rate is a better guide to overnight exposure than the intraday range.

All figures computed from 3,268 daily closes between 2013-10-07 and 2026-10-05, split-adjusted, recomputed daily. Percentiles are against MUSA's own 13-year history, not a peer group or index.