NIO·NIO Inc. American depositary shares each representing one Class A

Realized volatility (21d)

35.3% 2nd pct

Below its peak

-94.4%

vs 200-day average

-29.6%

Up days (1y)

42%

NIO Inc. American depositary shares each representing one Class A is currently running 35.3% annualised volatility over the last 21 sessions. Measured against NIO's own 8 years of daily returns rather than a market-wide average, that is the 2nd percentile — unusually subdued by its own history, against a typical reading of 67.4%. The distinction matters because a number that looks calm for one stock is turbulent for another, and the absolute figure on its own tells you neither.

NIO is trading -94.4% below its running peak. Across 7 full years on file, its median worst-drawdown-in-a-year was -55.4%, and the deepest was -87.1% in 2019. The current drawdown is already deeper than this stock's typical annual low point, which puts it in the part of its range where past recoveries began — and where past declines also continued.

Price sits -29.6% from its 200-day moving average. Against every other day in its history, that gap ranks at the 27th percentile — a narrower gap than it typically runs. Over the past year NIO closed higher on 42% of sessions, and it is currently 1 session into a falling streak.

On October specifically: over 9 years of records, NIO finished the month higher 4 of 9 times, with a median return of -5.6% and an average of -2.6%. Its strongest month historically has been July at +19.2% on average, its weakest March at -11.3%. Seasonality is a weak signal on its own — a decade is a small sample and regimes change — but it is a real distribution rather than a rule of thumb.

Overnight risk is measurable too: NIO has opened more than 2% away from the prior close in 391 of 2,030 sessions (19.3% of the time), with the largest gaps running +12.5% and -13.7%. For anyone holding through an event, that rate is a better guide to overnight exposure than the intraday range.

All figures computed from 2,032 daily closes between 2018-09-12 and 2026-10-14, split-adjusted, recomputed daily. Percentiles are against NIO's own 8-year history, not a peer group or index.