DailyIQ
|
Last updatedUpdating…

PAG·Penske Automotive Group Inc.

$195.67
+1.00 (+0.51%)
Pre-Market
High
$195.66
Open
$195.66
Market Cap
12.65B
52W High
$227.00
Low
$195.51
P. Close
$195.67
P/E
13.52
52W Low
$140.12
Fwd P/E
13.90
DailyIQ Est.
$209.40
Inst. Ownership
12.1%
Short Interest
3.82%
Days to Cover
5.5
Div. Yield
2.88%
Next Ex-Div
~Nov 14
Technical Score (1D)
75
BULLISH
News Sentiment
56
BULLISH
PAG is running a strong trend on the 1D chart: BUY at 75 with strong momentum and constructive structure. Sentiment at 56 is aligned with the move, and the bearish MACD posture backs the continuation case. $203.33 is the next measured target; $187.69 is where trend buyers typically defend. The main thing that ends trends like this is a change in character, not a single red day - watch for strong momentum starting to roll over or a close back below $187.69 as the earlier warning signs, well before the BUY designation itself would flip. Until then, the path of least resistance stays toward $203.33.
LOW TARGET
$205 +4.8%
3 analysts
MEAN TARGET
$209 +7.1%
9 analysts
HIGH TARGET
$210 +7.4%
5 analysts
PRICE RANGE
$205.00 - $210.00
SB / B / H / S / SS
1/4/10/1/1
DAILYIQ EST.
$209.40 (+7.1%)
Bought (1Y)
0 shares
$0
Sold (1Y)
43,526 shares
$7.4M
SMITH GREG C-
Award/Grant144 shares2026-09-01
SCOTT RAYMOND E-
Award/Grant10 shares2026-09-01
Hoogendoorn David-
Award/Grant10 shares2026-09-01
Pierce Sandra E.-
Award/Grant80 shares2026-09-01
Duerheimer Wolfgang-
Award/Grant158 shares2026-09-01
View full insider trading history →
61/ 100
Neutral / mixed
Overall: Neutral
✓Revenue growing year over year
✓Positive net margin
✓Positive operating cash flow
Gross Margin
16.4%
Net Margin
2.9%
Revenue CAGR
6.1%
Current Ratio
0.99x
Debt / Equity
0.39x
Return on Equity
16.8%
View full financials →

EPS

EstBeatMiss
$3.20$3.26$3.32$3.37$3.43Q3'25Q3'26
QtrEstActual+/−
Q3'26$3.35 - -
Q3'25$3.40$3.23-5.0%

Revenue

EstBeatMiss
$7.6B$7.8B$8.0B$8.2B$8.4BQ3'25Q3'26
QtrEstActual+/−
Q3'26$8.3B - -
Q3'25 - $7.7B -
Full Earnings BreakdownEstimates, actuals, guidance, and historical context
→

Market Data

PAG Stock Snapshot

BULLISH75/100
$195.51−$0.63 (0.3%)
Market cap
12.65B
P/E ratio
13.5
Day range
$195.51 – $195.66
News sentiment
56/100 · Neutral
Analyst target
$209.38 (+7.1%)
Consensus
Hold · 17 analysts
52-week range+39.5% off low · -13.9% from high
$140.12$227.00
Price $195.51 DailyIQ Est. $209.40

Price is in the middle of its 52-week range, and the momentum read backs that positioning up. The stock is liquid enough that positioning changes get absorbed without distorting the trend.

Reverse DCF

What growth is priced into PAG?

CHEAP

At today's price, Penske Automotive Group Inc. needs to grow free cash flow about 6.4% a year for the next 10 years to justify its valuation at a 7.78% cost of capital. Over its actual history it has compounded free cash flow at 13.2% a year, so the market is asking for 6.8 percentage points below its own delivered rate. On that basis PAG looks priced below what its own growth record supports.

Implied FCF growth
6.4%
Historical FCF CAGR
13.2%
Growth gap
-6.8 pts
Verdict
CHEAP
Discount rate (WACC)
7.78%
Beta
0.72

Behaviour On Record

What PAG's own history says about today's numbers

Realized volatility (21d)
17.7% 6th pct
Below its peak
-12.5%
vs 200-day average
+8.8%
Up days (1y)
47%

Penske Automotive Group Inc. is currently running 17.7% annualised volatility over the last 21 sessions. Measured against PAG's own 13 years of daily returns rather than a market-wide average, that is the 6th percentile — unusually subdued by its own history, against a typical reading of 28.9%. The distinction matters because a number that looks calm for one stock is turbulent for another, and the absolute figure on its own tells you neither.

PAG is trading -12.5% below its running peak. Across 12 full years on file, its median worst-drawdown-in-a-year was -22.8%, and the deepest was -59.8% in 2020. The current pullback is therefore shallower than what this stock gives back in a typical year, which is context worth having before treating it as a dislocation.

Price sits +8.8% from its 200-day moving average. Against every other day in its history, that gap ranks at the 67th percentile — a somewhat wider gap than its own norm. Over the past year PAG closed higher on 47% of sessions, and it is currently 1 session into a falling streak.

On October specifically: over 14 years of records, PAG finished the month higher 6 of 14 times, with a median return of -2.0% and an average of -0.8%. Its strongest month historically has been April at +7.4% on average, its weakest March at -4.0%. Seasonality is a weak signal on its own — a decade is a small sample and regimes change — but it is a real distribution rather than a rule of thumb.

Overnight risk is measurable too: PAG has opened more than 2% away from the prior close in 179 of 3,268 sessions (5.5% of the time), with the largest gaps running +10.0% and -22.2%. For anyone holding through an event, that rate is a better guide to overnight exposure than the intraday range.

All figures computed from 3,269 daily closes between 2013-10-15 and 2026-10-14, split-adjusted, recomputed daily. Percentiles are against PAG's own 13-year history, not a peer group or index.

Sector Rotation

Is money rotating into or out of PAG's sector?

Penske Automotive Group Inc. sits in the Consumer Discretionary sector, currently ranked 6th of 12 GICS sectors by relative-strength rotation score (improving). Within its narrower Retail industry group, PAG ranks 5th of 15 tracked industries, improving.

Sector rank
#6 of 12
Sector state
Improving
Sector rotation score
55
Industry rank
#5 of 15

Options Market

What is the options market pricing for PAG?

CallsPuts

For Penske Automotive Group Inc.'s nearest expiry (2026-10-16, 2 days out), open interest is put-heavy, a defensive/bearish tilt (put/call ratio of 39.14), with at-the-money implied volatility around 6.3%. The options market is pricing roughly a ±0.5% move by that expiry — a range of about $200.06–$201.92.

Put/call ratio (2026-10-16)
39.14
ATM implied volatility
6.3%
Total open interest
1,124
Expected move by 2026-10-16
±0.5% ($200.06–$201.92)

Analyst Rating Changes

Are analysts turning bullish or bearish on PAG?

JP Morgan most recently reiterated its rating on Penske Automotive Group Inc. to Neutral on Oct 6, 2026 with a price target of $210 (from $215). Over the last 90 days, coverage has run 0 upgrades against 4 downgrades, a net bearish lean.

Latest action
JP Morgan — Neutral
90-day upgrades
0
90-day downgrades
4
Net rating momentum
-4
DateFirmActionRatingPrice target
Oct 6, 2026JP MorganMaintainedNeutral$215 → $210
Oct 6, 2026BarclaysMaintainedOverweight$225 → $210
Aug 19, 2026BarclaysMaintainedOverweight$220 → $225
Aug 4, 2026JP MorganMaintainedNeutral$170 → $215
Aug 3, 2026Stephens & Co.MaintainedEqual-Weight$166 → $210
Jul 24, 2026Morgan StanleyDowngradeOverweight → Equal-Weight$190 → $210
Jul 23, 2026CitigroupDowngradeBuy → Neutral$199 → $210
Jul 23, 2026BenchmarkDowngradeBuy → Hold-
Jul 22, 2026BenchmarkDowngradeBuy → Hold-
Jul 15, 2026BarclaysMaintainedOverweight$190 → $220
Jul 10, 2026UBSMaintainedNeutral$167 → $192
Jul 9, 2026B of A SecuritiesMaintainedBuy$200 → $238

ETF holders

ETFs holding PAG

Top ETF holdersWeight

News Sentiment Analysis

Sentiment gathered from recent headlines

56/100
Strong NegativeNeutralStrong Positive
MODERATELY BULLISH

Recent News Coverage

Most recent articles, ranked by recency (click to expand).

10+ articles
What did this article say?
Penske Automotive Group (PAG) reported a robust 10.4k‑unit backlog for its Premier Truck Group, expected to drive second‑half earnings. Management noted that while gross profit per unit is declining, higher service and parts margins help offset rising SG&A costs. The company’s $210 per share acquisition offer remains non‑binding with a 70% completion probability, and the market has already priced in a modest premium. Overall, the backlog provides a positive tailwind for H2, but the acquisition uncertainty tempers upside expectations.
What did this article say?
JP Morgan analyst Rajat Gupta reduced Penske Automotive Group’s (NYSE:PAG) price target from $215 to $210 while keeping a neutral stance. The downgrade reflects a reassessment of the company’s valuation relative to peers. The move signals a modest negative outlook for PAG’s stock, though the overall market view remains unchanged.
What did this article say?
Barclays analyst John Babcock reduced Penske Automotive Group’s (NYSE:PAG) price target from $225 to $210 while keeping an Overweight rating. The downgrade reflects a reassessment of the company’s valuation relative to peers. The move signals a modest negative outlook for PAG’s near‑term earnings potential. Investors may view the adjustment as a cautionary signal amid market volatility. The rating change does not alter the fundamental view of PAG’s business model.
What did this article say?
Penske Automotive Group (PAG) closed at $209.66, a slight decline of 3.9% over the past month. The company’s year‑to‑date share price return remained robust at 32.6%, and its five‑year total shareholder return stood at 118.7%, underscoring long‑term momentum. Analysts noted that the recent pullback may provide a buying opportunity for investors seeking a quality operator with steady cash flows. The market’s focus remains on PAG’s size, earnings profile, and comparative valuation against other undervalued stocks.
What did this article say?
Penske Automotive Group reported Q2 revenue that fell short of analyst consensus, contributing to a broader decline in vehicle retailer stocks. The miss reflects softer demand and higher operating costs, but the company’s diversified global footprint and strong inventory management mitigate immediate risk.
What did this article say?
Penske Automotive Group (PAG) is highlighted in a Zacks industry outlook that underscores the mixed environment for auto retailers. The report notes resilient demand but warns that tightening inventory, higher borrowing costs, and fading federal EV incentives could dampen sales momentum. PAG’s strategy of acquisitions, digitization, and capital returns is positioned to navigate these headwinds, yet the overall tone remains cautious.
What did this article say?
PAG’s sales outlook remains solid as auto demand stays resilient despite tightening inventory and higher borrowing costs. The company’s strategic initiatives, such as expanding digital sales channels and optimizing inventory turnover, help mitigate the impact of rising prices. While the macro environment poses headwinds, PAG’s operational adjustments position it to capture market share and sustain profitability.
What did this article say?
Penske Automotive (PAG) reported Q2 2026 adjusted earnings of $3.62 per share, beating the consensus estimate of $3.38 and marking a 4.2% decline from the prior year. Revenue rose 6% YoY to $8.51 billion, exceeding the $7.93 billion estimate, driven by a 5% increase in same‑store new and used vehicle sales. Gross margin on service and parts improved by 80 basis points to 59.5%, supporting stronger profitability. The results suggest a modest upside for the business, though the earnings decline relative to last year tempers enthusiasm.
What did this article say?
Penske Automotive (NYSE: PAG) participated in a NYSE pre‑market briefing on August 21, 2026, alongside McLaren and other high‑profile guests. The session focused on the upcoming Freedom 250 Grand Prix, the first IndyCar race on the National Mall, and included remarks from President Donald Trump and First Lady Melania Trump. No new financial guidance, earnings data, or material corporate actions were disclosed, leaving PAG’s valuation unchanged. The briefing serves primarily as a marketing and visibility event rather than a catalyst for price movement.

Technical Analysis

Real-time indicators across multiple timeframes

75
BULLISH
Momentum rank against about 1,000 stocks and ETFs for this timeframe.
Unlock full technicals
Create a free account to access more indicators and deeper timeframe data.
Institutional & Hedge Fund Ownership
25 tracked managers · $1.37B combined position · 12 adding, 12 trimming, 1 unchanged (latest 13F filings)
ManagerTrendShares Held% of Co.Position ValueFiled
BlackRock, Inc.▼ Sell2,333,1443.60%$417.52M2026-08-07
Vanguard Group Inc▼ Sell1,698,1332.62%$268.80M2026-01-29
Morgan Stanley▲ Buy584,7510.90%$104.64M2026-08-13
AQR Capital Management LLC▼ Sell456,0430.70%$81.61M2026-08-14
Bank of America Corp▼ Sell441,8290.68%$79.07M2026-08-14
Goldman Sachs Group Inc▲ Buy385,7520.60%$69.03M2026-08-14
Geode Capital Management, LLC▲ Buy355,1570.55%$63.57M2026-08-12
Invesco Ltd.▲ Buy241,2870.37%$43.18M2026-08-14
Norges Bank▼ Sell200,5750.31%$35.89M2026-08-12
Millennium Management LLC▲ Buy168,7760.26%$30.20M2026-08-14
FMR LLC (Fidelity)▲ Buy152,6150.24%$27.31M2026-08-13
Northern Trust Corp▼ Sell148,9140.23%$26.65M2026-08-13
Citigroup Inc▲ Buy125,6050.19%$22.48M2026-08-03
JPMorgan Chase & Co▲ Buy116,5800.18%$21.14M2026-08-12
D. E. Shaw & Co., Inc.▼ Sell117,9830.18%$21.11M2026-08-14
Gotham Asset Management, LLC▲ Buy111,9400.17%$20.03M2026-08-14
Squarepoint Ops LLC▼ Sell78,6660.12%$14.08M2026-08-14
Renaissance Technologies LLC▼ Sell51,7000.08%$9.25M2026-08-13
AllianceBernstein L.P.▼ Sell21,2370.03%$3.18M2026-08-14
Citadel Advisors LLC▼ Sell11,9060.02%$2.13M2026-09-02
Wells Fargo & Company▲ Buy11,5120.02%$2.06M2026-08-14
Allstate Corp▲ Buy8,1360.01%$1.46M2026-08-13
Two Sigma Investments, LP▼ Sell7,1970.01%$1.29M2026-08-14
Neuberger Berman Group LLC▲ Buy7,1900.01%$1.29M2026-08-13
Janus Henderson Group plc• Hold8,4720.01%$1.27M2026-05-18
Q2 2026 flow:357.0K sh bought ($63.95M)324.7K sh sold ($58.07M)net +32.3K sh (+$5.89M)
View full institutional holdings history →

Discover More

TJX
The TJX Companies, Inc.
$141.78
+0.21%
HD
The Home Depot, Inc.
$297.11
+0.95%
CPRT
Copart, Inc.
$26.50
+0.30%
XLY
Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR Fund
$112.85
+0.76%
CMG
Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.
$30.50
+0.16%
EBAY
eBay Inc.
$116.20
-0.15%
XRT
SPDR S&P Retail ETF
$84.10
-0.28%
CVNA
Carvana Co.
$60.44
+0.17%
BKNG
Booking Holdings Inc.
$157.80
+0.25%
MUSA
Murphy USA Inc.
$523.00
-0.04%