TFII·TFI International Inc.

Realized volatility (21d)

25.6% 42nd pct

Below its peak

-30.1%

vs 200-day average

-11.7%

Up days (1y)

53%

TFI International Inc. is currently running 25.6% annualised volatility over the last 21 sessions. Measured against TFII's own 13 years of daily returns rather than a market-wide average, that is the 42nd percentile — close to its own typical level, against a typical reading of 27.8%. The distinction matters because a number that looks calm for one stock is turbulent for another, and the absolute figure on its own tells you neither.

TFII is trading -30.1% below its running peak. Across 12 full years on file, its median worst-drawdown-in-a-year was -24.8%, and the deepest was -52.8% in 2020. The current drawdown is already deeper than this stock's typical annual low point, which puts it in the part of its range where past recoveries began — and where past declines also continued.

Price sits -11.7% from its 200-day moving average. Against every other day in its history, that gap ranks at the 14th percentile — a narrower gap than it typically runs. Over the past year TFII closed higher on 53% of sessions, and it is currently 1 session into a falling streak.

On October specifically: over 13 years of records, TFII finished the month higher 8 of 13 times, with a median return of +2.6% and an average of +1.1%. Its strongest month historically has been July at +8.1% on average, its weakest September at -4.0%. Seasonality is a weak signal on its own — a decade is a small sample and regimes change — but it is a real distribution rather than a rule of thumb.

Overnight risk is measurable too: TFII has opened more than 2% away from the prior close in 343 of 3,266 sessions (10.5% of the time), with the largest gaps running +10.6% and -38.5%. For anyone holding through an event, that rate is a better guide to overnight exposure than the intraday range.

All figures computed from 3,267 daily closes between 2013-10-14 and 2026-10-09, split-adjusted, recomputed daily. Percentiles are against TFII's own 13-year history, not a peer group or index.