AAOI·Applied Optoelectronics Inc.

Realized volatility (21d)

89.0% 68th pct

Below its peak

-57.4%

vs 200-day average

-13.9%

Up days (1y)

48%

Applied Optoelectronics Inc. is currently running 89.0% annualised volatility over the last 21 sessions. Measured against AAOI's own 13 years of daily returns rather than a market-wide average, that is the 68th percentile — a little above its own norm, against a typical reading of 73.6%. The distinction matters because a number that looks calm for one stock is turbulent for another, and the absolute figure on its own tells you neither.

AAOI is trading -57.4% below its running peak. Across 12 full years on file, its median worst-drawdown-in-a-year was -63.7%, and the deepest was -73.7% in 2025. The current pullback is therefore shallower than what this stock gives back in a typical year, which is context worth having before treating it as a dislocation.

Price sits -13.9% from its 200-day moving average. Against every other day in its history, that gap ranks at the 40th percentile — close to the gap it normally carries. Over the past year AAOI closed higher on 48% of sessions, and it is currently 3 sessions into a falling streak.

On October specifically: over 14 years of records, AAOI finished the month higher 7 of 14 times, with a median return of -3.9% and an average of -3.1%. Its strongest month historically has been June at +15.6% on average, its weakest March at -7.7%. Seasonality is a weak signal on its own — a decade is a small sample and regimes change — but it is a real distribution rather than a rule of thumb.

Overnight risk is measurable too: AAOI has opened more than 2% away from the prior close in 579 of 3,269 sessions (17.7% of the time), with the largest gaps running +12.1% and -19.0%. For anyone holding through an event, that rate is a better guide to overnight exposure than the intraday range.

All figures computed from 3,270 daily closes between 2013-10-15 and 2026-10-14, split-adjusted, recomputed daily. Percentiles are against AAOI's own 13-year history, not a peer group or index.