AAOI·Applied Optoelectronics Inc.

Realized volatility (21d)

76.7% 55th pct

Below its peak

-46.4%

vs 200-day average

+11.2%

Up days (1y)

49%

Applied Optoelectronics Inc. is currently running 76.7% annualised volatility over the last 21 sessions. Measured against AAOI's own 13 years of daily returns rather than a market-wide average, that is the 55th percentile — close to its own typical level, against a typical reading of 73.3%. The distinction matters because a number that looks calm for one stock is turbulent for another, and the absolute figure on its own tells you neither.

AAOI is trading -46.4% below its running peak. Across 12 full years on file, its median worst-drawdown-in-a-year was -63.7%, and the deepest was -73.7% in 2025. The current pullback is therefore shallower than what this stock gives back in a typical year, which is context worth having before treating it as a dislocation.

Price sits +11.2% from its 200-day moving average. Against every other day in its history, that gap ranks at the 65th percentile — a somewhat wider gap than its own norm. Over the past year AAOI closed higher on 49% of sessions, and it is currently 3 sessions into a rising streak.

On October specifically: over 13 years of records, AAOI finished the month higher 7 of 13 times, with a median return of +0.7% and an average of -2.5%. Its strongest month historically has been June at +15.6% on average, its weakest March at -7.7%. Seasonality is a weak signal on its own — a decade is a small sample and regimes change — but it is a real distribution rather than a rule of thumb.

Overnight risk is measurable too: AAOI has opened more than 2% away from the prior close in 581 of 3,268 sessions (17.8% of the time), with the largest gaps running +12.1% and -19.0%. For anyone holding through an event, that rate is a better guide to overnight exposure than the intraday range.

All figures computed from 3,269 daily closes between 2013-10-07 and 2026-10-05, split-adjusted, recomputed daily. Percentiles are against AAOI's own 13-year history, not a peer group or index.