AER·AerCap Holdings N.V.

Realized volatility (21d)

21.1% 31st pct

Below its peak

-7.5%

vs 200-day average

-0.0%

Up days (1y)

51%

AerCap Holdings N.V. is currently running 21.1% annualised volatility over the last 21 sessions. Measured against AER's own 13 years of daily returns rather than a market-wide average, that is the 31st percentile — on the quiet side for this stock, against a typical reading of 27.4%. The distinction matters because a number that looks calm for one stock is turbulent for another, and the absolute figure on its own tells you neither.

AER is trading -7.5% below its running peak. Across 12 full years on file, its median worst-drawdown-in-a-year was -23.9%, and the deepest was -75.3% in 2020. The current pullback is therefore shallower than what this stock gives back in a typical year, which is context worth having before treating it as a dislocation.

Price sits -0.0% from its 200-day moving average. Against every other day in its history, that gap ranks at the 29th percentile — a narrower gap than it typically runs. Over the past year AER closed higher on 51% of sessions, and it is currently 2 sessions into a falling streak.

On October specifically: over 14 years of records, AER finished the month higher 10 of 14 times, with a median return of +2.7% and an average of +3.1%. Its strongest month historically has been December at +6.7% on average, its weakest March at -2.4%. Seasonality is a weak signal on its own — a decade is a small sample and regimes change — but it is a real distribution rather than a rule of thumb.

Overnight risk is measurable too: AER has opened more than 2% away from the prior close in 241 of 3,267 sessions (7.4% of the time), with the largest gaps running +18.6% and -12.8%. For anyone holding through an event, that rate is a better guide to overnight exposure than the intraday range.

All figures computed from 3,268 daily closes between 2013-10-15 and 2026-10-14, split-adjusted, recomputed daily. Percentiles are against AER's own 13-year history, not a peer group or index.