ARCC·Ares Capital Corporation

Realized volatility (21d)

14.7% 50th pct

Below its peak

-21.0%

vs 200-day average

-2.0%

Up days (1y)

51%

Ares Capital Corporation is currently running 14.7% annualised volatility over the last 21 sessions. Measured against ARCC's own 13 years of daily returns rather than a market-wide average, that is the 50th percentile — close to its own typical level, against a typical reading of 14.7%. The distinction matters because a number that looks calm for one stock is turbulent for another, and the absolute figure on its own tells you neither.

ARCC is trading -21.0% below its running peak. Across 12 full years on file, its median worst-drawdown-in-a-year was -15.1%, and the deepest was -52.5% in 2020. The current drawdown is already deeper than this stock's typical annual low point, which puts it in the part of its range where past recoveries began — and where past declines also continued.

Price sits -2.0% from its 200-day moving average. Against every other day in its history, that gap ranks at the 35th percentile — close to the gap it normally carries. Over the past year ARCC closed higher on 51% of sessions, and it is currently 4 sessions into a falling streak.

On October specifically: over 13 years of records, ARCC finished the month higher 6 of 13 times, with a median return of -0.6% and an average of +0.9%. Its strongest month historically has been November at +3.1% on average, its weakest March at -4.2%. Seasonality is a weak signal on its own — a decade is a small sample and regimes change — but it is a real distribution rather than a rule of thumb.

Overnight risk is measurable too: ARCC has opened more than 2% away from the prior close in 90 of 3,267 sessions (2.8% of the time), with the largest gaps running +6.6% and -5.6%. For anyone holding through an event, that rate is a better guide to overnight exposure than the intraday range.

All figures computed from 3,268 daily closes between 2013-10-07 and 2026-10-05, split-adjusted, recomputed daily. Percentiles are against ARCC's own 13-year history, not a peer group or index.