ARCC·Ares Capital Corporation

Realized volatility (21d)

12.4% 32nd pct

Below its peak

-22.0%

vs 200-day average

-3.1%

Up days (1y)

50%

Ares Capital Corporation is currently running 12.4% annualised volatility over the last 21 sessions. Measured against ARCC's own 13 years of daily returns rather than a market-wide average, that is the 32nd percentile — on the quiet side for this stock, against a typical reading of 14.7%. The distinction matters because a number that looks calm for one stock is turbulent for another, and the absolute figure on its own tells you neither.

ARCC is trading -22.0% below its running peak. Across 12 full years on file, its median worst-drawdown-in-a-year was -15.1%, and the deepest was -52.5% in 2020. The current drawdown is already deeper than this stock's typical annual low point, which puts it in the part of its range where past recoveries began — and where past declines also continued.

Price sits -3.1% from its 200-day moving average. Against every other day in its history, that gap ranks at the 29th percentile — a narrower gap than it typically runs. Over the past year ARCC closed higher on 50% of sessions, and it is currently 1 session into a rising streak.

On October specifically: over 14 years of records, ARCC finished the month higher 6 of 14 times, with a median return of -0.8% and an average of +0.6%. Its strongest month historically has been November at +3.1% on average, its weakest March at -4.2%. Seasonality is a weak signal on its own — a decade is a small sample and regimes change — but it is a real distribution rather than a rule of thumb.

Overnight risk is measurable too: ARCC has opened more than 2% away from the prior close in 90 of 3,268 sessions (2.8% of the time), with the largest gaps running +6.6% and -5.6%. For anyone holding through an event, that rate is a better guide to overnight exposure than the intraday range.

All figures computed from 3,269 daily closes between 2013-10-15 and 2026-10-14, split-adjusted, recomputed daily. Percentiles are against ARCC's own 13-year history, not a peer group or index.