Caseys General Stores, Inc. (CASY) Stock Price, News, Analysis

Technical Score (1D)

SELL

News Sentiment

BULLISH

The most recent development is the sharp 16 % sell‑off that followed Casey’s Q1 earnings, where the company posted a 27 % jump in GAAP net income and a 17 % rise in EBITDA, yet investors balked at the sustainability of the fuel‑margin lift and the slowdown in same‑store sales growth to 3.2 % YoY. The earnings beat was offset by the market’s concern that the 19.6 % increase in fuel gross profit, while impressive, may reverse as fuel margins trend back toward the low‑40‑cent range, a scenario already reflected in UBS’s price‑target cut to $720 and Evercore’s downgrade to an Outperform rating with a $775 target. The same‑store sales slowdown, coupled with rising vendor costs in the Grocery & General Merchandise segment, signals a potential drag on future revenue growth, which is why several banks—including KeyBanc, BMO, and Stephens—have trimmed their targets despite maintaining overweight or buy ratings. In contrast, Deutsche Bank and Raymond James have nudged their targets higher, citing confidence in the company’s expansion strategy and the strength of prepared‑food traffic, but these upgrades are tempered by the broader margin pressure narrative. Over the next 1–10 trading days, traders should watch for any revision to the fiscal 2027 guidance, particularly the 2 %–5 % same‑store sales growth range that the CFO reiterated, as a tightening of that range could further erode sentiment. Additionally, the timing of fuel price volatility will be critical; a rebound in gasoline prices could temporarily lift margins, but if the low‑40‑cent range persists, the upside will be limited. Finally, keep an eye on competitive dynamics in the convenience‑store sector, as intensified price wars or new entrants could exacerbate margin compression and influence the next earnings cycle.

CASY|Analyst Targets

LOW TARGET

$687 +15.1%

2 analysts

MEAN TARGET

$808 +35.3%

13 analysts

HIGH TARGET

$950 +59.1%

14 analysts

PRICE RANGE

$687.00 - $950.00

SB / B / H / S / SS

9/10/8/1/1

DAILYIQ EST.

$830.13 (+39.0%)

CASY|Company Info

Sector

Consumer Cyclical

Industry

Specialty Retail

Exchange

NMS

Country

United States

Website

caseys.com

Symbol

CASY

Description

Casey's General Stores operates a network of convenience stores across the United States, primarily under the Casey's brand. The company's core business centers on providing a wide array of food and beverage options, including pizza, donuts, and various breakfast, lunch, and dinner items. Complementing its food offerings, Casey's stores also sell a selection of tobacco products, snacks, and beverages, along with essential household and automotive products. A key component of Casey's value proposition is the sale of motor fuels, offered on a self-service basis, alongside additional services like ATMs and lottery tickets. Founded in 1959 and headquartered in Ankeny, Iowa, Casey's strategically leverages its distribution centers to efficiently serve its extensive store network.

CASY|Insider Trading

Bought (1Y)

256 shares

$199K

Sold (1Y)

87,951 shares

$74.4M

Donthi Sri-

Option Exercise326 shares2026-09-02

Donthi Sri-

Award/Grant220 shares2026-09-02

Donthi Sri-

Option Exercise326 shares2026-09-02

Wing Allison M.-

Option Exercise326 shares2026-09-02

Wing Allison M.-

Award/Grant220 shares2026-09-02

CASY|Fundamentals

Bullish

Verdict: Bullish

✓Revenue growing year over year

✓Positive net margin

✓Positive operating cash flow

Gross Margin

24.6%

Net Margin

4.1%

Revenue CAGR

8.1%

Current Ratio

1.01x

Debt / Equity

0.62x

Return on Equity

18.1%

CASY|Earnings Snapshot

Earnings Summary

Casey's General Stores operates a nationwide network of convenience stores, offering food, beverages, tobacco, household items, and self‑service motor fuels, with ancillary services such as ATMs and lottery tickets. The company operates in the consumer cyclical specialty retail sector, where same‑store sales and fuel margins are key performance drivers. In Q4 2024, Casey’s reported EPS of $2.33 versus an estimate of $2.06, and revenue of $3.90 billion, indicating a modest revenue increase from the prior quarter and a solid earnings beat. The company’s Q4 2026 results showed EPS of $4.37 against an estimate of $3.32 and revenue of $4.57 billion versus an estimate of $4.39 billion, continuing the trend of earnings outperformance and revenue growth. Historically, Casey’s has maintained a consistent pattern of beating EPS estimates in recent quarters while revenue growth has accelerated, with Q1 2027 revenue slightly below estimates but EPS still above expectations. Recent news highlights Jim Cramer’s characterization of Casey’s as a “perfect bellwether” for consumer spending, noting that a drop in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve could signal a retail slowdown; the company’s Q1 earnings showed a sharp earnings jump but investors reacted negatively due to concerns that the temporary fuel‑margin lift may reverse and same‑store sales growth has slowed to 3.2% YoY. Analysts have cut price targets amid margin pressure, while some have raised outlooks based on confidence in the convenience‑store segment, underscoring mixed sentiment. Investors should watch for any adjustment to the fiscal 2027 guidance in the upcoming second‑quarter update, as changes would clarify the company’s trajectory, and monitor fuel‑price volatility and vendor‑cost trends, which directly affect profitability and could amplify current headwinds.

Read full report

EPS

EstBeatMiss

Qtr	Est	Actual	+/−
Q3'26	$2.89	-	-
Q1'27	$6.74	$7.37	+9.3%
Q4'26	$3.32	$4.37	+31.6%
Q4'24	$2.06	$2.33	+13.0%

Revenue

EstBeatMiss

Qtr	Est	Actual	+/−
Q3'26	$4.1B	-	-
Q1'27	$5.7B	$5.7B	-0.2%
Q4'26	$4.4B	$4.6B	+4.2%
Q4'24	-	$3.9B	-

Full Earnings BreakdownEstimates, actuals, guidance, and historical context

→

CASY|Monthly Returns

Market Data

CASY Stock Snapshot

SELL27/100

$597.15+$0.14 (0.0%)

Market cap: 22.88B
P/E ratio: 29.6
Day range: $596.83 – $612.00
News sentiment: 65/100 · Bullish
Analyst target: $807.63 (+35.2%)
Consensus: Buy · 29 analysts

52-week range+20.1% off low · -35.8% from high

$497.38$930.14

Price $597.15 DailyIQ Est. $830.13

CASY's technical picture is under pressure, with momentum working against price. Institutional coverage is thorough here, so shifts in analyst expectations show up in price quickly.

Reverse DCF

What growth is priced into CASY?

CHEAP

At today's price, Caseys General Stores, Inc. needs to grow free cash flow about 13.7% a year for the next 10 years to justify its valuation at a 7.45% cost of capital. Over its actual history it has compounded free cash flow at 20.9% a year, so the market is asking for 7.2 percentage points below its own delivered rate. On that basis CASY looks priced below what its own growth record supports.

Implied FCF growth: 13.7%
Historical FCF CAGR: 20.9%
Growth gap: -7.2 pts
Verdict: CHEAP
Discount rate (WACC): 7.45%
Beta: 0.60

Behaviour On Record

What CASY's own history says about today's numbers

Realized volatility (21d): 53.2% 98th pct
Below its peak: -35.1%
vs 200-day average: -18.1%
Up days (1y): 49%

Caseys General Stores, Inc. is currently running 53.2% annualised volatility over the last 21 sessions. Measured against CASY's own 13 years of daily returns rather than a market-wide average, that is the 98th percentile — an extreme by its own standards, against a typical reading of 21.5%. The distinction matters because a number that looks calm for one stock is turbulent for another, and the absolute figure on its own tells you neither.

CASY is trading -35.1% below its running peak. Across 12 full years on file, its median worst-drawdown-in-a-year was -14.8%, and the deepest was -33.4% in 2020. The current drawdown is already deeper than this stock's typical annual low point, which puts it in the part of its range where past recoveries began — and where past declines also continued.

Price sits -18.1% from its 200-day moving average. Against every other day in its history, that gap ranks at the 0th percentile — a narrower gap than it typically runs. Over the past year CASY closed higher on 49% of sessions, and it is currently 1 session into a falling streak.

On September specifically: over 13 years of records, CASY finished the month higher 7 of 13 times, with a median return of +0.2% and an average of -0.2%. Its strongest month historically has been November at +4.8% on average, its weakest December at -2.1%. Seasonality is a weak signal on its own — a decade is a small sample and regimes change — but it is a real distribution rather than a rule of thumb.

Overnight risk is measurable too: CASY has opened more than 2% away from the prior close in 62 of 3,268 sessions (1.9% of the time), with the largest gaps running +5.0% and -12.2%. For anyone holding through an event, that rate is a better guide to overnight exposure than the intraday range.

Across the last 3 dated reports on file, CASY moved an average of 8.8% in the session after earnings, closing higher 1 of those 3 times, with a median move of -3.6% and a largest of +16.6%.

All figures computed from 3,269 daily closes between 2013-09-19 and 2026-09-18, split-adjusted, recomputed daily. Percentiles are against CASY's own 13-year history, not a peer group or index.

Sector Rotation

Is money rotating into or out of CASY's sector?

Caseys General Stores, Inc. sits in the Consumer Discretionary sector, currently ranked 10th of 11 GICS sectors by relative-strength rotation score (improving). Within its narrower Retail industry group, CASY ranks 8th of 15 tracked industries, lagging.

Sector rank: #10 of 11
Sector state: Improving
Sector rotation score: 10
Industry rank: #8 of 15

Options Market

What is the options market pricing for CASY?

CallsPuts

For Caseys General Stores, Inc.'s nearest expiry (2026-10-16, 27 days out), open interest is roughly balanced between puts and calls (put/call ratio of 0.93), with at-the-money implied volatility around 41.0%. The options market is pricing roughly a ±10.2% move by that expiry — a range of about $528.70–$648.66.

Put/call ratio (2026-10-16): 0.93
ATM implied volatility: 41.0%
Total open interest: 1,466
Expected move by 2026-10-16: ±10.2% ($528.70–$648.66)

Analyst Rating Changes

Are analysts turning bullish or bearish on CASY?

Evercore ISI Group most recently reiterated its rating on Caseys General Stores, Inc. to Outperform on Sep 11, 2026 with a price target of $775 (from $880). Over the last 90 days, coverage has run 2 upgrades against 0 downgrades, a net bullish lean.

Latest action: Evercore ISI Group — Outperform
90-day upgrades: 2
90-day downgrades: 0
Net rating momentum: +2

Date	Firm	Action	Rating	Price target
Sep 11, 2026	Evercore ISI Group	Maintained	Outperform	$880 → $775
Sep 10, 2026	Raymond James	Upgrade	Market Perform → Outperform	$750
Sep 10, 2026	UBS	Maintained	Neutral	$925 → $720
Sep 10, 2026	Keybanc	Maintained	Overweight	$970 → $780
Sep 9, 2026	Wells Fargo	Maintained	Overweight	$960 → $750
Sep 9, 2026	RBC Capital	Maintained	Sector Perform	$913 → $910
Sep 9, 2026	Stephens & Co.	Reiterated	Overweight	$975
Sep 3, 2026	JP Morgan	Maintained	Neutral	$975 → $833
Aug 27, 2026	UBS	Maintained	Neutral	$945 → $925
Jun 29, 2026	BMO Capital	Upgrade	Market Perform → Outperform	$950
Jun 25, 2026	BNP Paribas	Maintained	Outperform	$1032 → $995
Jun 25, 2026	Goldman Sachs	Maintained	Neutral	$695 → $795

CASY Competitive Positioning

Caseys General Stores, Inc. (CASY) is tracked alongside these names in Specialty Retail on DailyIQ — ranked by market cap, with today's move alongside.

CASYyou're hereCaseys General Stores, Inc.$22.9B+0.02%
AZOAutoZone, Inc.$46.6B+0.01%
ULTAUlta Beauty, Inc.$22.7B-0.02%
BBYBest Buy Co., Inc.$19.8B+0.18%
TSCOTractor Supply Company$17.3B+0.25%
GMEGameStop Corp.$11.3B-0.22%

Held by These ETFs

CASY is a top holding in these ETFs tracked on DailyIQ — bar length shows portfolio weight.

News Sentiment Analysis

Sentiment gathered from recent headlines

65/100

Strong NegativeNeutralStrong Positive

MODERATELY BULLISH

Recent News Coverage

Most recent articles, ranked by recency (click to expand).

10+ articles

What did this article say?

Casey's General Stores (CASY) posted a strong first‑quarter fiscal 2027 with sales of $5.68 billion and net income of $273.7 million, exceeding expectations. The company approved a $0.65 per‑share quarterly dividend and reaffirmed its share‑repurchase program. Management outlined plans to open at least 120 new stores, signaling aggressive growth. These moves suggest a bullish outlook for CASY’s revenue trajectory and shareholder returns. Investors should monitor how the expansion impacts operating margins and whether the dividend policy remains sustainable.

What did this article say?

On September 9, Jim Cramer highlighted Casey’s General Stores (CASY) as a "perfect bellwether" for consumer spending during his Mad Money episode. He linked the decline in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve—down 31% from 415 million to 286 million barrels—to broader economic pressures that could dampen retail sales. The commentary suggests that CASY’s performance may foreshadow shifts in consumer behavior, but no concrete financial data or guidance was disclosed. Traders should note the potential headwind implied by the oil reserve drop and monitor CASY’s quarterly earnings for any signs of revenue pressure.

What did this article say?

Casey's General Stores (CASY) reported a sharp earnings jump in Q1 2027, yet the stock fell 16% as investors questioned the sustainability of the results. Management highlighted a temporary lift in fuel margins that may reverse in coming quarters and noted a slowdown in same‑store sales growth from 4% last year to 3.2% this year. The company reiterated its full‑fiscal‑year outlook, but market sentiment remains cautious.

What did this article say?

Evercore ISI Group’s analyst Michael Montani has downgraded Casey’s General Stores (NASDAQ:CASY) to an Outperform rating while cutting the price target from $880 to $775. The move reflects concerns over the retailer’s margin pressure and competitive landscape. The downgrade signals a negative outlook for the stock and may weigh on investor sentiment.

What did this article say?

Casey's General Stores (CASY) has seen a sharp decline in its share price during the week, falling roughly 17% as analysts slash price targets following weaker-than-expected first‑quarter sales and tightening fuel margins. KeyBanc, BMO, and Stephens all reduced their targets, yet most still maintain an overweight stance, citing potential upside if the company can stabilize sales and margins. The sell‑off reflects short‑term concerns about sales momentum, but the consensus view remains constructive on the long‑term business model and growth prospects.

What did this article say?

Casey’s General Stores reported first‑quarter revenue of $5.68 billion, with EBITDA up 17.1% to $485 million and GAAP net income rising 27.1% to $274 million. Same‑store inside sales grew 3.2% while fuel gross profit climbed 19.6% despite a slight decline in gallon sales, indicating stronger fuel margins. Prepared‑food and dispensed‑beverage sales increased 4.8%, further supporting margin expansion. The results suggest that higher margins could offset moderating demand growth, but the upside is limited to current operating dynamics rather than a structural shift.

What did this article say?

Casey’s General Stores (CASY) has delivered a 26.83% annualized return over the past five years, outperforming the broader market by 15.55%. The stock’s performance reflects steady revenue growth and efficient cost management across its 1,000+ stores. Investors should note the company’s expanding same‑store sales and its focus on digital ordering platforms. The positive trend suggests continued upside potential if the retail environment remains favorable.

What did this article say?

Casey's General Stores (CASY) reported Q1 results that fell short of expectations as peak fuel margins receded to the low 40‑cent range per gallon, signaling a tougher environment for fuel profitability. The bank highlighted softness in the Grocery & General Merchandise segment, citing rising vendor prices that strain consumer affordability amid high gasoline costs. An accounting reclassification of distribution costs had previously overstated margins in the Prepared Foods & Dispensed Beverages line, further dampening sentiment. UBS maintained a neutral rating but lowered its price target from $925 to $720, reflecting the cumulative impact of these factors.

What did this article say?

Casey's General Stores, Inc. (CASY) reported Q1 earnings that surpassed estimates, with EPS of $7.37 versus the $6.60 consensus and revenue of $5.68 billion versus $5.65 billion. The company reaffirmed its fiscal 2027 outlook, citing stable same‑store sales growth of 2%‑5% and fuel margins in the low‑40‑cent range. CFO Stephen Bramlage highlighted continued progress on CEFCO conversion and controlled labor costs, indicating that the business remains on track to meet its guidance.

What did this article say?

UBS has reduced its price target for Casey’s General Stores (CASY) from $925 to $720 while maintaining a neutral rating. The cut reflects a reassessment of the retailer’s growth prospects amid competitive pressures and margin concerns. The new target sits below the current market price, suggesting a modest downside view for the stock. Investors should monitor future earnings releases and any updates on store expansion plans for further clarity.

Technical Analysis

Real-time indicators across multiple timeframes

SELL

Technical indicators reflect the latest computed signal mix for this timeframe.

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Institutional & Hedge Fund Ownership

5 tracked managers · $1.28B combined position · 3 adding, 2 trimming, 0 unchanged (latest 13F filings)

Manager	Trend	Shares Held	% of Co.	Position Value	Filed
Geode Capital Management, LLC	▲ Buy	1,084,171	2.83%	$858.61M	2026-08-12
Marshall Wace, LLP	▼ Sell	426,104	1.11%	$338.66M	2026-08-13
Neuberger Berman Group LLC	▲ Buy	63,695	0.17%	$50.62M	2026-08-13
Loomis Sayles & Co L P	▼ Sell	35,860	0.09%	$28.50M	2026-08-14
Ancora Advisors LLC	▲ Buy	814	0.00%	$592.5K	2026-05-15

Q2 2026 flow:250.3K sh bought ($198.26M)20.2K sh sold ($16.07M)net +230.1K sh (+$182.19M)

Congressional Trading Activity

4 disclosed trades · ~$32.0K est. traded value · 3 buys, 1 sells

Member	Chamber	State	Type	Amount	Traded	Filed
Rick Larsen	House	WA02	▲ Buy	$1K - $15K	2026-04-07	2026-04-15
Lisa McClain	House	MI09	▼ Sell	$1K - $15K	2025-10-31	2025-11-21
Lisa McClain	House	MI09	▲ Buy	$1K - $15K	2025-10-30	2025-11-21
Lisa McClain	House	MI09	▲ Buy	$1K - $15K	2025-06-11	2025-08-13

CASY·Caseys General Stores, Inc.

EPS

Revenue

CASY Stock Snapshot

What growth is priced into CASY?

What CASY's own history says about today's numbers

Is money rotating into or out of CASY's sector?

What is the options market pricing for CASY?

Are analysts turning bullish or bearish on CASY?

CASY Competitive Positioning

Held by These ETFs

News Sentiment Analysis

Recent News Coverage

Technical Analysis

Real-time indicators across multiple timeframes

News Sentiment Analysis

Recent News Coverage

Technical Analysis

Real-time indicators across multiple timeframes

Market Status

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Portfolio News

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Earnings Events

Economic News

CASY·Caseys General Stores, Inc.

EPS

Revenue

CASY Stock Snapshot

What growth is priced into CASY?

What CASY's own history says about today's numbers

Is money rotating into or out of CASY's sector?

What is the options market pricing for CASY?

Are analysts turning bullish or bearish on CASY?

CASY Competitive Positioning

Held by These ETFs

News Sentiment Analysis

Recent News Coverage

Technical Analysis

Real-time indicators across multiple timeframes

Discover More

News Sentiment Analysis

Recent News Coverage

Technical Analysis

Real-time indicators across multiple timeframes

Discover More

Market Status

Recently Viewed

Portfolio

Email Alerts

Portfolio News

Economic Events

Earnings Events

Economic News