SPOT·Spotify Technology S.A.

Realized volatility (21d)

39.5% 52nd pct

Below its peak

-31.9%

vs 200-day average

+6.1%

Up days (1y)

49%

Spotify Technology S.A. is currently running 39.5% annualised volatility over the last 21 sessions. Measured against SPOT's own 8 years of daily returns rather than a market-wide average, that is the 52nd percentile — close to its own typical level, against a typical reading of 38.9%. The distinction matters because a number that looks calm for one stock is turbulent for another, and the absolute figure on its own tells you neither.

SPOT is trading -31.9% below its running peak. Across 7 full years on file, its median worst-drawdown-in-a-year was -28.2%, and the deepest was -70.9% in 2022. The current drawdown is already deeper than this stock's typical annual low point, which puts it in the part of its range where past recoveries began — and where past declines also continued.

Price sits +6.1% from its 200-day moving average. Against every other day in its history, that gap ranks at the 49th percentile — close to the gap it normally carries. Over the past year SPOT closed higher on 49% of sessions, and it is currently 5 sessions into a rising streak.

On October specifically: over 8 years of records, SPOT finished the month higher 4 of 8 times, with a median return of -0.9% and an average of +2.8%. Its strongest month historically has been June at +8.6% on average, its weakest September at -6.4%. Seasonality is a weak signal on its own — a decade is a small sample and regimes change — but it is a real distribution rather than a rule of thumb.

Overnight risk is measurable too: SPOT has opened more than 2% away from the prior close in 120 of 2,142 sessions (5.6% of the time), with the largest gaps running +5.7% and -10.2%. For anyone holding through an event, that rate is a better guide to overnight exposure than the intraday range.

Across the last 3 dated reports on file, SPOT moved an average of 1.6% in the session after earnings, closing higher 3 of those 3 times, with a median move of +1.8% and a largest of +2.0%.

All figures computed from 2,143 daily closes between 2018-04-03 and 2026-10-09, split-adjusted, recomputed daily. Percentiles are against SPOT's own 9-year history, not a peer group or index.