UAL·United Airlines Holdings, Inc.

Realized volatility (21d)

35.9% 38th pct

Below its peak

-25.6%

vs 200-day average

-7.0%

Up days (1y)

48%

United Airlines Holdings, Inc. is currently running 35.9% annualised volatility over the last 21 sessions. Measured against UAL's own 8 years of daily returns rather than a market-wide average, that is the 38th percentile — on the quiet side for this stock, against a typical reading of 41.5%. The distinction matters because a number that looks calm for one stock is turbulent for another, and the absolute figure on its own tells you neither.

UAL is trading -25.6% below its running peak. Across 7 full years on file, its median worst-drawdown-in-a-year was -38.0%, and the deepest was -77.9% in 2020. The current pullback is therefore shallower than what this stock gives back in a typical year, which is context worth having before treating it as a dislocation.

Price sits -7.0% from its 200-day moving average. Against every other day in its history, that gap ranks at the 29th percentile — a narrower gap than it typically runs. Over the past year UAL closed higher on 48% of sessions, and it is currently 1 session into a rising streak.

On October specifically: over 9 years of records, UAL finished the month higher 4 of 9 times, with a median return of -2.4% and an average of +3.8%. Its strongest month historically has been November at +9.6% on average, its weakest March at -10.5%. Seasonality is a weak signal on its own — a decade is a small sample and regimes change — but it is a real distribution rather than a rule of thumb.

Overnight risk is measurable too: UAL has opened more than 2% away from the prior close in 98 of 2,035 sessions (4.8% of the time), with the largest gaps running +9.6% and -9.7%. For anyone holding through an event, that rate is a better guide to overnight exposure than the intraday range.

Across the last 3 dated reports on file, UAL moved an average of 2.7% in the session after earnings, closing higher 1 of those 3 times, with a median move of -1.1% and a largest of -6.9%.

All figures computed from 2,036 daily closes between 2018-09-10 and 2026-10-15, split-adjusted, recomputed daily. Percentiles are against UAL's own 8-year history, not a peer group or index.