WMG|Analyst Targets
WMG|Company Info
WMG|Insider Trading
WMG|Fundamentals
WMG|Earnings Snapshot
EPS
| Qtr | Est | Actual | +/− |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q4'26 | $0.37 | - | - |
| Q2'26 | $0.40 | $0.43 | +6.9% |
| Q1'25 | $0.28 | $0.12 | -58.4% |
Revenue
| Qtr | Est | Actual | +/− |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q4'26 | $1.9B | - | - |
| Q2'26 | $1.6B | $1.8B | +14.8% |
| Q1'25 | - | $1.5B | - |
WMG|Monthly Returns
Market Data
WMG Stock Snapshot
- Market cap
- 16.78B
- P/E ratio
- 25.0
- Day range
- $30.95 – $31.92
- News sentiment
- 44/100 · Neutral
- Analyst target
- $38.00 (+20.4%)
- Consensus
- Buy · 25 analysts
WMG is on the weaker side of its setup, with little confirmation for a reversal yet. Institutional coverage is thorough here, so shifts in analyst expectations show up in price quickly.
Reverse DCF
What growth is priced into WMG?
At today's price, Warner Music Group Corp. needs to grow free cash flow about -20.0% a year for 3 years, slowing to a long-run rate by year 10, to justify its valuation at a 6.96% cost of capital. Over the last five years its revenue has trended at 5.7% a year, so the market is asking for 25.7 percentage points below its own delivered rate. On that basis WMG looks priced below what its own growth record supports.
- Implied FCF growth
- -20.0% (capped)
- Growth trend
- 5.7%
- Growth gap
- -25.7 pts
- Verdict
- CHEAP
- Discount rate (WACC)
- 6.96%
- Beta
- 0.70
Behaviour On Record
What WMG's own history says about today's numbers
- Realized volatility (21d)
- 32.6% 49th pct
- Below its peak
- -33.6%
- vs 200-day average
- +15.1%
- Up days (1y)
- 49%
Warner Music Group Corp. is currently running 32.6% annualised volatility over the last 21 sessions. Measured against WMG's own 6 years of daily returns rather than a market-wide average, that is the 49th percentile — close to its own typical level, against a typical reading of 32.8%.
WMG is trading -33.6% below its running peak. Across 6 full years on file, its median worst-drawdown-in-a-year was -28.7%, and the deepest was -48.9% in 2022. The current drawdown is already deeper than this stock's typical annual low point, which puts it in the part of its range where past recoveries began, and where past declines also continued.
Price sits +15.1% from its 200-day moving average. Against every other day in its history, that gap ranks at the 91st percentile — a wider gap than this stock usually carries. Over the past year WMG closed higher on 49% of sessions, and it is currently 4 sessions into a rising streak.
On November specifically: over 6 years of records, WMG finished the month higher 4 of 6 times, with a median return of +3.2% and an average of +4.8%. Its strongest month historically has been December at +7.1% on average, its weakest May at -7.1%.
Overnight risk is measurable too: WMG has opened more than 2% away from the prior close in 123 of 1,615 sessions (7.6% of the time), with the largest gaps running +11.4% and -5.0%.
All figures computed from 1,616 daily closes between 2020-06-03 and 2026-11-05, split-adjusted, recomputed daily. Percentiles are against WMG's own 6-year history, not a peer group or index.
Sector Rotation
Is money rotating into or out of WMG's sector?
Warner Music Group Corp. sits in the Industrials sector, currently ranked 8th of 12 GICS sectors by relative-strength rotation score (weakening).
- Sector rank
- #8 of 12
- Sector state
- Weakening
- Sector rotation score
- 27
Analyst Consensus Estimates
What do analysts expect WMG to earn?
Analysts expect Warner Music Group Corp. to earn $1.78 per share in the fiscal year ending Sep 2026 and $2.03 in the fiscal year ending Sep 2028, from 4 estimates. These are analyst forecasts, not company guidance, and later years rest on fewer analysts.
Revenue marked ~ is our calculation from the EPS estimate, not analyst consensus.
Analyst Rating Changes
Are analysts turning bullish or bearish on WMG?
StoneX most recently initiated coverage on Warner Music Group Corp. to Buy on Oct 15, 2026 with a price target of $41. Over the last 90 days, coverage has run 0 upgrades against 0 downgrades, a net mixed lean.
- Latest action
- StoneX: Buy
- 90-day upgrades
- 0
- 90-day downgrades
- 0
- Net rating momentum
- 0
Earnings Release, Scored
What did Warner Music Group Corp.'s latest earnings release say?
Most important lines
- 1
Net income was $200 million compared to a loss of $16 million in the prior-year quarter
- 2
Operating income increased 80% to $305 million versus $169 million in the prior-year quarter
- 3
Earnings per share was $0.39 compared to $(0.03) in the prior-year quarter
Peers & ETF holders
WMG peers & ETF holders
EntertainmentMarket cap · today
News & sentiment
What is the news saying about WMG?
WMG rose 14.3% over the month to Nov 6. News tone held between 15 and 92 from Oct 6 to Oct 20, then dropped to 52 on Oct 21.
- Oct 8 +2.7%
- Oct 15 +5.9%same day: StoneX Initiates Coverage On Warner Music Gr with Buy Rating, Announces Price Target of $41
- Nov 4 +4.6%
Technical analysis
How strong is WMG's momentum right now?
On the daily chart WMG ranks at the 26th percentile for momentum against 1,060 stocks and ETFs, a bearish reading.
Institutional ownership
Are big funds buying or selling WMG?
52 of the 117 tracked managers added to WMG in their latest 13F and 60 trimmed. Together they own 21.0% of the company, worth $3.0B. Darsana Capital Partners and JPMorgan Chase alone hold 4.4%.
- $323.3M positionAdded 0.8% last quarter
- 2JPMorgan Chase & Co2.11%$297.7M positionTrimmed 18.4% last quarter
- 3BlackRock, Inc.1.92%$276.4M positionAdded 5.7% last quarter
- $241.2M positionTrimmed 3.8% last quarter
- $168.4M positionTrimmed 0.3% last quarter
- $159.3M positionTrimmed 0.1% last quarter
- $157.7M positionTrimmed 0.8% last quarter
- 8Goldman Sachs Group Inc0.94%$134.7M positionAdded 196.2% last quarter
- 9State Street Corp0.51%$73.1M positionAdded 1.4% last quarter
- $68.9M positionAdded 171.3% last quarter
Discover more
How has WMG done against its peers?
Over the six months to Nov 6, WMG returned +2.6%. Of the 15 related stocks and ETFs, 6 did better, led by SPOT at +42.9%.
- 1SPOTSpotify Technology S.A.up 42.9%+40.3 pts
- 2FWONALiberty Media Corporation - Series A Liberty Formula Oneup 24.3%+21.7 pts
- 3RBLXRoblox Corporationup 11.4%+8.8 pts
- 4DISThe Walt Disney Companyup 9.3%+6.6 pts
- 5FOXFox Corporationup 7.3%+4.6 pts
- 6LYVLive Nation Entertainment, Inc.up 5.2%+2.6 pts
- 7WMGThis stockup 2.6%
- 8TKOTKO Group Holdings, Inc.up 0.4%−2.2 pts
- 16NFLXNetflix, Inc.down 27.6%−30.2 pts