DailyIQ
DailyIQ
Last updated1 minute ago

WMG·Warner Music Group Corp.

$31.56
-0.36 (-1.13%)
High
$31.92
Open
$31.00
Market Cap
16.78B
52W High
$35.42
Low
$30.95
P. Close
$31.56
P/E
24.98
52W Low
$23.34
Fwd P/E
16.00
DailyIQ Est.
$39.55
Inst. Own.
21.0%
Short Interest
1.91%
Days to Cover
4.3
Div. Yield
2.41%
Next Ex-Div
~Nov 19
NewEarnings release, scored · filed Aug 5, 2026Guidance reaffirmed · 85 lines scoredSee the breakdown
Technical Score (1D)
26
BEARISH
News Sentiment
44
BEARISH
WMG scores 26 on the 1D chart, with a SELL signal and declining momentum driving the bearish price trend. The setup is persistently weak. Sentiment at 44 is aligned with the technical picture, reinforcing the view that both the price action and the news backdrop are pointing the same direction. That kind of confirmed alignment tends to make rallies short-lived and selling pressure more persistent. Traders positioned to the downside are watching $29.09 as the next meaningful reference - a break below that level would likely extend the current leg. Any recovery toward $32.19 should be evaluated carefully before treating it as a reversal rather than a continuation of the downtrend. Short sellers watching WMG are less concerned with catching the exact bottom than with managing risk against $32.19 - a level that, if reclaimed, would force a reassessment of the whole thesis. Until then, the alignment between declining momentum and aligned with sentiment gives the downside case more conviction than a purely technical or purely news-driven read would on its own.
LOW TARGET
$30 -4.9%
2 analysts
MEAN TARGET
$38 +20.4%
11 analysts
HIGH TARGET
$46 +45.8%
12 analysts
PRICE RANGE
$30.00 - $46.00
SB / B / H / S / SS
7/11/5/1/1
DAILYIQ EST.
$39.55 (+25.3%)
Sector
Communication Services
Industry
Entertainment
Exchange
NMS
Country
United States
Website
Symbol
WMG
Description
Warner Music Group Corp. is a global music entertainment company with a core focus on the creation, promotion, and distribution of recorded music and the management of music publishing rights. The company's value proposition centers on nurturing recording artists and songwriters, providing them with the resources to develop and market their music across a wide range of genres, from pop to classical. WMG's competitive advantage lies in its extensive catalog of approximately two million musical compositions and its diverse portfolio of record labels, including established names like Warner Records and Parlophone. This robust infrastructure allows the company to reach consumers through multiple channels, including physical retailers, digital platforms, and streaming services, ensuring broad market penetration. Founded in 1929 and headquartered in New York, WMG continues to leverage its legacy and diverse offerings to capitalize on the evolving music landscape.
Bought (1Y)
0 shares
$0
Sold (1Y)
27,064 shares
$909K
Lynton Michael-
Award/Grant122 shares2026-09-01
Dopfner Mathias-
Award/Grant45 shares2026-09-01
Kurzman Cecelia-
Award/Grant84 shares2026-09-01
Dubuc Nancy-
Award/Grant45 shares2026-09-01
Hertz Noreena-
Award/Grant45 shares2026-09-01
62/ 100
Neutral / mixed
Overall: Neutral
✓Revenue growing year over year
✓Positive net margin
✓Positive operating cash flow
Net Margin
5.4%
Revenue CAGR
5.9%
Current Ratio
0.66x
Debt / Equity
6.30x
Return on Equity
56.4%
Earnings Summary
In Q1 2025, the company reported earnings per share of $0.1185 against an estimate of $0.28483, while revenue reached $1.484 billion, a modest increase from prior periods. The following quarter, Q2 2026, saw EPS rise to $0.4314, surpassing the $0.40358 estimate, and revenue climbed to $1.84 billion, exceeding the $1.603 billion forecast, indicating a clear acceleration in both profitability and top‑line growth. Historically, WMG has posted a steady YoY revenue expansion, with recent quarters reflecting a pattern of beating revenue estimates while occasionally missing EPS guidance, suggesting margin pressures amid rising costs. The company’s recent news highlights resilient streaming demand and a strengthened publishing segment, underscored by a new global administration agreement with My Chemical Romance that is expected to boost publishing revenue and sync licensing opportunities. These developments reinforce the narrative that core operations are gaining traction, supporting a year‑over‑year earnings increase aligned with WMG’s long‑term strategy.

EPS

EstBeatMiss
$0.07$0.17$0.27$0.38$0.48Q1'25Q2'26Q4'26
QtrEstActual+/−
Q4'26$0.37 - -
Q2'26$0.40$0.43+6.9%
Q1'25$0.28$0.12-58.4%

Revenue

EstBeatMiss
$1.4B$1.6B$1.7B$1.8B$2.0BQ1'25Q2'26Q4'26
QtrEstActual+/−
Q4'26$1.9B - -
Q2'26$1.6B$1.8B+14.8%
Q1'25 - $1.5B -

Market Data

WMG Stock Snapshot

BEARISH26/100
$31.56−$0.36 (1.1%)
Market cap
16.78B
P/E ratio
25.0
Day range
$30.95 – $31.92
News sentiment
44/100 · Neutral
Analyst target
$38.00 (+20.4%)
Consensus
Buy · 25 analysts
52-week range+35.2% off low · -10.9% from high
$23.34$35.42
Price $31.56 DailyIQ Est. $39.55

WMG is on the weaker side of its setup, with little confirmation for a reversal yet. Institutional coverage is thorough here, so shifts in analyst expectations show up in price quickly.

Reverse DCF

What growth is priced into WMG?

CHEAP

At today's price, Warner Music Group Corp. needs to grow free cash flow about -20.0% a year for 3 years, slowing to a long-run rate by year 10, to justify its valuation at a 6.96% cost of capital. Over the last five years its revenue has trended at 5.7% a year, so the market is asking for 25.7 percentage points below its own delivered rate. On that basis WMG looks priced below what its own growth record supports.

Implied FCF growth
-20.0% (capped)
Growth trend
5.7%
Growth gap
-25.7 pts
Verdict
CHEAP
Discount rate (WACC)
6.96%
Beta
0.70

Behaviour On Record

What WMG's own history says about today's numbers

Realized volatility (21d)
32.6% 49th pct
Below its peak
-33.6%
vs 200-day average
+15.1%
Up days (1y)
49%

Warner Music Group Corp. is currently running 32.6% annualised volatility over the last 21 sessions. Measured against WMG's own 6 years of daily returns rather than a market-wide average, that is the 49th percentile — close to its own typical level, against a typical reading of 32.8%.

WMG is trading -33.6% below its running peak. Across 6 full years on file, its median worst-drawdown-in-a-year was -28.7%, and the deepest was -48.9% in 2022. The current drawdown is already deeper than this stock's typical annual low point, which puts it in the part of its range where past recoveries began, and where past declines also continued.

Price sits +15.1% from its 200-day moving average. Against every other day in its history, that gap ranks at the 91st percentile — a wider gap than this stock usually carries. Over the past year WMG closed higher on 49% of sessions, and it is currently 4 sessions into a rising streak.

On November specifically: over 6 years of records, WMG finished the month higher 4 of 6 times, with a median return of +3.2% and an average of +4.8%. Its strongest month historically has been December at +7.1% on average, its weakest May at -7.1%.

Overnight risk is measurable too: WMG has opened more than 2% away from the prior close in 123 of 1,615 sessions (7.6% of the time), with the largest gaps running +11.4% and -5.0%.

All figures computed from 1,616 daily closes between 2020-06-03 and 2026-11-05, split-adjusted, recomputed daily. Percentiles are against WMG's own 6-year history, not a peer group or index.

Sector Rotation

Is money rotating into or out of WMG's sector?

Warner Music Group Corp. sits in the Industrials sector, currently ranked 8th of 12 GICS sectors by relative-strength rotation score (weakening).

Sector rank
#8 of 12
Sector state
Weakening
Sector rotation score
27

Options Market

What is the options market pricing for WMG?

CallsPuts

For Warner Music Group Corp.'s nearest expiry (2026-11-20, 14 days out), open interest is call-heavy, a bullish tilt (put/call ratio of 0.08), with at-the-money implied volatility around 52.6%. The options market is pricing roughly a ±10.7% move by that expiry — a range of about $28.12–$34.88.

Put/call ratio (2026-11-20)
0.08
ATM implied volatility
52.6%
Total open interest
5,844
Expected move by 2026-11-20
±10.7% ($28.12–$34.88)

Analyst Consensus Estimates

What do analysts expect WMG to earn?

Analysts expect Warner Music Group Corp. to earn $1.78 per share in the fiscal year ending Sep 2026 and $2.03 in the fiscal year ending Sep 2028, from 4 estimates. These are analyst forecasts, not company guidance, and later years rest on fewer analysts.

Quarter endingEPS estimateEPS rangeEPS analystsRevenue estimateRevenue analysts
Sep 2026$0.42$0.36 to $0.474$1.90B15
Dec 2026$0.51$0.47 to $0.583$1.96B7
Mar 2027$0.38$0.36 to $0.402~$1.67B-
Jun 2027$0.47$0.44 to $0.502~$2.07B-
Fiscal year endingEPS estimateEPS rangeEPS analystsRevenue estimateRevenue analysts
Sep 2026$1.78$1.43 to $1.966$7.34B16
Sep 2027$1.97$1.72 to $2.196$7.79B15
Sep 2028$2.03$1.90 to $2.114~$8.94B-

Revenue marked ~ is our calculation from the EPS estimate, not analyst consensus.

Analyst Rating Changes

Are analysts turning bullish or bearish on WMG?

StoneX most recently initiated coverage on Warner Music Group Corp. to Buy on Oct 15, 2026 with a price target of $41. Over the last 90 days, coverage has run 0 upgrades against 0 downgrades, a net mixed lean.

Latest action
StoneX: Buy
90-day upgrades
0
90-day downgrades
0
Net rating momentum
0
DateFirmActionRatingPrice target
Oct 15, 2026StoneXInitiatedBuy$41
Oct 1, 2026UBSMaintainedBuy$42 → $43
Sep 29, 2026GuggenheimReiteratedBuy$36
May 8, 2026UBSMaintainedBuy$40 → $42
May 8, 2026JP MorganMaintainedOverweight$40 → $43
May 8, 2026Evercore ISI GroupMaintainedOutperform$37 → $43
May 8, 2026GuggenheimMaintainedBuy$34 → $36
Apr 21, 2026Morgan StanleyMaintainedOverweight$37 → $38
Mar 31, 2026GuggenheimMaintainedBuy$37 → $34
Feb 13, 2026ScotiabankUpgradeSector Perform → Sector Outperform$66 → $84
Jan 21, 2026CitigroupMaintainedBuy$41 → $40
Dec 18, 2025Morgan StanleyUpgradeEqual-Weight → Overweight$37

Earnings Release, Scored

What did Warner Music Group Corp.'s latest earnings release say?

Filed Aug 5, 2026 · SEC Form 8-K, Exhibit 99

Guidance reaffirmed
Tone85.4/ 100
Hedging words0.15per 100 words

Most important lines

  1. 1

    Net income was $200 million compared to a loss of $16 million in the prior-year quarter

  2. 2

    Operating income increased 80% to $305 million versus $169 million in the prior-year quarter

  3. 3

    Earnings per share was $0.39 compared to $(0.03) in the prior-year quarter

Peers & ETF holders

WMG peers & ETF holders

News & sentiment

What is the news saying about WMG?

WMG rose 14.3% over the month to Nov 6. News tone held between 15 and 92 from Oct 6 to Oct 20, then dropped to 52 on Oct 21.

Daily close and news tone, Oct 6 to Nov 6
$28$30$33Oct 6: tone 15Oct 7Oct 8Oct 9Oct 12Oct 13Oct 14Oct 15: tone 69Oct 16: tone 57Oct 19Oct 20: tone 92Oct 21: tone 52Oct 22Oct 23Oct 26Oct 27Oct 28Oct 29Oct 30Nov 2Nov 3: tone 42Nov 4Nov 5: tone 42Nov 6Oct 6News toneNov 6123
  1. Oct 8 +2.7%
  2. Oct 15 +5.9%same day: StoneX Initiates Coverage On Warner Music Gr with Buy Rating, Announces Price Target of $41
  3. Nov 4 +4.6%

Technical analysis

How strong is WMG's momentum right now?

On the daily chart WMG ranks at the 26th percentile for momentum against 1,060 stocks and ETFs, a bearish reading.

Momentum rank by timeframe0 = weakest, 100 = strongest
See what drives the rankThe inputs behind each timeframe's momentum rank, plus RSI, stochastics, Bollinger Bands and moving averages. Free with an account.

Institutional ownership

Are big funds buying or selling WMG?

52 of the 117 tracked managers added to WMG in their latest 13F and 60 trimmed. Together they own 21.0% of the company, worth $3.0B. Darsana Capital Partners and JPMorgan Chase alone hold 4.4%.

52adding60trimming5unchanged
Largest holders by stake, latest 13FBar = share of WMG
  1. $323.3M positionAdded 0.8% last quarter
  2. $297.7M positionTrimmed 18.4% last quarter
  3. $276.4M positionAdded 5.7% last quarter
  4. $241.2M positionTrimmed 3.8% last quarter
  5. $168.4M positionTrimmed 0.3% last quarter
  6. $159.3M positionTrimmed 0.1% last quarter
  7. $157.7M positionTrimmed 0.8% last quarter
  8. $134.7M positionAdded 196.2% last quarter
  9. $73.1M positionAdded 1.4% last quarter
  10. $68.9M positionAdded 171.3% last quarter
Full holdings history

Discover more

How has WMG done against its peers?

Over the six months to Nov 6, WMG returned +2.6%. Of the 15 related stocks and ETFs, 6 did better, led by SPOT at +42.9%.

Change since May 6, through Nov 6
−50%−25%0%+25%+50%May 6JunJulAugSepOctNov 6SPOT +42.9%WMG +2.6%NFLX −27.6%