AUR·Aurora Innovation Inc. Class A

Realized volatility (21d)

54.5% 18th pct

Below its peak

-65.2%

vs 200-day average

-3.8%

Up days (1y)

50%

Aurora Innovation Inc. Class A is currently running 54.5% annualised volatility over the last 21 sessions. Measured against AUR's own 5 years of daily returns rather than a market-wide average, that is the 18th percentile — unusually subdued by its own history, against a typical reading of 75.0%. The distinction matters because a number that looks calm for one stock is turbulent for another, and the absolute figure on its own tells you neither.

AUR is trading -65.2% below its running peak. Across 4 full years on file, its median worst-drawdown-in-a-year was -58.8%, and the deepest was -90.2% in 2022. The current drawdown is already deeper than this stock's typical annual low point, which puts it in the part of its range where past recoveries began — and where past declines also continued.

Price sits -3.8% from its 200-day moving average. Against every other day in its history, that gap ranks at the 52nd percentile — close to the gap it normally carries. Over the past year AUR closed higher on 50% of sessions, and it is currently 1 session into a rising streak.

On October specifically: over 6 years of records, AUR finished the month higher 1 of 6 times, with a median return of -4.0% and an average of -6.4%. Its strongest month historically has been July at +13.9% on average, its weakest October at -6.4%. Seasonality is a weak signal on its own — a decade is a small sample and regimes change — but it is a real distribution rather than a rule of thumb.

Overnight risk is measurable too: AUR has opened more than 2% away from the prior close in 332 of 1,363 sessions (24.4% of the time), with the largest gaps running +24.7% and -13.6%. For anyone holding through an event, that rate is a better guide to overnight exposure than the intraday range.

All figures computed from 1,364 daily closes between 2021-05-10 and 2026-10-14, split-adjusted, recomputed daily. Percentiles are against AUR's own 5-year history, not a peer group or index.