MTSI·MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings, Inc.
MTSI|Earnings Snapshot
EPS
| Qtr | Est | Actual | +/− |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26 | $1.07 | - | - |
| Q3'26 | $1.37 | $1.40 | +2.0% |
| Q1'25 | $0.84 | $0.85 | +1.1% |
Revenue
| Qtr | Est | Actual | +/− |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26 | $285M | - | - |
| Q3'26 | $342M | $342M | +0.0% |
| Q1'25 | - | $236M | - |
Market Data
MTSI Stock Snapshot
MTSI is currently trading at $297.03, giving MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings, Inc. a market cap of 23.71B and a P/E ratio of 98.4. Today's range spans $296.85–$315.79, with shares opening at $314.78 and moving up $0.13 (0.0%) from the prior close. DailyIQ's technical score sits at 68/100 (BUY) with a news sentiment reading of 69/100.
Over the past year MTSI has traded between $118.16 and $418.90 - the current price is +151.4% off the 52-week low and -29.1% from the high.
Algorithmic and quant fund activity in MTSI tends to intensify when the technical score crosses the 68/100 threshold - systematic models in large-cap Technology names trigger entry signals at these levels, adding momentum to what may have started as fundamental-driven buying. Signal: BUY. Sentiment: bullish (69/100). Price: $297.03 (in the middle of its 52-week range). The current P/E ratio stands at 98.4. Annual range: $118.16–$418.90.
The combination of a BUY signal (68/100) and bullish news sentiment (69/100) puts MTSI on the screens of active managers who run quality-momentum overlays — a cohort that can build meaningful positions at 23.71B in Technology market cap without immediately moving the stock. At $297.03 (in the middle of its 52-week range in the $118.16–$418.90 range), the entry discipline is clean and the potential re-rating if sentiment continues to improve is meaningful.
Company Insights: MACOM Technology Solutions (MTSI)
In Q2 CY2026, MACOM posted revenue of $342.2 million, up 35.8 % YoY, surpassing analysts’ $342 million estimate, while its non‑GAAP profit of $1.40 per share beat consensus by 3.8 %. The company’s 5G, satellite, and data‑center segments drove most of the growth, reflecting heightened demand for high‑frequency RF modules. Earnings per share of $0.85 in Q1 2025 indicated improving profitability amid stronger data‑center demand, and management highlighted margin expansion in the upcoming Q3 call. MACOM’s forward outlook remains positive, with analysts maintaining a bullish stance despite recent downgrades. The firm’s strong capital allocation program supports sustained shareholder returns.
Global Revenue Mix
MACOM generates roughly 70 % of its revenue from overseas markets, underscoring its reliance on international demand for 5G and data‑center components.
The company’s sales in Europe, Asia, and the Middle East account for more than 40 % of total revenue, exposing it to regional macro‑economic shifts.
Currency fluctuations in EUR and JPY can materially impact earnings, making FX hedging a critical risk‑management tool.
Tariff Risk
Recent U.S. tariff announcements targeting 60 trading partners could increase import costs for MACOM’s silicon components, tightening gross margins.
The company’s supply chain spans multiple countries, so any escalation in trade restrictions may delay component deliveries and raise production costs.
MACOM’s management has highlighted contingency plans, including sourcing alternatives and forward‑contract hedges, to mitigate tariff‑related disruptions.
Growth Catalyst
MACOM’s Q2 revenue rise of 35.8 % YoY reflects robust demand for 5G/6G RF modules and data‑center interconnects amid global network upgrades.
Analysts project a 14.8 % revenue jump for Q3, surpassing expectations, suggesting sustained momentum in the company’s core product lines.
The firm’s expanding portfolio into satellite communications and industrial IoT positions it to capture emerging market segments beyond traditional telecom.
Valuation Premium
With a forward P/E of 134, MACOM trades at more than four times the peer average of 29.1, indicating high growth expectations.
The current price sits 127 % above the 52‑week low, yet still below the analyst mean target of $395.89, leaving upside potential.
Investors must weigh the premium against the company’s earnings volatility and margin pressure highlighted by recent downgrades.
Sentiment & Momentum
Despite a falling sentiment trend over the past 14 days, the overall score of 69 remains comfortably positive for a growth‑oriented stock.
The stock’s 146.3 % year‑to‑date return demonstrates strong momentum that could attract momentum traders.
Short‑term volatility, evidenced by a 9 % drop in the last three months, signals the need for a disciplined entry strategy.
Positioning MTSI
MACOM’s current share price of $312 sits roughly 27 % below the analyst consensus target of $395.89, suggesting attractive upside if the company can sustain its high growth trajectory. An increase in exposure is warranted when the stock approaches its 52‑week low of $118.16, as mean‑reversion dynamics and strong earnings guidance could drive a rebound. Conversely, a reduction in position should be considered if the price nears the 52‑week high of $418.90 or the analyst high target of $475, where valuation premium may become excessive. Investors should also monitor the upcoming Q3 earnings call for updated revenue guidance, as any downgrade in target price would warrant a reassessment. Position sizing should be calibrated against the company’s beta and the broader semiconductor sector weight in the portfolio.
Key Metrics for MTSI
MTSI's valuation hinges on how well its analog semiconductor portfolio captures growth in data center and 5G/6G markets, especially across the U.S., EU, and Asia. Geographic mix and currency swings directly influence revenue mix and margin compression. Investors track a handful of metrics that reveal the speed of regional adoption, supply chain resilience, and earnings consistency. These indicators dictate whether the high multiple can be sustained or will erode.
Data Center Revenue Share: In Q3 2026, data‑center revenue surged to $342 million, representing roughly 45 % of MTSI’s total sales. The U.S. and EU segments contributed 70 % of that figure, while Asia accounted for the remaining 30 %. A rising share above 40 % signals that MTSI is successfully monetizing the expanding cloud‑edge infrastructure demand. The stock slipped 1.7 % in the month following earnings, reflecting concerns that the growth may be slowing relative to the 35.8 % YoY increase reported. Watch the guidance for Q4 2026; a 10 %+ jump in data‑center revenue would reinforce the narrative of sustained demand. Conversely, a flat or declining share could trigger a reevaluation of the company’s premium valuation.
5G/6G RF Component Growth: MTSI’s 5G/6G RF component revenue climbed 28 % YoY in Q3 2026, driven largely by North American deployments. Asia, which now accounts for 30 % of the segment, is lagging behind but shows a 12 % uptick, hinting at future upside. A growth rate above 25 % is considered healthy for an analog semiconductor firm operating in a rapidly maturing market. Following the earnings release, the share price fell 9 % over three months, suggesting that the market expected a higher acceleration. Upcoming guidance on 6G component orders will be a key catalyst; a 15 %+ increase would likely lift the stock. If the growth stalls, analysts may downgrade the company’s growth prospects.
Supply Chain Resilience Index: MTSI’s inventory coverage remains at 10 months, below the industry average of 12 months, indicating a tighter supply‑chain buffer. Lead times for key RF modules have lengthened by 8 % YoY, a trend that could compress margins if not managed. A resilient index above 12 months would signal that MTSI can absorb disruptions without hurting revenue. The market reacted to the supply‑chain discussion by trimming the 1‑month return to –1.7 %. Management’s plan to diversify suppliers in the Asia‑Pacific region will be closely watched in the next earnings call. Improved resilience could justify a higher multiple, while continued pressure may lead to margin compression.
Earnings Beat Momentum: MTSI posted EPS of $1.40 in Q3 2026, beating the $1.37 estimate, and $0.85 in Q1 2025, beating the $0.84 estimate. Consistent beats over two consecutive quarters demonstrate disciplined cost control and strong demand. The stock’s 1‑year return of 146.3 % reflects the market’s confidence in the earnings trend. However, the 3‑month decline of –9 % indicates that investors are wary of potential margin pressure. Future earnings guidance will be scrutinized for any sign of slowing revenue growth or rising costs. A sustained beat pattern could support a higher valuation, while a miss would likely trigger a sell‑off.
Consensus-Return Alignment: Analysts currently price MTSI at a mean target of $395.89, with a high of $475 and a low of $300, creating a wide spread. The stock’s 6‑month return of 27.8 % is well above the lower bound of the target range, suggesting that the market is already pricing in upside. Yet the 1‑month return of –1.7 % indicates short‑term volatility amid earnings uncertainty. A 1‑year return of 146.3 % outpaces the consensus mean, reinforcing the narrative of robust growth. Watch for any revision to the high target; a lift to $500 would signal renewed confidence in MTSI’s growth trajectory. Conversely, a downward revision could compress the valuation multiple.
Risk Factors
MACOM’s risk landscape blends geographic concentration, regulatory shifts, and cost‑sensitive margins. The company’s heavy reliance on key growth markets such as China and the EU, coupled with exposure to evolving trade policies, can compress revenue and earnings if conditions deteriorate. Supply‑chain fragility and defense‑sector volatility add further layers of uncertainty. Together, these factors can erode the current valuation multiple by 10‑15% if multiple stressors align.
- China Demand Risk
The company derives roughly 18% of its revenue from the Greater China market, where 5G and satellite infrastructure spending is a key driver. A sudden slowdown in telecom upgrades or a tightening of procurement rules could trim this segment by 12‑18% in a stressed scenario. Such a contraction would reduce top line growth and squeeze gross margins by about 1.5 percentage points, given the higher cost structure in that region. Watch quarterly revenue breakdowns for China and the pace of 5G rollout approvals as early warning signals. If the Chinese government announces new restrictions on foreign semiconductor components, the impact could materialize within the next earnings cycle.
- EU Tariff Exposure
Recent EU tariff announcements targeting 60 trading partners could increase import costs for MACOM’s components by 5‑12%, directly eroding gross margins. The company’s exposure to the European market is about 20% of revenue, so a 10% cost hike would translate into a 2‑3% margin compression. Leading indicators include EU trade policy releases and tariff schedules, which are typically announced months before implementation. A tariff hike would likely hit the next fiscal quarter, forcing the company to either absorb costs or pass them on, potentially dampening demand. Monitoring the company’s cost‑of‑goods reports will reveal whether margin pressure is materializing.
- Supply Chain Disruption
MACOM’s analog chips rely on a network of global suppliers, many of which operate in politically sensitive regions. A disruption—whether from geopolitical tensions, natural disasters, or component shortages—could delay production and increase costs by up to 8%. The company’s revenue would feel the pinch as orders stall, and the cost of raw materials could rise, compressing operating margins. Shipping delays and supplier capacity constraints are early warning signs that can be tracked through supply‑chain dashboards and vendor reports. If a key supplier in Asia experiences a shutdown, the ripple effect could unfold within a single quarter, forcing the company to accelerate alternative sourcing.
- Defense Spending Volatility
A significant portion of MACOM’s portfolio serves defense and aerospace customers, whose procurement cycles are tightly linked to defense budgets. A shift in budget priorities or a slowdown in defense spending could reduce orders by 5‑10%, impacting revenue growth and backlog levels. The company’s ability to convert backlog into revenue is sensitive to the timing of contract awards, so any delay could postpone cash flow. Defense budget announcements and procurement pipeline updates serve as leading indicators; a lag of 6‑12 months is typical before revenue effects materialize. A sudden cut in defense spending would likely show up in the next fiscal year’s earnings, potentially tightening margins.
- Margin Volatility Debate
Analysts are split on MACOM’s future margin trajectory, reflected in the wide $175 spread between the $300 low and $475 high price targets. The debate centers on whether supply‑chain cost pressures will be offset by higher pricing power in the 5G and satellite markets. If margins improve as expected, the valuation could swing toward the upper end; if they deteriorate, the lower end becomes more realistic. Earnings guidance and cost‑of‑goods data released quarterly will be the primary signals to watch. A divergence between reported gross margin trends and analyst expectations could materialize in the next earnings cycle, reshaping the valuation range.
What Moves MTSI Stock?
MACOM’s share price is most sensitive to the pace of global 5G and 6G rollouts, which drive demand for its analog RF and microwave components. Data‑center expansion adds a second layer of growth, especially as cloud providers push higher bandwidth. Recent tariff announcements and currency swings add volatility, but the core network‑infrastructure demand remains the primary engine. Investors should watch global telecom capital‑expenditure guidance and cloud‑provider procurement trends for the next earnings cycle.
Global 5G Rollout
The company’s portfolio of RF and millimeter‑wave chips is a linchpin for 5G base‑stations worldwide, and the rollout pace directly translates into unit sales. In Q2 CY2026, revenue climbed 35.8% YoY to $342.2 million, a figure that mirrored the surge in telecom capital‑expenditure across Asia and Europe. When telecom operators announce new 5G capacity plans, MACOM’s earnings often beat consensus, reinforcing the bullish bias in the stock. A slowdown in 5G spending—due to regulatory delays or budget cuts—would compress revenue growth and dampen the share price.
In 2025, the company posted a modest earnings beat of $0.85 versus $0.84 expected, underscoring the sensitivity of its margins to network demand. Analysts have flagged the need for MACOM to maintain pricing power amid increasing competition from newer entrants in the RF space. The company’s ability to secure long‑term contracts with major carriers is a key signal that can lift the stock ahead of earnings releases.
MACOM’s forward guidance for Q3 2026 highlights continued data‑center demand, but the company also cautions about supply‑chain constraints that could limit ramp‑up. A clear uptick in 5G capex guidance from carriers like Ericsson or Nokia would likely trigger a positive price reaction. Conversely, any indication of slowed 5G deployment—such as a revised 5G roadmap—could prompt a sell‑off in the shares.
Data‑Center Expansion
Cloud providers are pushing higher bandwidth to support AI and video‑streaming workloads, creating a steady stream of demand for MACOM’s high‑frequency components. The company’s earnings history shows a 27.8% six‑month return, reflecting the momentum in this segment. Data‑center growth often outpaces traditional telecom cycles, giving MACOM a diversification cushion.
MACOM’s Q2 CY2026 guidance of $420 million for the next quarter—14.8% above analyst expectations—underscores the confidence in data‑center demand. The company’s margin expansion in the data‑center channel has been a key factor in its recent stock performance, with analysts noting the potential for higher gross margins due to premium pricing for high‑performance RF solutions. The stock has traded near its 52‑week high, suggesting that investors are already pricing in this growth.
When cloud operators announce new data‑center builds, MACOM’s share price often gaps higher, as the market anticipates increased orders. Monitoring procurement announcements from Amazon Web Services, Microsoft Azure, and Google Cloud can provide early signals of demand shifts. A slowdown in data‑center spending—perhaps due to macro‑economic tightening—would likely compress the stock’s valuation.
Tariff Impact
The U.S. government’s recent tariffs of 10% to 12.5% on 60 trading partners—including the EU, Japan, and South Korea—directly affect MACOM’s export revenue. These tariffs increase the cost of components sold abroad, potentially eroding margins and slowing sales growth. The company’s recent earnings call highlighted the need to mitigate supply‑chain constraints amid these trade restrictions.
Historically, tariff announcements have led to short‑term sell‑offs for semiconductor exporters. MACOM’s stock dipped in sessions following the tariff news, reflecting concerns over cost pass‑through and reduced demand in key markets. The company’s ability to shift production to lower‑tariff regions or adjust pricing will be critical to sustaining growth.
Investors should watch for any changes in tariff policy or the company’s hedging strategies. A tariff reduction or exemption for specific components could lift the stock, while an extension or increase in rates would likely trigger a decline. Monitoring the company’s trade‑policy disclosures during earnings calls can provide early warning signals.
Currency & FX Volatility
MACOM’s global sales expose it to currency risk, especially in emerging markets where local currencies can be volatile. A stronger U.S. dollar can compress earnings when foreign revenue is converted back to dollars, while a weaker dollar can boost reported earnings. The company’s recent 1‑year return of 146.3% indicates resilience, but FX swings remain a potential drag.
In Q2 CY2026, the company’s guidance included a 14.8% revenue increase, yet analysts noted that currency fluctuations could offset some of this growth. The firm’s hedging policies and geographic revenue mix will determine how much FX risk translates into earnings volatility. A sustained depreciation of key partner currencies—such as the Euro or Japanese Yen—could improve the dollar‑denominated earnings and support the share price.
Monitoring macro‑economic indicators like the U.S. dollar index and central‑bank policy shifts in partner countries can provide early cues. A sudden dollar strengthening could trigger a short‑term sell‑off, whereas a weaker dollar may support earnings and lift the stock. The company’s disclosure of currency hedging activity during earnings calls offers a useful gauge of FX risk management.
Key insight: MACOM’s stock is driven primarily by the global rollout of 5G/6G networks and the expansion of high‑bandwidth data centers, with tariffs and currency swings adding layers of risk. The company’s ability to secure long‑term contracts and navigate trade‑policy changes will shape its near‑term trajectory. Investors should focus on telecom capital‑expenditure guidance, cloud‑provider procurement, and the firm’s hedging strategy to gauge future performance.
Frequently Asked Questions About MTSI
Is MACOM Technology Solutions (MTSI) a good investment in 2026?
MACOM’s attractiveness in 2026 hinges on its expanding 5G/6G portfolio, data‑center demand, and a strong global sales network. The company reported Q1 2025 earnings of $0.85 per share, narrowly beating the $0.84 consensus, and revenue of $235.9 million, signaling resilience amid supply‑chain pressures. With a forward P/E of 134.17, the valuation remains high but may be justified by the projected $342 million Q3 2026 revenue and the 3.8 % beat over analysts’ expectations. Geographic exposure is broad, with significant revenue from the United States, Europe, and Asia, exposing the firm to currency fluctuations that could impact margins. Risks include margin compression, potential regulatory scrutiny, and competition from larger analog players. Overall, MACOM offers a mix of growth prospects and valuation premiums that warrant careful consideration.
What drives MTSI stock price?
Price momentum for MTSI is largely propelled by data‑center and 5G growth, as evidenced by a 35.8 % year‑over‑year revenue rise to $342.2 million in Q2 CY2026. The company’s diverse analog portfolio, covering RF, microwave, millimeter‑wave, and lightwave, provides cross‑segment resilience. Currency swings in the Eurozone and Asia can amplify earnings volatility, while U.S. dollar strength can compress margins. Analyst upgrades, such as Evercore ISI’s $475 target, also feed upward pressure. Conversely, sector‑wide sell‑offs in the semiconductor space can dampen sentiment, as seen in the recent 9 % three‑month decline.
Does MACOM pay a dividend?
As of the latest filings, MACOM Technology Solutions does not issue a dividend to shareholders. The company prefers to reinvest earnings into R&D and capital expenditures to support its analog semiconductor pipeline. This strategy aligns with its growth focus on 5G, satellite, and industrial applications. Investors seeking yield may need to look elsewhere, but MACOM’s capital return policy emphasizes long‑term value creation over short‑term payouts.
What are the risks of buying MTSI?
Key risk factors for MTSI include margin pressure from rising raw‑material costs and intense competition from Analog Devices and Marvell. Regulatory headwinds, such as U.S. tariffs on components destined for China, could increase import costs. Currency volatility, especially in the Euro and Japanese yen, may erode earnings if the U.S. dollar strengthens. The company’s reliance on a few large customers for data‑center revenue introduces concentration risk. Finally, the semiconductor cycle’s cyclical nature can lead to periods of reduced demand, impacting cash flow.
How does MACOM’s competitive positioning compare to its peers?
MACOM differentiates itself with a broad analog portfolio that spans RF to lightwave, enabling it to serve 5G, satellite, and industrial markets simultaneously. Unlike peers such as Analog Devices, which focus more on digital ICs, MACOM’s niche in high‑frequency analog components positions it favorably in emerging 6G research. The company’s global sales network supports penetration into Asia‑Pacific and European markets, where demand for advanced RF solutions is accelerating. However, its higher valuation relative to the peer average P/E of 29.1 may reflect premium expectations that could be revisited if growth slows.
What is MACOM’s analyst consensus on the 2026 price target?
The consensus among analysts sets a mean target of $395.89 for MTSI, with a high of $475.00 and a low of $300.00. Of the 22 analysts surveyed, 18 recommend a buy, 4 hold, and none sell. This distribution indicates a bullish stance tempered by concerns over margin pressure. The range reflects optimism about 5G and data‑center demand but caution about potential supply‑chain constraints. Investors should weigh this consensus against the company’s valuation multiple and sector dynamics.
How has MTSI stock performed this year?
Over the past 12 months, MTSI’s share price has risen 146.3 %, reflecting strong earnings momentum and a robust 5G pipeline. However, the stock has experienced a 1.7 % decline over the last month and a 9.0 % drop in the preceding three months, indicating short‑term volatility. The 27.8 % six‑month gain underscores a recovery from earlier sector‑wide sell‑offs. The current price of $312.00 sits 35.9 % below the 52‑week high of $418.90, suggesting room for upside if the company continues to beat expectations.
What does the recent earnings performance say about MACOM?
MACOM’s Q3 2026 earnings surpassed expectations with an EPS of $1.40 against a $1.37 estimate, marking a beat. Revenue matched the $342.0 million forecast, confirming strong demand in data‑center and 5G segments. In Q1 2025, the company posted $0.85 EPS versus a $0.84 consensus, with revenue of $236.0 million, indicating consistent profitability. These results suggest that MACOM is maintaining earnings momentum despite supply‑chain challenges. Analysts note that continued margin improvement could further support the stock’s valuation.
What are MACOM’s primary price drivers for the next quarter?
The next quarter’s price movement is likely to hinge on the company’s guidance for Q4 revenue and margin. A midpoint revenue forecast of $420 million, 14.8 % above analyst expectations, could lift sentiment. Additionally, any progress in mitigating supply‑chain constraints or securing new data‑center contracts would bolster confidence. Currency movements, especially a weaker U.S. dollar, could improve reported earnings. Finally, any regulatory updates on semiconductor tariffs could either support or dampen the outlook.
How does MACOM’s geographic mix influence its growth prospects?
MACOM’s revenue is diversified across the United States, Europe, and Asia, with each region contributing roughly a third of total sales. Growth in the Asia‑Pacific 5G rollout is expected to accelerate, while European data‑center expansion provides steady demand. U.S. domestic contracts for defense and medical applications add a layer of stability. However, currency fluctuations in the Euro and yen can affect earnings, especially if the U.S. dollar strengthens. The company’s global sales network positions it well to capture emerging market opportunities, but also exposes it to geopolitical risks.
What is MACOM’s capital return policy?
MACOM has historically focused on reinvesting earnings rather than distributing dividends. The company has not declared a dividend in the past fiscal year. Capital is allocated toward R&D to sustain its analog technology leadership and to strategic acquisitions that broaden its portfolio. This approach aligns with the company’s long‑term growth strategy, particularly in the evolving 5G/6G landscape.
How does MACOM’s valuation compare to its industry peers?
MACOM trades at a forward P/E of 134.17, significantly higher than the peer average of 29.1. This premium reflects market expectations of accelerated growth in high‑frequency analog components for 5G and 6G. The high valuation may also be influenced by recent earnings beats and a bullish analyst consensus. Investors should consider whether the company’s growth trajectory justifies the multiple, especially given margin pressures and competitive dynamics.
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