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SMTC·Semtech Corporation

$144.25
-16.01 (-9.99%)
After Hours
High
$157.00
Open
$153.10
Market Cap
15.37B
52W High
$201.99
Low
$133.65
P. Close
$144.25
P/E
45.76
52W Low
$58.09
Fwd P/E
27.36
DailyIQ Est.
$232.15
Inst. Ownership
52.6%
Short Interest
6.97%
Days to Cover
1.7
Technical Score (1D)
97
BULLISH
News Sentiment
64
BULLISH
On Oct 13, Semtech Corporation announced a new multi‑year manufacturing agreement with Tower Semiconductor that expands dedicated silicon germanium production capacity at Tower’s U.S., Israeli and Japanese fabs, targeting high‑speed optical and copper interconnects for artificial intelligence data‑centre infrastructure. The deal builds on a long‑standing partnership and is intended to help Semtech meet rising demand for its SiGe components. On the same day, BMO Capital raised its price target for Semtech to $230 from $155 while maintaining an Outperform rating, indicating strong confidence in the company’s growth prospects. The upgrade reflects analysts’ view that Semtech’s product portfolio and market positioning offer significant upside potential. Both reports highlight the company’s strategic moves to support AI data‑centre connectivity and the market’s positive assessment of its future prospects.
LOW TARGET
$195 +35.2%
2 analysts
MEAN TARGET
$220 +52.6%
5 analysts
HIGH TARGET
$300 +108.0%
18 analysts
PRICE RANGE
$195.00 - $300.00
SB / B / H / S / SS
5/16/2/1/1
DAILYIQ EST.
$232.15 (+61.0%)
Bought (1Y)
0 shares
$0
Sold (1Y)
85,970 shares
$13.5M
Green Jason ElliotEVP and CCO
Sell2,766 shares2026-10-07
HOU HONG QPresident and CEO
Sell2,000 shares2026-10-02
HOU HONG QPresident and CEO
Option Exercise6,483 shares2026-10-01
HOU HONG QPresident and CEO
Tax Withholding3,299 shares2026-10-01
HOU HONG QPresident and CEO
Option Exercise6,483 shares2026-10-01
View full insider trading history →
69/ 100
Bullish
Overall: Bullish
✓Revenue growing year over year
✕Negative net margin
✓Positive operating cash flow
Gross Margin
51.6%
Net Margin
-3.8%
Revenue CAGR
7.8%
Current Ratio
2.37x
Debt / Equity
0.89x
Return on Equity
-7.3%
View full financials →

EPS

EstBeatMiss
$0.30$0.52$0.73$0.94$1.16Q2'25Q2'27Q3'27
QtrEstActual+/−
Q3'27$1.06 - -
Q2'27$0.61$0.71+15.6%
Q2'25$0.40$0.41+2.2%

Revenue

EstBeatMiss
$234M$285M$336M$387M$438MQ2'25Q2'27Q3'27
QtrEstActual+/−
Q3'27$415M - -
Q2'27$335M$342M+2.0%
Q2'25 - $258M -
Full Earnings BreakdownEstimates, actuals, guidance, and historical context
→

Market Data

SMTC Stock Snapshot

BULLISH97/100
$148.50+$4.25 (2.9%)
Market cap
15.37B
P/E ratio
45.8
Day range
$133.65 – $157.00
News sentiment
64/100 · Bullish
Analyst target
$220.00 (+48.1%)
Consensus
Buy · 25 analysts
52-week range+155.6% off low · -26.5% from high
$58.09$201.99
Price $148.50 DailyIQ Est. $232.15

Trend, momentum and range position line up bullish on SMTC at the moment. The stock is liquid enough that positioning changes get absorbed without distorting the trend.

Reverse DCF

What growth is priced into SMTC?

RICH

At today's price, Semtech Corporation needs to grow free cash flow about 73.2% a year for the next 10 years to justify its valuation at a 15.37% cost of capital. Over its actual history it has compounded free cash flow at 3.0% a year, so the market is asking for 70.2 percentage points above its own delivered rate. On that basis SMTC looks priced above what its own growth record supports.

Implied FCF growth
73.2%
Historical FCF CAGR
3.0%
Growth gap
+70.2 pts
Verdict
RICH
Discount rate (WACC)
15.37%
Beta
2.08

Behaviour On Record

What SMTC's own history says about today's numbers

Realized volatility (21d)
80.5% 90th pct
Below its peak
-27.7%
vs 200-day average
+18.7%
Up days (1y)
52%

Semtech Corporation is currently running 80.5% annualised volatility over the last 21 sessions. Measured against SMTC's own 13 years of daily returns rather than a market-wide average, that is the 90th percentile — elevated for this stock, against a typical reading of 41.3%. The distinction matters because a number that looks calm for one stock is turbulent for another, and the absolute figure on its own tells you neither.

SMTC is trading -27.7% below its running peak. Across 12 full years on file, its median worst-drawdown-in-a-year was -32.1%, and the deepest was -71.5% in 2022. The current pullback is therefore shallower than what this stock gives back in a typical year, which is context worth having before treating it as a dislocation.

Price sits +18.7% from its 200-day moving average. Against every other day in its history, that gap ranks at the 70th percentile — a somewhat wider gap than its own norm. Over the past year SMTC closed higher on 52% of sessions, and it is currently 2 sessions into a falling streak.

On October specifically: over 14 years of records, SMTC finished the month higher 7 of 14 times, with a median return of -2.2% and an average of -4.9%. Its strongest month historically has been November at +9.9% on average, its weakest October at -4.9%. Seasonality is a weak signal on its own — a decade is a small sample and regimes change — but it is a real distribution rather than a rule of thumb.

Overnight risk is measurable too: SMTC has opened more than 2% away from the prior close in 355 of 3,268 sessions (10.9% of the time), with the largest gaps running +28.0% and -10.0%. For anyone holding through an event, that rate is a better guide to overnight exposure than the intraday range.

All figures computed from 3,269 daily closes between 2013-10-16 and 2026-10-15, split-adjusted, recomputed daily. Percentiles are against SMTC's own 13-year history, not a peer group or index.

Sector Rotation

Is money rotating into or out of SMTC's sector?

Semtech Corporation sits in the Semiconductors sector, currently ranked 6th of 12 GICS sectors by relative-strength rotation score (weakening). Within its narrower Semiconductors industry group, SMTC ranks 5th of 15 tracked industries, weakening.

Sector rank
#6 of 12
Sector state
Weakening
Sector rotation score
0
Industry rank
#5 of 15

Options Market

What is the options market pricing for SMTC?

CallsPuts

For Semtech Corporation's nearest expiry (2026-10-16, 1 days out), open interest is call-heavy, a bullish tilt (put/call ratio of 0.74), with at-the-money implied volatility around 159.8%. The options market is pricing roughly a ±10.4% move by that expiry — a range of about $161.71–$199.29.

Put/call ratio (2026-10-16)
0.74
ATM implied volatility
159.8%
Total open interest
16,628
Expected move by 2026-10-16
±10.4% ($161.71–$199.29)

Analyst Rating Changes

Are analysts turning bullish or bearish on SMTC?

BMO Capital most recently reiterated its rating on Semtech Corporation to Outperform on Oct 13, 2026 with a price target of $230 (from $155). Over the last 90 days, coverage has run 1 upgrade against 0 downgrades, a net bullish lean.

Latest action
BMO Capital — Outperform
90-day upgrades
1
90-day downgrades
0
Net rating momentum
+1
DateFirmActionRatingPrice target
Oct 13, 2026BMO CapitalMaintainedOutperform$155 → $230
Oct 5, 2026StifelMaintainedBuy$188 → $220
Oct 1, 2026OppenheimerMaintainedOutperform$200 → $225
Sep 23, 2026Seaport GlobalInitiatedBuy$200
Aug 27, 2026Northland Capital MarketsUpgradeMarket Perform → Outperform$182
Aug 27, 2026BairdMaintainedOutperform$225 → $300
Aug 26, 2026Morgan StanleyMaintainedEqual-Weight$175 → $195
Aug 26, 2026UBSMaintainedBuy$225 → $230
Aug 26, 2026NeedhamReiteratedBuy$200
Aug 24, 2026Roth CapitalMaintainedBuy$102 → $190
Aug 21, 2026BMO CapitalInitiatedOutperform$155
Aug 14, 2026NeedhamReiteratedBuy$200

ETF holders

ETFs holding SMTC

Top ETF holdersWeight

News Sentiment Analysis

Sentiment gathered from recent headlines

64/100
Strong NegativeNeutralStrong Positive
MODERATELY BULLISH

Recent News Coverage

Most recent articles, ranked by recency (click to expand).

10+ articles
What did this article say?
BMO Capital increased its price target for Semtech (SMTC) to $230 from $155, reflecting a bullish view on the company’s growth prospects. The brokerage maintained an Outperform rating, indicating confidence in Semtech’s ability to deliver earnings above market expectations. The upgrade suggests that analysts see significant upside potential in Semtech’s product portfolio and market positioning.
What did this article say?
On October 13, 2026, Semtech Corporation (SMTC) announced a new multi‑year manufacturing agreement with Tower Semiconductor (TSEM) to increase silicon germanium (SiGe) production capacity. The deal grants SMTC dedicated SiGe manufacturing slots at Tower’s U.S., Israeli, and Japanese fabs, enhancing supply resilience for high‑speed optical and copper interconnects used in AI infrastructure. The partnership, which has spanned roughly two decades, also outlines plans to develop next‑generation connectivity technologies. The expansion is expected to support growing demand for AI data‑centre connectivity and strengthen SMTC’s position in the high‑speed interconnect market.
What did this article say?
On October 13, 2026 Tower Semiconductor and Semtech announced an expanded multi‑year agreement to increase dedicated silicon germanium (SiGe) capacity at Tower’s global fab network. The deal builds on a 20‑year partnership and is aimed at supporting Semtech’s growing demand for optical and copper interconnects in next‑generation AI data center infrastructure. By securing additional capacity, Semtech can accelerate the deployment of power‑efficient analog connectivity solutions that help reduce data‑movement power consumption in AI workloads. The partnership is expected to strengthen both companies’ positions in the high‑performance semiconductor market and support future growth in AI and IoT applications.
What did this article say?
The release identified Semtech Corp (SMTC) among four high‑liquidity stocks deemed attractive for portfolio diversification. It emphasized that strong liquidity can support short‑term debt management but may also signal under‑utilized resources. No specific earnings, guidance, or operational updates for SMTC were disclosed, leaving the company’s outlook unchanged.
What did this article say?
On October 7, 2026, Semtech executive Jason Elliot Green sold 2,766 shares of the company for $526,508, as reported in a Form 4 filing. The sale reduced his holdings to 7,367 shares, leaving him with a modest stake in the firm. The transaction was disclosed publicly and did not trigger any regulatory concerns. While the sale may signal a lack of confidence from a senior executive, it represents a relatively small portion of the company’s outstanding shares and is unlikely to materially impact the stock’s valuation. The move is typical of routine portfolio adjustments by insiders.
What did this article say?
Semtech (SMTC) delivered an average annual return of 14.15% over the past two decades, outperforming the market by 5.05% on an annualized basis. The company’s market capitalization stood at $17.50 billion as of the publication date. The data highlights the firm’s long‑term growth trajectory but does not indicate any new catalysts or immediate changes to guidance.
What did this article say?
Northland Securities reduced its recommendation for Semtech (SMTC) from outperform to market perform, citing a more cautious outlook. The downgrade follows a review of the company’s recent earnings and guidance, which the firm deemed less favorable than previously expected. Analysts noted that the new rating reflects a shift in confidence but does not indicate a drastic change in the company’s fundamentals. The average analyst rating remains buy, with a mean price target of $208.67. This adjustment may influence investor sentiment and trading activity for SMTC shares.
What did this article say?
Semtech Corp. (SMTC) integrated its AirLink secure edge 5G/LTE routers with Palo Alto Networks’ Next‑Generation Firewalls, expanding its product reach into the cybersecurity ecosystem. The collaboration adds Palo Alto’s Trust Security and Zero Touch Public Key Infrastructure to SMTC’s portfolio, targeting utilities and critical infrastructure operators. The move is expected to strengthen AirLink’s competitive position and attract operators focused on compliance and security.
What did this article say?
Semtech (SMTC) was highlighted as a key player in the AI infrastructure boom, with its Q3 earnings expected to benefit from increased data‑center spending. The company also gained attention for its quantum computing initiatives, which are receiving growing commercial interest and government support. Analysts noted that while AI offers a near‑term earnings boost, quantum technology presents a larger long‑term upside albeit with higher execution risk. The article positioned SMTC as a compelling investment amid broader sector optimism, despite macro‑economic headwinds such as higher interest rates and inflation concerns.
What did this article say?
On October 1, 2026, Semtech CEO Hong Q Hou sold 2,000 shares worth $382,420, reducing his direct ownership to 65,976 shares while maintaining control of the company.

Technical Analysis

Real-time indicators across multiple timeframes

97
BULLISH
Momentum rank against about 1,000 stocks and ETFs for this timeframe.
Unlock full technicals
Create a free account to access more indicators and deeper timeframe data.
Institutional & Hedge Fund Ownership
25 tracked managers · $6.23B combined position · 10 adding, 15 trimming, 0 unchanged (latest 13F filings)
ManagerTrendShares Held% of Co.Position ValueFiled
BlackRock, Inc.▼ Sell9,749,43910.94%$1.58B2026-08-07
Vanguard Group Inc▲ Buy11,858,35213.31%$873.84M2026-01-29
Capital Research Global Investors▼ Sell2,954,4323.32%$478.17M2026-08-12
Geode Capital Management, LLC▼ Sell2,253,7862.53%$366.56M2026-08-12
Morgan Stanley▲ Buy1,970,1982.21%$318.88M2026-08-13
Wellington Management Group LLP▼ Sell1,915,7662.15%$310.07M2026-08-14
Bank of America Corp▲ Buy1,859,7822.09%$301.01M2026-08-14
Norges Bank▲ Buy1,247,8331.40%$201.96M2026-08-12
Millennium Management LLC▼ Sell1,141,5941.28%$184.77M2026-08-14
Northern Trust Corp▼ Sell852,1810.96%$137.93M2026-08-13
Two Sigma Investments, LP▲ Buy820,8980.92%$132.86M2026-08-14
JPMorgan Chase & Co▲ Buy833,6680.94%$130.84M2026-08-12
Citadel Advisors LLC▼ Sell783,3460.88%$126.78M2026-09-02
Artisan Partners Limited Partnership▼ Sell763,9240.86%$123.64M2026-08-13
Invesco Ltd.▼ Sell759,7550.85%$122.97M2026-08-14
AllianceBernstein L.P.▼ Sell1,567,0241.76%$120.49M2026-08-14
Goldman Sachs Group Inc▼ Sell720,5650.81%$116.62M2026-08-14
Susquehanna International Group, LLP▲ Buy689,3300.77%$111.57M2026-08-14
Point72 Asset Management, L.P.▼ Sell681,8750.77%$110.36M2026-08-14
Squarepoint Ops LLC▲ Buy658,5350.74%$106.58M2026-08-14
Neuberger Berman Group LLC▼ Sell541,3210.61%$87.40M2026-08-13
Citigroup Inc▼ Sell353,0760.40%$57.15M2026-08-03
Loomis Sayles & Co L P▼ Sell312,5280.35%$50.58M2026-08-14
D. E. Shaw & Co., Inc.▲ Buy272,3630.31%$44.08M2026-08-14
Renaissance Technologies LLC▲ Buy207,1160.23%$33.52M2026-08-13
Q2 2026 flow:4.43M sh bought ($716.27M)10.93M sh sold ($1.70B)net -6.50M sh (−$984.14M)
View full institutional holdings history →
Congressional Trading Activity
6 disclosed trades · ~$48.0K est. traded value · 2 buys, 4 sells
MemberChamberStateTypeAmountTradedFiled
Gilbert CisnerosHouseCA31▼ Sell$1K - $15K2026-09-292026-10-12
Gilbert CisnerosHouseCA31▼ Sell$1K - $15K2026-07-162026-09-04
Gilbert CisnerosHouseCA31▼ Sell$1K - $15K2026-06-302026-07-02
Gilbert CisnerosHouseCA31▲ Buy$1K - $15K2026-03-032026-04-07
Gilbert CisnerosHouseCA31▲ Buy$1K - $15K2025-09-022025-09-12
Thom TillisSenateNC▼ Sell$1K - $15K2015-02-132015-02-26
View full congressional trading history →

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